AAPL FQ 2 ‘09 Estimates

  • Posted: 12 April 2009 07:56 AM #16

    Stephen Rosenman, Seeking Alpha:

    Analyst consensus for the quarter is $1.08. Seems way too low. In fact, it’s way off base again. After all, the analyst community traditionally undervalues Apple’s (AAPL) ability to make money. The last four quarters, Apple surprised by 8.4%, 10.2%, 13.5%, and 28.1%. Next quarter should be no different.

    Remember that iPhone sales are recognized over an eight quarter period. Those iPhone sales have been accumulating and are about to snowball into declared profits. At the end of last quarter, 13 million had been sold. One eighth of those profits will now be recognized this quarter. How much is that? To help figure that out, we must first determine the net profit of iPhones sold. Last quarter, Apple sold 4.4 million iPhones. In its Q1 2009 earnings release, Apple posted $699 million in non-GAAP earnings adjustments to help account for these. That works out to a profit of $159 a phone. It’s actually more because some of the GAAP earnings are backed out when the old iPhone sales are removed in factoring the non-GAAP. We’ll take the $159 as a very low ball figure. Therefore, the previous 13 million iPhones should generate earnings of $2.07 billion over the course of their 24 month subscription. One eighth is recognized this quarter, $258 million or $0.29 a share in profit.

    Apple’s cash alone brings in $675 million in interest a year. Take out taxes and you get $0.13 a share.

    So, before Apple sold one product this quarter, it’s already brought in $0.42. And, as mentioned, that’s a very low ball estimate of the old iPhone contribution.

    Will this quarter’s earnings from Apple’s notebooks, iPods, desktops, software, and new iPhones only come to $0.66? Most unlikely.

         
  • Posted: 12 April 2009 07:20 PM #17

    Will this quarter?s earnings from Apple?s notebooks, iPods, desktops, software, and new iPhones only come to $0.66? Most unlikely.

    4th qtr of 07 AAPL earned a dollar with no iPhone revenue. Seems to this untrained earnings observer that $ 1.30 is plausible.

         
  • Posted: 13 April 2009 09:48 AM #18

    For what it’s worth, these are my estimates:

    Unit Data:
    2.35 Million Macs @ $1,400 ASP = $3.290 Billion
    10 Million iPods @ $170 ASP = $1.700 Billion
    iPhone 3.2 Million ($650 ASP) = $1.500 Billion
    iTunes: $1000 Million
    Software: $500 Million
    Hardware: $300 Million
    Revenue: $8.290 Billion

    Q209 Income Statement (in millions):
    Revenue: $8,290
    GM (34%): $2,818
    OpEx: $1,300
    OpIn: $1,518
    OI&E: $120
    EBT: $1,638
    Taxes (30%): $491
    Net Income: $1,147
    Shares: 900
    EPS: $1.275

         
  • Posted: 19 April 2009 07:55 AM #19

    Andy, nrabinov: Have you got non-GAAP numbers for Q2 2009 Revenue and EPS?

         
  • Posted: 19 April 2009 09:35 AM #20

    philiped - 19 April 2009 10:55 AM

    Andy, nrabinov: Have you got non-GAAP numbers for Q2 2009 Revenue and EPS?

    Non-GAAP should be around 10-15 cents more than GAAP (around $500-600M of unrecognized revenue this quarter).

         
  • Posted: 19 April 2009 04:49 PM #21

    My calculations for Q2 ‘09 are $1.29 GAAP and $1.41 Non-GAAP, based on sales of Mac hardware/software reported by others.  I carve out iPhones as a separate component of Apple’s business, so I’m glad to see others coming up with similar EPS #s.

         
  • Posted: 19 April 2009 07:56 PM #22

    Meanwhile Street consensus sits at $1.09 per share. At $1.29 per share we’re looking at a 15% surprise. That should wake the market.

         
  • Posted: 19 April 2009 08:53 PM #23

    DawnTreader - 19 April 2009 10:56 PM

    Meanwhile Street consensus sits at $1.09 per share. At $1.29 per share we’re looking at a 15% surprise. That should wake the market.

    Sorry, but as mr. cynical, the market won’t be interested. (too many people buying cheap netbooks grin )

    Signature

    .

         
  • Posted: 19 April 2009 10:14 PM #24

    With the majority of S & P 500 reporting YOY lower earnings, a 15% bump from AAPL certainly makes them one of the brighter bulbs on the chandelier. And those still with jobs are looking for a place for that retirement money.

         
  • Posted: 20 April 2009 05:57 AM #25

    DawnTreader - 19 April 2009 10:56 PM

    Meanwhile Street consensus sits at $1.09 per share. At $1.29 per share we’re looking at a 15% surprise. That should wake the market.

    Apple stock has already advanced 55% this year. Not at all sure a 15% earnings beat will significantly add to that.

    Much more important will be guidance, which, in all probability will be rather conservative. I don’t expect the stock to move much on Thursday.

    I expect major activity around June (WWDC, Steve).

         
  • Posted: 20 April 2009 07:40 AM #26

    nrabinov - 20 April 2009 08:57 AM
    DawnTreader - 19 April 2009 10:56 PM

    Meanwhile Street consensus sits at $1.09 per share. At $1.29 per share we’re looking at a 15% surprise. That should wake the market.

    Apple stock has already advanced 55% this year. Not at all sure a 15% earnings beat will significantly add to that.

    Much more important will be guidance, which, in all probability will be rather conservative. I don’t expect the stock to move much on Thursday.

    I expect major activity around June (WWDC, Steve).

    I’m not convinced that a large cap stock is guided by more than the market in general. AAPL’s 12 month history of increasing earnings and falling price give some credence to this view. However in a bottoming or rising market those stocks with yoy increasing earnings history could have their price rewarded by continuing that trend. This in the face of recent earnings declines of their peers.

    But who can say?

         
  • Posted: 20 April 2009 10:12 AM #27

    Sometimes a picture is worth 1,000 words.

    Below is a graph that shows the iPhone’s contribution to Apple’s overall EPS.  It’s a locomotive.  Apple’s Q2 2009 marks a solid beginning for continued growth in EPS from the iPhone. 

    I show the EPS in two parts:  1.  iPhone (top) and 2. Everything Else (bottom).  From Sept. 2008 to Sept. 2010.

    Image Attachments

    Apple.jpg

    Click thumbnail to see full-size image

         
  • Posted: 22 April 2009 09:10 AM #28

    DawnTreader - 19 April 2009 10:56 PM

    Meanwhile Street consensus sits at $1.09 per share. At $1.29 per share we’re looking at a 15% surprise. That should wake the market.

    I think $1.29 will wake the market.  As it should.