AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

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    Posted: 25 March 2009 11:27 AM #31

    Plato - 25 March 2009 02:23 PM
    Eric Landstrom - 25 March 2009 02:16 PM

    For this reason the March 23rd, 2009 cover of Newsweek had an image of Uncle Sam pointing his finger with the headline, “I WANT YOU TO START SPENDING: Invest in America?Before it’s too Late.”

    Link to article Stop Saving Now!

    The only problem is that, how can you spend when you don’t have money (no jobs - no money!). Oh, I forgot, use your home equity (if you have any left) and max out your credit cards!

    Sorry - end of rant! It’s just boggles my mind sometimes. I was raised that if you don’t have the money, you don’t buy it, period!

    If in debt, pay off your debt. If not in debt, go purchase something shiny.

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 25 March 2009 11:28 AM #32

    Chinese and Russians are pushing a new currency, possibly managed by IMF.  The French have for a long time resented the ‘unfair advantage’ of the dollar, and the Euro was to some extent intended to compete with the US dollar as global reserve currency.

    We could stand to undergo the discipline of having a non-reserve currency (which is inevitable in the long term anyhow), and I might rather have it be Federation Credits rather than Chinese Renminbi.

    Remember, much of the ‘good news’ of the past couple of weeks will almost certainly mean significantly higher inflation in the long run, which is what most of us have expected with any recovery.  I still think an ‘inflation bomb’ will be needed to tidy up our common debts, and that will put paid to Chinese support for the dollar.

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    Ah, love, let us be true to one another! for the world… hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light, nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain

         
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    Posted: 25 March 2009 11:31 AM #33

    Eric, I don’t know if you’ve ever expressed an opinion on the use of inflation to deflate American debt, both public and private—an option available to us since we borrow in dollars (that ‘unfair advantage’).  If we resort to that option, the reign of the dollar as global reserve currency will probably end—are you against that escape strategy then?  Many economists feel inflation is the endgame for our unsustainable debts.

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    Ah, love, let us be true to one another! for the world… hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light, nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain

         
  • Posted: 25 March 2009 11:32 AM #34

    Eric Landstrom - 25 March 2009 02:27 PM
    Plato - 25 March 2009 02:23 PM
    Eric Landstrom - 25 March 2009 02:16 PM

    For this reason the March 23rd, 2009 cover of Newsweek had an image of Uncle Sam pointing his finger with the headline, “I WANT YOU TO START SPENDING: Invest in America?Before it’s too Late.”

    Link to article Stop Saving Now!

    The only problem is that, how can you spend when you don’t have money (no jobs - no money!). Oh, I forgot, use your home equity (if you have any left) and max out your credit cards!

    Sorry - end of rant! It’s just boggles my mind sometimes. I was raised that if you don’t have the money, you don’t buy it, period!

    If in debt, pay off your debt. If not in debt, go purchase something shiny.

    Yes, that’s what I am saying. But most people buy shiny things and don’t pay off their debt!

    Btw - it’s getting pretty obvious that you own the stock of the company that makes these shiny things! So, stop promoting.  tongue laugh LOL

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    “We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office.” - Aesop

         
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    Posted: 25 March 2009 11:38 AM #35

    Plato - 25 March 2009 02:17 PM
    ConMan - 25 March 2009 02:11 PM

    This headline on CNBC.com is worrisome:

    “Dollar Drops After Geithner Says US Is Open to Idea of Global Currency”

    I also think Obama’s budget plan is worrisome - with a debt of more than $3T, guess what that does to the inflation and the dollar over the next 3-5 years!

    The dollar will be sacrificed!

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    “Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.”    - Jesse Livermore

         
  • Posted: 25 March 2009 11:39 AM #36

    Eric Landstrom - 25 March 2009 02:25 PM
    ConMan - 25 March 2009 02:11 PM

    This headline on CNBC.com is worrisome:

    “Dollar Drops After Geithner Says US Is Open to Idea of Global Currency”

    Normally we wait at least 12 years before confirming but Geithner has indeed confirmed that he is an idiot. At any-rate, every time the US economy tanks people call for removal of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

    Agreed. Why aren’t we hearing more calls for his resignation? I’m sorry to say it (and I don’t mean this as a personal attack), but he’s starting to come across as a wing nut and the AIG scandal has cost him what might have remained of his credibility.

