AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

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    Posted: 09 February 2009 03:44 PM #61

    Eric, any idea if that graph takes into account the total size of the U.S. workforce during those recessions?  I’m guessing that may smooth the graph out a bit, by exaggerating the older recessions and subduing the more recent ones.

    Just trying my hardest to make lemonade out of lemons…

         
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    Posted: 09 February 2009 03:44 PM #62

    chiforce - 09 February 2009 05:23 PM

    Cramar,

    I still say you have guts because, no matter what your models tell you, the mkt is trading on emotion, expectation, and other factors.  What will your trailing stop be around 103.60-104?


    Close!

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    Posted: 09 February 2009 03:50 PM #63

    ConMan - 09 February 2009 07:38 PM
    Eric Landstrom - 09 February 2009 07:31 PM
    superbaka - 09 February 2009 07:11 PM

    Eric

    Not sure what bothers you about that chart. Most indications on that chart show that we are near the bottom of job losses.

    As for steepness of decline, we know we are in a worse situation than previous recessions, thats priced into all markets right now. IMHO, we are weeding out many disfunctional american businesses - dying auto industry, coercive unions, poorly managed banks, etc. Citizens are learning to look at what their 401Ks and stock market indexes contain, etc. (Why did anyone own an index with F, Gm, BAC, etc in it??)

    This will be good in the long run.

    Market looks dead catish to me right now.

    Back to my I’m-all-out-of-good-ideas trades and wing some more money at oil or something until the market either pulls back more or goes higher so I can peel off some more profit.

    Feels like 2pm.

    It does, doesn’t it?

    Ironically Trader Monthly has shut down. I guess we’ll be the guys turning off the lights.

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
  • Posted: 09 February 2009 03:58 PM #64

    dc930 - 09 February 2009 07:44 PM

    Eric, any idea if that graph takes into account the total size of the U.S. workforce during those recessions?  I’m guessing that may smooth the graph out a bit, by exaggerating the older recessions and subduing the more recent ones.

    Just trying my hardest to make lemonade out of lemons…

    Eric, care to comment on me and dc930? smile Or just posting arbitrary charts with lots of doom and gloom on them?

         
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    Posted: 09 February 2009 04:07 PM #65

    Anyone know what time Geithner speaks tomorrow?  He’s on CNBC at noon so I’m guessing around 10:00AM.  Anyone know for sure?

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    NOBAMA / Carter 2012 - “Yes we can - we just figured out a way - it’s called the American deem”

         
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    Posted: 09 February 2009 04:16 PM #66

    superbaka - 09 February 2009 07:58 PM
    dc930 - 09 February 2009 07:44 PM

    Eric, any idea if that graph takes into account the total size of the U.S. workforce during those recessions?  I’m guessing that may smooth the graph out a bit, by exaggerating the older recessions and subduing the more recent ones.

    Just trying my hardest to make lemonade out of lemons…

    Eric, care to comment on me and dc930? smile Or just posting arbitrary charts with lots of doom and gloom on them?


    As I see it credit markets are continuing to tighten in anticipation of further slowing of sales. Effectively, lines of credit that have been previously extended to companies are being reduced and closed completely. This means that those companies are rushing to reduce liabilities from canceling vacation pay to flat out laying people off. The result of this is that the credit markets are creating their own self-fulfilling prophecy. Morons.

    Meanwhile, off of his rocker, Mr. Market has been scaling into stocks as though it was believed the economy would see a U-shaped bottom. But in point of fact what we have been seeing is an orderly short covering rally and now everybody is beginning to second guess Mr. Market’s enthusiasm.

    [ Edited: 09 February 2009 04:19 PM by Eric Landstrom ]

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 09 February 2009 04:21 PM #67

    Eric Landstrom - 09 February 2009 08:16 PM
    superbaka - 09 February 2009 07:58 PM
    dc930 - 09 February 2009 07:44 PM

    Eric, any idea if that graph takes into account the total size of the U.S. workforce during those recessions?  I’m guessing that may smooth the graph out a bit, by exaggerating the older recessions and subduing the more recent ones.

    Just trying my hardest to make lemonade out of lemons…

    Eric, care to comment on me and dc930? smile Or just posting arbitrary charts with lots of doom and gloom on them?


    As I see it credit markets are continuing to tighten in anticipation of further slowing of sales. Effectively, lines of credit that have been previously extended to companies are being reduced and closed completely. This means that those companies are rushing to reduce liabilities from canceling vacation pay to flat out laying people off. The result of this is that the credit markets are creating their own self-fulfilling prophecy. Morons.

    Meanwhile, off of his rocker, Mr. Market has been scaling into stocks as though it was believed the economy would see a U-shaped bottom. But in point of fact what we have been seeing is an orderly short covering rally and now everybody is beginning to second guess Mr. Market’s enthusiasm.

    The next aspect of the TALF is to extending financing to small business to help.  I also think with the failure of LEH and the incidents of September between freezing credit and no confidence that layoffs hit at a much faster pace than normal.  I do think we have more months of higher layoffs ahead but don’t think we are much further away from the bottom of the curve on that chart shown.

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    Posted: 09 February 2009 04:28 PM #68

    runedge - 09 February 2009 08:21 PM
    Eric Landstrom - 09 February 2009 08:16 PM
    superbaka - 09 February 2009 07:58 PM
    dc930 - 09 February 2009 07:44 PM

    Eric, any idea if that graph takes into account the total size of the U.S. workforce during those recessions?  I’m guessing that may smooth the graph out a bit, by exaggerating the older recessions and subduing the more recent ones.

    Just trying my hardest to make lemonade out of lemons…

    Eric, care to comment on me and dc930? smile Or just posting arbitrary charts with lots of doom and gloom on them?


