AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

  • Avatar

    Posted: 24 March 2009 07:00 PM

    cramar - 24 March 2009 08:08 PM

    Well…$109.44 might have been it! We’ll know for sure by the end of the week. But probability is good that this was the top. Satisfied a lot of technicals and things could now turn bearish for a while. Made new high near previous resistance, dropped almost $3 to close down on the day. Good bearish settup IMHO. Beside new high was made on lower stochastics reading than when AAPL hit $97 on Mar. 13. Bearish I say.

    I was thinking “this might be it” as I watched AAPL hit the 109’s today. Had my finger on the sell trigger of my C in return for going short AAPL. But I stopped in my tracks because I don’t believe the S&P us done going up. If the S&P had been up to 840 or better with AAPL at today’s high, I would have been all over the trade above. Unless AAPL is to be “used” by “them” to drive the S&P down hard tomorrow, I believe we will hold up resistance at 800 and aapl in the $104-105 range. To get AAPL all the way back to $95 from here, we’d need the S&P to fail bigtime and it just doesn’t feel like the market’s ready to cave that badly. Yet.

    FWIW - There was much positive talk on the AH shows yesterday of aapl and many mentions that it was bought at the $102-103 level. I really don’t think they turned around and sold it all today after all that gushing yesterday. I think today was a quick short scalp, along with few bank stocks.  :wink:

    If there’s a terrible backlash to President Obama’s press conference that airs tonight, or we miss big on the Durable Goods number in the morning, perhaps AAPL will not have to be used to break S&P 800. Closing as close as we did to it today will prove to be either an act of strong support or a total setup.

    So, those resistance numbers looking backwards to Oct-Nov when aapl was last at this level are: $109.72, $111.79, then $112.19.

    [ Edited: 26 March 2009 12:14 AM by DawnTreader ]      
  • Avatar

    Posted: 24 March 2009 07:51 PM #1

    kiwitrader - 24 March 2009 10:00 PM

    . . . or we miss big on the Durable Goods number in the morning, perhaps AAPL will not have to be used to break S&P 800. Closing as close as we did to it today will prove to be either an act of strong support or a total setup.

    So, those resistance numbers looking backwards to Oct-Nov when aapl was last at this level are: $109.72, $111.79, then $112.19.

    I held off doing anything at the close due to my fear of the New Home Sales numbers (10am) tomorrow. With existing homes doing well, I don’t know if it suggests new homes will be up or down?  :-?

    Signature

    “Once we roared like lions for liberty; now we bleat like sheep for security! The solution for America’s problem is not in terms of big government, but it is in big men over whom nobody stands in control but God.”  ?Norman Vincent Peale

         
  • Posted: 25 March 2009 12:34 AM #2

    Wednesday

    R4         119.37
      midpoint   117.35
    R3       115.32
      midpoint   113.30
    R2       111.27
      midpoint   110.16
    R1       109.05
      midpoint   108.14
    PP       107.22
      midpoint   106.11
    S1       105.00
      midpoint   104.09
    S2       103.17
      midpoint   101.15
    S3       99.12
      midpoint   97.10
    S4       95.07

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 25 March 2009 02:53 AM #3

    The talking heads are going to start talking about how people are becoming cautiously optimistic. If by optimistic we mean not getting your head chopped off, just your butt kicked every other day then it is a fine time for the counter-trend traders to build out positions.

    Anyway, since financials will likely lead if any leading is to be done let’s consider our mark to government work docket:


    3-23-09: Treasury announces plan to remove toxic assets from banks’ balance sheets.

    3-26-09: Treasury to announce plan for overhauling financial regulatory system.

    4-2-09: FASB vote on relaxing M2M.

    4-8-09: SEC vote on reinstating uptick rule.

    4-13-09: WFC and GS 1st quarter earnings release.

    4-16-09: JPM 1st quarter earnings release.

    4-17-09: C 1st quarter earnings release.

    4-20-09: BAC 1st quarter earnings release.

    4-30-09: Completion of bank stress tests.


    Disclosures: I have long positions of one stripe or another in C, TCB, BAC, FRE, FNM, NYX, WFC.

    [ Edited: 25 March 2009 02:57 AM by Eric Landstrom ]

    Signature

    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 25 March 2009 09:26 AM #4

    Looking over Eric’s calendar, it’s difficult to envisage this rally coming apart before April.  Presuming regulatory bodies vote for relaxing mark-to-market and reinstating the uptick rule, it will be earnings (both the banks and others) that could put paid to this rally.  But in any case, there doesn’t seem much to prevent this from becoming the ‘bear rally’ of 30 per cent or more and an eventual S&P of 900+.

    I’d be glad to be proven wrong, however.  :innocent:  I’ve almost no long positions save C and British oil right now.  Any other possible pitfalls before April earnings season?

    I doubt anyone is expecting fantastic news in terms of new home sales.  Everyone I know, including myself, is eyeing deals in pre-existing stock, waiting for that market’s bottom.

    Edited: Minyanville, in wondering if we were drinking the Kool-Aid, asked amongst other things whether anyone had $115 circled as ‘primary resistance’ for AAPL.  Where could they be getting 115 from?  (I know the Elliott Wave lads used to consider 110 a critical level.)