         
  • Posted: 25 March 2009 11:41 AM #37

    Eric Landstrom - 25 March 2009 02:27 PM

    If in debt, pay off your debt. If not in debt, go purchase something shiny.

    I also suggest consumers think twice before spending. Better to pay off debt, not incur additional debt and seek well-established channels for tax-deferred earnings.

         
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    Posted: 25 March 2009 11:48 AM #38

    DawnTreader - 25 March 2009 02:39 PM

    Agreed. Why aren’t we hearing more calls for his resignation? I’m sorry to say it (and I don’t mean this as a personal attack), but he’s starting to come across as a wing nut and the AIG scandal has cost him what might have remained of his credibility.

    It has been discussed. However, with the challenges that some of Obama’s nominees have had in getting confirmed, firing Geithner at this point in time may reflect more on Obama’s adminitrative management than on Geithner.  According to some that I have heard, he is on limited time but the plan is to wait 6 mos. or so before replacing him.  Further, replacing Geithner after a bank plan is presented would give the new Treasury secy. a chance to come up with a new plan if Geithner’s didn’t work.

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    “Once we roared like lions for liberty; now we bleat like sheep for security! The solution for America’s problem is not in terms of big government, but it is in big men over whom nobody stands in control but God.”  ?Norman Vincent Peale

         
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    Posted: 25 March 2009 11:48 AM #39

    Winterpool - 25 March 2009 02:31 PM

    Eric, I don’t know if you’ve ever expressed an opinion on the use of inflation to deflate American debt, both public and private—an option available to us since we borrow in dollars (that ‘unfair advantage’).  If we resort to that option, the reign of the dollar as global reserve currency will probably end—are you against that escape strategy then?  Many economists feel inflation is the endgame for our unsustainable debts.

    Several months ago I pushed back on Andy’s (Bullish Cross Andy) overly optimistic AAPL guidance by suggesting that the economy would wind down to a culturally derived sustenance level and that the increased inclination to save would be the engine that I expected to drive the economy down to that level. Everybody who saw the writing on the wall sold out of long positions fled to cash and shorted everything.

    At any-rate: inflation is the only way we can get out of this mess. Bernanke is well aware that at some point we will need to inflate our way out of this mess and so after getting a clue about what was taking place (which took him 12 months longer than every trader in the world to arrive at), Bernanke raced the prime to nearly zero because it is easier on the economy to inflate from near zero than from say four or five percent. Bernanke hopes to manage inflation keeping it abreast with renewed growth because he knows that he cannot outpace wage inflation. If he outpaced wage inflation, then increasing inflation would become crippling and we start talking smack about warlording, personal fiefdoms and retaining henchmen again.

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
  • Posted: 25 March 2009 11:49 AM #40

    artman1033 - 25 March 2009 02:43 PM

    [

    I am tempted to post some more disturbing earnings call transcripts. But I am sure someone will call them “inane”. So I will refrain.
    HA. HA.

    Forgive, brother. Isn’t that what you often hear on Sundays? Besides, the earnings transcript posts are only inane if they mention inflated dough of another kind.  :wink:

         
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    Posted: 25 March 2009 11:51 AM #41

    DawnTreader - 25 March 2009 02:39 PM
    Eric Landstrom - 25 March 2009 02:25 PM
    ConMan - 25 March 2009 02:11 PM

    This headline on CNBC.com is worrisome:

    “Dollar Drops After Geithner Says US Is Open to Idea of Global Currency”

    Normally we wait at least 12 years before confirming but Geithner has indeed confirmed that he is an idiot. At any-rate, every time the US economy tanks people call for removal of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

    Agreed. Why aren’t we hearing more calls for his resignation? I’m sorry to say it (and I don’t mean this as a personal attack), but he’s starting to come across as a wing nut and the AIG scandal has cost him what might have remained of his credibility.

    He will do as the REAL MASTERS tell him to do.

    Do you for one minute think he does anything on his own? If so, I have some shares of my Chinese pig farm [FEED] that are worth speculating on, let you have them cheap.

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    “Even in the worst of times, someone turns a profit. . ” —#162 Ferengi: Rules of Acquisition

         
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    Posted: 25 March 2009 11:51 AM #42

    I confess I’m a little surprised by the sentiment expressed on the board this morning.  Don’t we need consumer spending to restore the economy?  Don’t we need debt-financed government spending to help make up the gap in production (and thus use of our assets, including labour) and at least hold the line if not stimulate a recovery?  (As I’ve stated before, I may be ‘right-wing’, but everyone’s a Keynesian under threat of deflation.)