    As I see it credit markets are continuing to tighten in anticipation of further slowing of sales. Effectively, lines of credit that have been previously extended to companies are being reduced and closed completely. This means that those companies are rushing to reduce liabilities from canceling vacation pay to flat out laying people off. The result of this is that the credit markets are creating their own self-fulfilling prophecy. Morons.

    Meanwhile, off of his rocker, Mr. Market has been scaling into stocks as though it was believed the economy would see a U-shaped bottom. But in point of fact what we have been seeing is an orderly short covering rally and now everybody is beginning to second guess Mr. Market’s enthusiasm.

    The next aspect of the TALF is to extending financing to small business to help.  I also think with the failure of LEH and the incidents of September between freezing credit and no confidence that layoffs hit at a much faster pace than normal.  I do think we have more months of higher layoffs ahead but don’t think we are much further away from the bottom of the curve on that chart shown.

    The bottom very soon camp believes that we see a bottom in June. The bottom in October camp (of which I am one) see the bottom in June guys giving us a bear market rally. This means that my camp is gaming the June camp. Meanwhile the bottom comes in 2010 and bottomless guys want to game both the June camp and the October camp.

    What everybody can agree on is that unemployment will continue to be sour for a couple of years after the bottom of the market. This means we see an extended U or possible a prolonged L bottom.

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 09 February 2009 04:30 PM #69

    dc930 - 09 February 2009 07:44 PM

    Eric, any idea if that graph takes into account the total size of the U.S. workforce during those recessions?  I’m guessing that may smooth the graph out a bit, by exaggerating the older recessions and subduing the more recent ones.

    Just trying my hardest to make lemonade out of lemons…

    I don’t know. Mayor Quimby passed them off to me I suspect he got them from the uber bears over at Market Ticker.

    Signature

    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 09 February 2009 04:30 PM #70

    superbaka - 09 February 2009 07:58 PM

    Eric, care to comment on me and dc930? smile Or just posting arbitrary charts with lots of doom and gloom on them?

    Comparison by absolute numbers of jobs lost is a red herring. In the same article that shows Eric’s graph here, Calculated Rick had sense enough to post the losses in percentage terms:

    Job Losses in Percentage Terms

    “For the current recession, employment peaked in December 2007, and this recession is about as bad as the 1981 recession in percentage terms at this point.”

    And we don’t have the extreme interest rates nor inflation of the ‘81 recession.
    Think of it this way: the US has lost ~2.5% employment since August (when it was ~5%). Doesn’t sound so scary now, does it?

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    Posted: 09 February 2009 04:34 PM #71

    bluebox - 09 February 2009 08:30 PM
    superbaka - 09 February 2009 07:58 PM

    Eric, care to comment on me and dc930? smile Or just posting arbitrary charts with lots of doom and gloom on them?

    Comparison by absolute numbers of jobs lost is a red herring. In the same article that shows Eric’s graph here, Calculated Rick had sense enough to post the losses in percentage terms:

    Job Losses in Percentage Terms

    “For the current recession, employment peaked in December 2007, and this recession is about as bad as the 1981 recession in percentage terms at this point.”

    And we don’t have the extreme interest rates nor inflation of the ‘81 recession.
    Think of it this way: the US has lost ~2.5% employment since August (when it was ~5%). Doesn’t sound so scary now, does it?

    That’s a much better chart. However, it suggests we’re heading into uncertain territory. The bears are going to have more upside risk even as there continues to be major downside risk for longs. Moreover, we need to be mindful of the market’s annual cycle as well.

    Signature

    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 09 February 2009 04:47 PM #72

    One thing I notice from both of those charts is that the rate of return is similar to the rate of decline.

         
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    Posted: 09 February 2009 04:59 PM #73

    At least we get the first close above $100 in a long time.

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    “Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.”    - Jesse Livermore

         
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    Posted: 09 February 2009 05:02 PM #74

    bluebox - 09 February 2009 08:30 PM

    Think of it this way: the US has lost ~2.5% employment since August (when it was ~5%). Doesn’t sound so scary now, does it?

    Hmmm, now the question is, what is the best representation of the data: the difference in the unemployment percentages, or a percent change OF the unemployment percentage?

    Meaning, if we were at 5% unemployment in August, and are now at 7.5%, that’s a 50% increase in the unemployment rate. 

    What was unemployment at the beginning of the ‘81 recession?  According to that chart, it bottomed out at around -3%, but if we started at 8%, then it was “only” a 37% increase in the unemployment rate.  Conversely, if we started at 3% unemployment, then it was a 100% increase, or twice as many people out of work than when the recession began.

    Given the time, I can look this all up, but in the meantime I think I’m just giving myself unnecessary headaches.  :bugeyed:

         
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    Posted: 09 February 2009 05:06 PM #75

    dc930 - 09 February 2009 09:02 PM
    bluebox - 09 February 2009 08:30 PM

    Think of it this way: the US has lost ~2.5% employment since August (when it was ~5%). Doesn’t sound so scary now, does it?

    Hmmm, now the question is, what is the best representation of the data: the difference in the unemployment percentages, or a percent change OF the unemployment percentage?

    Meaning, if we were at 5% unemployment in August, and are now at 7.5%, that’s a 50% increase in the unemployment rate. 

    What was unemployment at the beginning of the ‘81 recession?  According to that chart, it bottomed out at around -3%, but if we started at 8%, then it was “only” a 37% increase in the unemployment rate.  Conversely, if we started at 3% unemployment, then it was a 100% increase, or twice as many people out of work than when the recession began.

    Given the time, I can look this all up, but in the meantime I think I’m just giving myself unnecessary headaches.  :bugeyed:

    Of course, we could always bring back the “misery index” that was used in the late 70s, which was unemployment rate + interest rate + inflation rate.

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