    [ Edited: 25 March 2009 09:29 AM by Winterpool ]

    Signature

    Ah, love, let us be true to one another! for the world… hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light, nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 25 March 2009 09:33 AM #5

    U.S. Feb. durable-goods orders up 3.4% vs fall 1.2% expected

    Signature

    “Knowledge speaks, but wisdom listens.”
    - Jimi Hendrix

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 25 March 2009 09:35 AM #6

    Nice durable goods orders!. Rally to continue?

    EDIT: A hex, a pox, and a curse on incorrigible, for having beat me to posting the news.

    Signature

    Tightwad.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 25 March 2009 09:38 AM #7

    awcabot - 25 March 2009 12:35 PM

    Nice durable goods orders!. Rally to continue?

    EDIT: A hex, a pox, and a curse on incorrigible, for having beat me to posting the news.

    I’m already cursed.  I’m out of AAPL awaiting a pullback.  tongue laugh

    Signature

    “Knowledge speaks, but wisdom listens.”
    - Jimi Hendrix

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 25 March 2009 09:39 AM #8

    For lack of better ideas, would it be silly to buy SSO this morning (something I forgot to do on Monday whilst I was fixated on banks and AAPL)?

    Edited: as a leveraged ETF, I’d probably hold it only for the day.  No government talking heads today?

    [ Edited: 25 March 2009 09:42 AM by Winterpool ]

    Signature

    Ah, love, let us be true to one another! for the world… hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light, nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 25 March 2009 09:40 AM #9

    Durable Good up 3.4%, Jan. revised down to -7.3%. Santelli called it “Suprisingly positive. But bad in the rearview mirror,” refering to the revision on the Jan. number.

    Honestly, why does this backwards looking stuff matter so much? I’m just going with the flow. The flow likes what happened 30 days ago and it affects how they will trade today.

    Speaking of today, Geithner is on with Liesman at noon.
    Edit: and the Fed will begin buying Treasuries today as well.

    [ Edited: 25 March 2009 09:47 AM by kiwitrader ]      
  • Avatar

    Posted: 25 March 2009 09:50 AM #10

    Did China Unicorn just confirm iPhone this morning?  I know there was that shot of the iPhone on China Unicorn webpage, but I can see a wire announcement on Google.

    Edited: the announcement (supposedly through Xinhua) is quoted on a forum, and one can’t help suspecting its provenance.

    [ Edited: 25 March 2009 09:53 AM by Winterpool ]

    Signature

    Ah, love, let us be true to one another! for the world… hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light, nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain

         
  • Posted: 25 March 2009 09:51 AM #11

    Given the upside surprise in the durable goods orders, I am surprised that the futures haven’t responded better this morning.  Still hoping for a pullback to get back in, but Eric’s calander has me thinking there may be more to this rally still to come. 

    To buy or not to buy ...

    Edit: Looks like a delayed reaction, futures now up 49 :evil:

    [ Edited: 25 March 2009 10:20 AM by HunterBob ]      
  • Avatar

    Posted: 25 March 2009 10:01 AM #12

    I’ve been waiting for a substantial pullback for a week now, and in that time AAPL has gone from 100 to 109.  It looks like intraday drops of a few dollars have had to provide our pullbacks this rally.

    Signature

    Ah, love, let us be true to one another! for the world… hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light, nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 25 March 2009 10:19 AM #13

    kiwitrader - 25 March 2009 12:40 PM

    Durable Good up 3.4%, Jan. revised down to -7.3%. Santelli called it “Suprisingly positive. But bad in the rearview mirror,” refering to the revision on the Jan. number.

    Honestly, why does this backwards looking stuff matter so much? I’m just going with the flow. The flow likes what happened 30 days ago and it affects how they will trade today.

    Kiwi, January’s figure was revised from -7.3% to -5.2%. The durable goods order for February is 3.4%, which may be revised in a month from now.

    Signature

    Tightwad.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 25 March 2009 10:20 AM #14

    Hunter and WP,

    I’m sure Eric also agrees that there will be pullbacks along the way, but maybe not as low as we thought on Friday (740), until earnings season kicks in. Just keep an eye on the stock’s behavior as it reaches the resistance numbers from Oct./Nov and Will’s PP’s. then factor in the behavior of the S&P as this market is still trading very much on technical S&R numbers of the indices. Art was on this A.M. reiterating that 804-800 must hold with the exception of a slip to 793 which is the current 50-MA of the S&P. “A drop below 793 may invite the shorts to come in.”

    Edit: AW, I must have totally misread. I thought the Jan. DGO was revised DOWN from -5.2% to -7.4%.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 25 March 2009 10:32 AM #15

    I think where I went wrong was Thursday - Friday (especially Thursday afternoon) when AAPL and S&P went in opposite directions.  I seem to recall this happening the last rally cycle as well: instead of recognising Apple’s strength when this occurs, I think to myself, ‘S&P is going down, AAPL must follow soon’, and fail to buy (I should have heeded Litespeed’s bullishness last week to treat any drop to 100ish a buying opportunity).

    Kiwi, did Art or anyone else seem to think S&P was in any jeopardy of losing 800 today?  I should think this morning should feel rather bullish given the news.

    Signature

    Ah, love, let us be true to one another! for the world… hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light, nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain