Analyst downgrades AAPL to sell citing poor Mac sales

  • Posted: 24 February 2009 11:25 PM

    Well, I did not want to start a new topic for this, but search did not locate the collection of analyst updates that someone started a few weeks ago, so here it is.

    From Marketwatch, Calyon Securities (whoever) downgrades AAPL, citing poor Mac sales, high prices, lack of a netbook strategy, and SJ’s health.

    I don’t think any more of these clowns than does Andy, Deagol, or many others here, but we are probably advised to be aware of what they are saying.

         
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    Posted: 24 February 2009 11:29 PM #1

    Were you thinking of this thread, Capablanca?  Though it’s oriented towards Q1 analysis.

    Might be a good idea to start up a Q2-oriented thread as we march towards the next earnings report.

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  • Posted: 24 February 2009 11:39 PM #2

    That might have been it, but I don’t think so.  I do like your idea about a Q2 compilation of the various analyst estimates and updates.

         
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    Posted: 24 February 2009 11:48 PM #3

    All the while there are articles today stating that the high margin MPB is the best selling Mac at the majority of U.S. based Apple stores this month. In addition, an article at Appleinsider quoted an analyst at Piper Jaffray with a much more positive view of Apple’s Mac sales this quarter:

    Piper Jaffray, a firm that analyzes monthly retail sales data from market research group NPD, recently crunched figures for the month of January and estimated that Apple would sell 2 to 2.2 million systems during the three-month period ending March, representing a mere 6 percent decline from the year-ago quarter.

    “We believe this data will be perceived as a neutral or a slight positive given the uncertainty surrounding the [March] quarter,” he said.

    I would guess that some analysts do their homework, and some don’t.

         
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    Posted: 24 February 2009 11:54 PM #4

    Recently, the professionals have tended to come fairly close on unit volume but still miss earnings by a metre because they underestimate margins.  The strength of the MacBook Pro will be sorely needed come Q2 earnings (I for one suspect there may very well be a drop in Mac sales).

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  • Posted: 25 February 2009 04:09 AM #5

    capablanca - 25 February 2009 03:25 AM

    I don’t think any more of these clowns than does Andy, Deagol, or many others here, but we are probably advised to be aware of what they are saying.

    Please add me to that illustrious group. It’s hogwash.

         
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    Posted: 25 February 2009 09:08 AM #6

    capablanca - 25 February 2009 03:25 AM

    Well, I did not want to start a new topic for this, but search did not locate the collection of analyst updates that someone started a few weeks ago, so here it is.

    From Marketwatch, Calyon Securities (whoever) downgrades AAPL, citing poor Mac sales, high prices, lack of a netbook strategy, and SJ’s health.

    I don’t think any more of these clowns than does Andy, Deagol, or many others here, but we are probably advised to be aware of what they are saying.

    Caylon Securities doesn’t have a subscription to BusinessWeek: “Microsoft Earnings Update: “We Lost Maybe A Point Of Share” To Apple, Says Ballmer”

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    Tightwad.

         
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    Posted: 25 February 2009 09:57 AM #7

    It looks like Calyon are part of Credit Agricole, who are a French investment bank. They are likely just talking their book.

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  • Posted: 25 February 2009 09:58 AM #8

    We all know that even if sales slump (understandably) in this market, AAPL will beat street estimates because of those those little checks ATT keeps sending them for the first generation iPhones. Eventually that well may dry up; perhaps when ATT shifts to 4G or merely increases its 3G capacity at the expense of Edge coverage?a process already in progress. But in the mean time, the original iPhone is a gift that keeps on giving.  :-D

         
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    Posted: 25 February 2009 04:36 PM #9

    Market share is not the same as unit sales e.g. can have unit sales drop yet market share increase or unit sales increase yet market share drop.
    Market share measurement is arbitrary, invented by analysts for explaining what is going on.
    Businesses define their own competitive attributes and segment to compete in.  For example, I view MBAs, netbooks, iPod touch to be in the same Mobile Internet Device segment.  There are no public figures for viewing market this way, and as you notice the market share figures change dramatically when view from this perspective.

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    Posted: 26 February 2009 12:48 AM #10

    A nice piece by my favourite ‘geek’ site on Apple market share, comparing (and dissecting) browser stats, Gartner, IDC reports on retail shipments.

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    Ah, love, let us be true to one another! for the world… hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light, nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain