AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

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    Posted: 25 February 2009 04:55 PM #91

    dc930 - 25 February 2009 08:21 PM
    Eric Landstrom - 25 February 2009 08:16 PM
    ConMan - 25 February 2009 07:36 PM
    Eric Landstrom - 25 February 2009 07:33 PM

    What’s the spot on Art’s forehead?

    It’s like an ink blot.

    It’s Ash Wednesday…and thus…it is ash.

    D’oh! I should have known.

    All those Lutherans in MN must be rubbing off on ya’  tongue laugh

     

    Lutherans heh. Too Augustinian.

    What I do know if that it is supposed to get down to 6?F Thursday night and we’re to get 6-12” of snow.

    Meanwhile the market is riding into the sunset.

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 25 February 2009 04:57 PM #92

    Look at C…talk about “pop and drop”.

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    “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”
    -John Maynard Keynes

         
  • Posted: 25 February 2009 04:58 PM #93

    Wow what a turnaround (again) - from 92.90 to 91.20.

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    “We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office.” - Aesop

         
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    Posted: 25 February 2009 05:00 PM #94

    incorrigible - 25 February 2009 08:44 PM
    cramar - 25 February 2009 08:39 PM

    My experience since I learned of EW about 30 years ago is that nobody using it alone will ever make money since IMHO it is only 20% accurate at predicting.

    My coin is 50% accurate.  tongue laugh

    Not under corrective waves. It is abysmal. Maybe 90% accurate at identifying that you are in a corrective wave, but virtually impossible to predict what form and how long that correction will take.

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    “Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.”    - Jesse Livermore

         
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    Posted: 25 February 2009 05:01 PM #95

    Should have known Obama was talking about financial regulations…he’s adopted Bush’s gift at tanking the markets.

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    “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”
    -John Maynard Keynes

         
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    Posted: 25 February 2009 05:12 PM #96

    ConMan - 25 February 2009 09:01 PM

    Should have known Obama was talking about financial regulations…he’s adopted Bush’s gift at tanking the markets.

    Look at the bright side: .gov is so incompetent that there is a chance they will fail to screw things up.

    You never know. It could happen.  :wink:

    Signature

    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 25 February 2009 05:19 PM #97

    cramar - 25 February 2009 09:00 PM
    incorrigible - 25 February 2009 08:44 PM
    cramar - 25 February 2009 08:39 PM

    My experience since I learned of EW about 30 years ago is that nobody using it alone will ever make money since IMHO it is only 20% accurate at predicting.

    My coin is 50% accurate.  tongue laugh

    Not under corrective waves. It is abysmal. Maybe 90% accurate at identifying that you are in a corrective wave, but virtually impossible to predict what form and how long that correction will take.

    Exactly. So what is the point? Better to sample market sentiment to get the gist of the market or, if you want to geek out, read Technical Analysis of Stock Trends and apply it (all the trend guys basically rehash the contents of this book).

    Signature

    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 25 February 2009 05:22 PM #98

    From reading Mace and Cramar, it seems EW theory is more a system of classification / description, not estimation / prediction.  A questionable analogy: I could say such and such hooves, antlers, etc = reindeer.  But if you tell me an animal we are partially observing has such a tail and hooves, but no further information, it might be very difficult to say (or ‘predict’) that it will turn out to be a reindeer.  :-?

    This week has been fairly confusing for me.  I held on to the shares I bought at 89.79 today because by Murphy’s Law I am hoping to drive down AAPL to where I’d really like it to be (I’m still 60 per cent cash not counting my long-term investment account).  Probably should have sold > 92 with the rest.

    Really, I should have been playing BAC all along.  Still don’t understand what the government is up to with the banks.  Dunno if I’ve enough energy to swot up on the latest developments this evening.

    Tomorrow: Dell!

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    Ah, love, let us be true to one another! for the world… hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light, nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain

         
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    Posted: 25 February 2009 06:16 PM #99

    Eric Landstrom - 25 February 2009 09:19 PM
    cramar - 25 February 2009 09:00 PM
    incorrigible - 25 February 2009 08:44 PM
    cramar - 25 February 2009 08:39 PM

    My experience since I learned of EW about 30 years ago is that nobody using it alone will ever make money since IMHO it is only 20% accurate at predicting.

    My coin is 50% accurate.  tongue laugh

    Not under corrective waves. It is abysmal. Maybe 90% accurate at identifying that you are in a corrective wave, but virtually impossible to predict what form and how long that correction will take.

    Exactly. So what is the point? Better to sample market sentiment to get the gist of the market or, if you want to geek out, read Technical Analysis of Stock Trends and apply it (all the trend guys basically rehash the contents of this book).

    Well Pretcher would say that if X and Y happens under EWT then Z is highly likely. Trouble comes in interpreting X and Y. What I tried to say is that EW is highly subjective in its interpretation. Rarely do Elliotticians agree. Has to be used in consort with other T/A stuff as you suggested. The good part about other T/A like a 200-day or 50-day MA is that it is absolute. Everyone has to agree that a MA is at xxx?there is no interpretation necessary.

    Trend guys can and do make a lot of money if they have a good system and follow it. Unfortunately trend following is just that?it follows the market. There is no predictive value in it. Some super-successful trend followers when asked what the market is going to do, have stated that they don’t know and don’t care. Unfortunately it goes against human nature. Everybody wants to know when the market will bottom and when it will peak. Like CNBC and Bloomberg when interviewing Charles Nenner. They didn’t care what he had to say other than to answer the question when will the market bottom? Why don’t they find and interview someone who has made a fortune in the last year with a trend following system and has no clue what the market will do?

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    “Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.”    - Jesse Livermore

         
  • Posted: 25 February 2009 06:33 PM #100

    Tony the tool defending DELL - it’s a buy!!! Hilarious!

    But at least he praises AAPL as well as a buy.

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    “We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office.” - Aesop

         
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    Posted: 25 February 2009 08:56 PM #101

    Eric Landstrom - 25 February 2009 09:12 PM

    Look at the bright side: .gov is so incompetent that there is a chance they will fail to screw things up.

    You never know. It could happen.  :wink:

    Kind of like when you put a roughed up dollar bill in a vending machine and it spits it back out.  Try it enough times and eventually the dollar is taken…

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    NOBAMA / Carter 2012 - “Yes we can - we just figured out a way - it’s called the American deem”

         
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    Posted: 25 February 2009 09:34 PM #102

    FWIW, Macke likes AAPL again.

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    “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”
    -John Maynard Keynes