    Am I in Hooverville?  :wink:  Do we want to replicate Japan’s ‘lost decade’?  Concentrating on paying our debts in the old-fashioned way seems a recipe for economic stagnation and a sluggish recovery.

    Edited: ah, I remember Eric’s scepticism in the face of Andy’s belief that good old fashioned American overconsumption would come roaring back.  I know you won’t reveal any ‘trade secrets’ of course, but I’m curious, Eric, given your economic outlook, what your truly long-term (multi-year positions) would be—if you even invest for such a far-off horizon.  :wink:

    [ Edited: 25 March 2009 11:56 AM by Winterpool ]

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    Ah, love, let us be true to one another! for the world… hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light, nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain

         
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    Posted: 25 March 2009 11:53 AM #43

    Plato - 25 March 2009 02:32 PM
    Eric Landstrom - 25 March 2009 02:27 PM
    Plato - 25 March 2009 02:23 PM
    Eric Landstrom - 25 March 2009 02:16 PM

    For this reason the March 23rd, 2009 cover of Newsweek had an image of Uncle Sam pointing his finger with the headline, “I WANT YOU TO START SPENDING: Invest in America?Before it’s too Late.”

    Link to article Stop Saving Now!

    The only problem is that, how can you spend when you don’t have money (no jobs - no money!). Oh, I forgot, use your home equity (if you have any left) and max out your credit cards!

    Sorry - end of rant! It’s just boggles my mind sometimes. I was raised that if you don’t have the money, you don’t buy it, period!

    If in debt, pay off your debt. If not in debt, go purchase something shiny.

    Yes, that’s what I am saying. But most people buy shiny things and don’t pay off their debt!

    Btw - it’s getting pretty obvious that you own the stock of the company that makes these shiny things! So, stop promoting.  tongue laugh LOL

    I’m honestly talking my book.  :innocent:

    However, last week I basically shared my playbook. And I’ve been very upfront with the overarching market themes and expected sector rotations.

    For example if banks hit my April targets, I’ll roll my investments out of financials leaving the houses money behind and rotate it into junk that would hurt if I dropped it on my foot. In this way I get a “free position” in the financials and I’ll have exposure in what must see growth when the economy does begin to right itself.

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 25 March 2009 11:53 AM #44

    TanToday - 25 March 2009 02:51 PM
    DawnTreader - 25 March 2009 02:39 PM
    Eric Landstrom - 25 March 2009 02:25 PM
    ConMan - 25 March 2009 02:11 PM

    This headline on CNBC.com is worrisome:

    “Dollar Drops After Geithner Says US Is Open to Idea of Global Currency”

    Normally we wait at least 12 years before confirming but Geithner has indeed confirmed that he is an idiot. At any-rate, every time the US economy tanks people call for removal of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

    Agreed. Why aren’t we hearing more calls for his resignation? I’m sorry to say it (and I don’t mean this as a personal attack), but he’s starting to come across as a wing nut and the AIG scandal has cost him what might have remained of his credibility.

    He will do as the REAL MASTERS tell him to do.

    Do you for one minute think he does anything on his own? If so, I have some shares of my Chinese pig farm [FEED] that are worth speculating on, let you have them cheap.

    I have some tulip bulbs to sell as well. :wink:

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    “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”
    -John Maynard Keynes

         
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    Posted: 25 March 2009 11:54 AM #45

    Eric Landstrom - 25 March 2009 02:48 PM

    At any-rate: inflation is the only way we can get out of this mess. Bernanke is well aware that at some point we will need to inflate our way out of this mess and so after getting a clue about what was taking place (which took him 12 months longer than every trader in the world to arrive at), Bernanke raced the prime to nearly zero because it is easier on the economy to inflate from near zero than from say four or five percent. Bernanke hopes to manage inflation keeping it abreast with renewed growth because he knows that he cannot outpace wage inflation. If he outpaced wage inflation, then increasing inflation would become crippling and we start talking smack about warlording, personal fiefdoms and retaining henchmen again.

    Oh, boy, you are catastrophic. How about the old-fashioned way of actually paying back the debts? Inflation may seem an easy cure to debt, but it increases uncertainty, which scares away (real) investments. I don’t think any competent banker would like to see inflation.

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    Tightwad.