iPhone 3.0: What should we expect?

  • Posted: 15 March 2009 03:13 PM

    What should we expect from the public unveiling of iPhone 3.0 software this week?

    Might this be the last major upgrade available to the owners of the original iPhone handset as we approach two years since the original handset’s release?

         
  • Posted: 15 March 2009 05:36 PM #1

    I hope it doesn’t exclude those owners. Apple has a sizeable income streaming in each quarter from the deferred accounting on the ATT contracts. If too many users upgrade their contracts to a newer phone, I’m not sure what happens to those payments. Selling the older phone to someone else requires they have a new contract, of course; but will that contract be the cash cow that the first owner’s was? At what pint does Apple stop getting a share of the monthly fee?

         
  • Posted: 15 March 2009 06:03 PM #2

    willrob - 15 March 2009 08:36 PM

    At what pint does Apple stop getting a share of the monthly fee?

    It’s my understanding the recurring payments stop when an owner of an original iPhone handset upgrades their phone and commits to a subsidized contract on the new one. I have no idea what occurs when a legacy handset is activated by a new owner.

    The margin on 3G handsets is significantly higher than the original handsets. One way of looking at it is the increased handset revenue on the 3G iPhone is akin to an upfront payment from AT&T. Apple gets more cash upfront and defers recognition of the revenue over two years. It could be a case of six of this or one-half dozen of the other.  Only Apple has the cash in hand on the 3G handset soon after time of sale.

         
  • Posted: 15 March 2009 07:04 PM #3

    So at some point that extra cash added to the bottom line at earning’s reports will trickle down, and the bottom line will need to be reinforced by stronger unit sales on new handsets. Hopefully the latter can replace the former [parody of Cramer not intended LOL ]

         
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    Posted: 15 March 2009 08:20 PM #4

    DawnTreader - 15 March 2009 06:13 PM

    What should we expect from the public unveiling of iPhone 3.0 software this week

    Expect the unexpected. The iPhone’s shortcomings - no MMS nor Bluetooth file exchange - have been deliberately set up by Apple to emphasize it’s MobileMe service or to tie customers to a carrier data plan. Photos can be sent by e-mail from the iPhone, but only if you have a data plan with your carrier, and you know how to set up the e-mail application in the iPhone. Similarly, the Addressbook and Calendars are updated either by a cable, or wirelessly through Apple’s MobileMe service. If it could have been done through Bluetooth, less demand for MobileMe.
    As long as Apple’s business plan doesn’t change, I don’t expect big technological changes in the iPhone OS. I for one am too thrifty to buy MobileMe.

    DawnTreader - 15 March 2009 06:13 PM

    Might this be the last major upgrade available to the owners of the original iPhone handset as we approach two years since the original handset’s release?

    I don’t think that Apple would obsolesce iPhones so quickly. Some people paid $600 for the iPhone, and they would be pretty miffed if it became close to useless in two years. I know I would.

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    Posted: 16 March 2009 01:23 AM #5

    Sure would like to see “cut and paste” on the iPhone… would make the platform SOOOOO much more functional! 

    Does anyone see a reason why it wouldn’t be the next obvious step for Apple to take?

         
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    Posted: 16 March 2009 08:22 AM #6

    According to this article we will have our copy and paste this week!

    Copy paste

         
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    Posted: 16 March 2009 09:17 AM #7

    I have no idea what is in Iphone OS 3.0, but I think the functionality that will be demonstrated on the 17th will be backward compatible with existing models.  It is too early in the product life cycle to EOL any model.  That said I think when the new Iphone hardware is released it will bring with it new features which are not available to the existing models.  The release of the SDK will allow developers to modify or update their programs so we don’t have anarchy on the App store when 3.0 is released.  Wouldn’t it suck if Apple updates to 3.0 and then all your little extras don’t work.  I also think Apple will have a different phasing plan for this years hardware and software.  I’m hoping they put the software out first so the existing customer base has a chance to play.  This will keep customers who’s contract expire in June from jumping ship wether they switch to 3rd generation hardware or not.

    I would expect to see the Snow leopard code components migrate to the Iphone.  Safari 4.0 with its improved JavaScript webApps with HTML datastores.  Improved bluetooth stack functionality (file copy, stereo maybe keyboard) Tethering.  Increased Integration with Ilife, Iwork Apps.  New springboard. 

    The next version of hardware should have significantly better performance with similar power consumption,  This should open up tasks such as video record, voice recognition, text to speech, background processing.  Some of this will be difficult to make backward compatible so we’ll just have to wait and see.

    And of course we have cut/copy and paste and MMS

    Looking forward to the 17th grin

         
  • Posted: 16 March 2009 10:05 AM #8

    I don’t see any reason to believe that older iPhones will be locked out of future upgrades, just because their “2 years” have expired.

    These are handheld computers, remember. It would be like Apple saying, you can’t upgrade your old Mac to a new version of OSX, because it’s too old.

    (Yes, I know, that -has- happened, but it’s been for performance or hardware/processor reasons only, and for the kinds of features we’re talking about here, such as copy-and-paste, performance isn’t an issue).

    What would make more sense would be:

    - Past the 2 year “free update”/accounting cycle: charge for major firmware upgrade(s), and I would expect it we be along the lines of the $10 upgrade that’s been seen for the iPod touch in the past, no pain, and billed directly through iTunes. Nobody would complain about this.

    - Some future features of future firmware revs might not be functional on older hardware. For instance, multitasking could be limited or non-functional based on amount of system RAM (which is currently minimal) and/or processor speed. Video capture, likewise. We already have differences in hardware between iPhone 2.5G (which I still have, I’m waiting for the next iPhone to upgrade) and 3G and this is already accommodated by the firmware.

         
  • Posted: 16 March 2009 10:13 AM #9

    $Billyall - 16 March 2009 11:22 AM

    According to this article we will have our copy and paste this week!

    Copy paste

    Sometimes Kevin’s in the know, and sometimes he’s just blowing smoke.

    As for video being a technical problem, as he puts it, how is it available on jailbroken phones?

         
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    Posted: 16 March 2009 10:26 AM #10

    willrob - 16 March 2009 01:13 PM
    $Billyall - 16 March 2009 11:22 AM

    According to this article we will have our copy and paste this week!

    Copy paste

    Sometimes Kevin’s in the know, and sometimes he’s just blowing smoke.

    As for video being a technical problem, as he puts it, how is it available on jailbroken phones?

    Video/video iChat, rather than being technical,  is more likely a battery drain issue, which is a huge issue for a phone.

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  • Posted: 16 March 2009 10:34 AM #11

    Here’s a video clip of Kevin making his pronouncement. The video issue, he says, has something to fo with writing to flash too frequently can screw up the phone.

         
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    Posted: 16 March 2009 11:38 AM #12

    Does it strike anybody else as overkill that AAPL is planning a special event for a pre-announcement of an iPhone S/W upgrade?  It seems to me that there has to be something more.

    But perhaps not.  (As my mind flies back to the Apple Hi-Fi & leather case event.  :bugeyed: )

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    “Once we roared like lions for liberty; now we bleat like sheep for security! The solution for America’s problem is not in terms of big government, but it is in big men over whom nobody stands in control but God.”  ?Norman Vincent Peale

         
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    Posted: 16 March 2009 11:42 AM #13

    Play Ultimate - 16 March 2009 02:38 PM

    Does it strike anybody else as overkill that AAPL is planning a special event for a pre-announcement of an iPhone S/W upgrade?  It seems to me that there has to be something more.

    But perhaps not.  (As my mind flies back to the Apple Hi-Fi & leather case event.  :bugeyed: )

    I couldn’t agree more. It certainly would be a bit of a joke to have an event for just copy and paste. There has to be more to it, or Apple will be a laughing stock.

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  • Posted: 16 March 2009 11:55 AM #14

    wheeles - 16 March 2009 02:42 PM

    or Apple will be a laughing stock.

    No Pun intended?

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    Posted: 16 March 2009 12:23 PM #15

    rattyuk - 16 March 2009 02:55 PM
    wheeles - 16 March 2009 02:42 PM

    or Apple will be a laughing stock.

    No Pun intended?

    Funny, I briefly paused when I wrote that wondering if the phrase carried across the pond. If it’s a lacklustre event then, Apple -> laughing stock, AAPL -> crying stock.

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    Throughout all my years of investing I’ve found that the big money was never made in the buying or the selling. The big money was made in the waiting. ? Jesse Livermore