Last week was just B. Hussein Oh’Bahama’s HISSY FIT over voters telling him he really ISN’T the MESSIAH.

He just hasn’t realized or accepted. that his “water walking days” are coming to an end.

And the banks brought him to the party, Goldman et al, put him in office, or financed a good portion of that campaign, so the bank stuff was just grandstanding and will go nowhere but smoke and mirrors, and this week the smarter investor will realize that.

Mace - 24 January 2010 06:15 AM

Any more guys want to challenge Prechter’s forecast that market has peaked?  For example, you could say that this is a short-term correction, market would soon resume its rally.  If you think so, please provide some FA or TA reasons that support this possibility.

FWIW, methinks the closest support is the channel drawn from Aug-Sept-Nov lows (at ~1,082 now), which coincides closely enough with 100sdma (~1,085 now), which is also quite a strong support from a bunch of Nov-intraday lows (~1,085). So IMO 1,082-1,085 should be very tough to break, but if it does, you know your SPXUs will be doing awesome.

Even though it has finally broken the March low channel, apparently it’s still considered as OK as long as it bounces back up quickly enough - which I can’t dismiss altogether as a possibility neither.

So having these combined, there’s still a possibility that not everything is finished yet and we can resume rallying after this (at the time being) ‘tiny’ correction.

Disclosure: Longing both AAPL and SPXU.

Glenn Neely said S&P is now in multi-month decline retracing between 60% to 90% of advance since Mar 09.  I take it that he is talking about wave two’s retracement.

Henry Blodget thinks suckers’ rally is over.

S&P futures at 1,084 now… Asia’s mostly red, Europe’s all red. Today might very well be the confirmation-day for the beginning of the next big leg down…

Sucks that this coincides with what’s arguably Apple’s biggest product announcement day ever…

Lord Fawkward,

Have been pondering over what u have said.  Robert Prechter thinks US economy would be in deflation till max 2014.  He might be underestimating the length.  Evidence indicates that it could last till 2023 .  The pop from 2014 to 2017 is a multi-year sucker rally, if I may use the term.  2007 is the start of a multi-decade decline.  Well, AAPL would not be in multi-decade decline but would be affected unfavorably.  Those who expect stratospheric P/E for AAPL would be disappointed.  P/E (fwd) of 15-20 would be reasonable.

capablanca, mbeauch, artman, DT, TanToday, Deagol and other fellow Americans,

What do you think?

Mace - 08 February 2010 10:57 PM

What do you think?

  I think you may have lost it personally.

artman1033 - 08 February 2010 11:33 PM

The taxes used to finance police, firemen and basic services are based on the COST of housing.
We really need healthcare reform. It is Medicare with President Bush’s prescription medicine reform that will NOW be bankrupt before Social Security.

Real estate taxes are based on both assessed valuation and millage rate (really a %), at least here in Seattle/Bellevue.  If real estate values fall, millage rates go up, so there’s a kind of equilibrium that supports those community services.  I challenge my assessed valuation annually and have not lost yet. 

I agree with you completely re: President Bush’s prescription “reform”, and it needs to be part of any new health care package.  Let’s start with a clean sheet with the requirement that reform cannot run over 50 pages long!

Fellow Americans,

What is the bottom line?  Recession not over?  Recession over but recovery is still spotty?  No clue?  My thought is we’re in the beginning of a depression that could last till 2023.  Despite that, Apple business could be doing extremely well but that doesn’t imply AAPL would be roaring.  AAPL could still be going up but not to those prices that we hope would be in a booming economy and an euphoric market.

Note:  Please don’t shoot the messenger of bad news when the predicted bad events really happen. I’m not Roger Babcock. Neither am I Jesse Livermore.

Edit:

Roger Babcock:  Roger Babcock predicted the 1929 crash.  Everyone who heard his prophecy thought he was a mad man, because this was a time when people thought that the stock market had reached a plateau where it could not fall lower.  After the crash had happened, people did not see Roger Babcock as a knowledgeable man, but instead, held inquiries as to whether he had any insider information to justify his ability to make such an accurate prediction.  If I am not mistaken, Babcock ended in a mental asylum.

Jesse Livermore:  He also predicted the Great Crash of 1929. In contrast to Roger, he made more than US$100 million in this stock market crash.  However, Jesse Livermore eventually committed suicide by putting a bullet through his head.

Edit2:

I’m also not Robert Prechter .  Robert Prechter, the Elliott Wave Guru, stuck his neck out and made extremely gloomy predictions on the stock market in the 1980s.  His prediction did not come true, and he has been ridiculed by most people, ever since.

Mace - 09 February 2010 12:17 AM

Roger Babcock predicted the 1929 crash.  Everyone who heard his prophecy thought he was a mad man, because this was a time when people thought that the stock market had reached a plateau where it could not fall lower.

The big difference here is that a LOT of people are predicting just this sort of event. I’d say those that are in the minority are looking for a push higher.

Mace - 09 February 2010 12:17 AM

Fellow Americans,

What is the bottom line?  Recession not over?  Recession over but recovery is still spotty?  No clue?  My thought is we’re in the beginning of a depression that could last till 2023.  Despite that, Apple business could be doing extremely well but that doesn’t imply AAPL would be roaring.  AAPL could still be going up but not to those prices that we hope would be in a booming economy and an euphoric market.

Note:  Please don’t shoot the messenger of bad news when the predicted bad events really happen. I’m not Roger Babcock. Neither am I Jesse Livermore.

Edit:

Roger Babcock:  Roger Babcock predicted the 1929 crash.  Everyone who heard his prophecy thought he was a mad man, because this was a time when people thought that the stock market had reached a plateau where it could not fall lower.  After the crash had happened, people did not see Roger Babcock as a knowledgeable man, but instead, held inquiries as to whether he had any insider information to justify his ability to make such an accurate prediction.  If I am not mistaken, Babcock ended in a mental asylum.

Jesse Livermore:  He also predicted the Great Crash of 1929. In contrast to Roger, he made more than US$100 million in this stock market crash.  However, Jesse Livermore eventually committed suicide by putting a bullet through his head.

Edit2:

I’m also not Robert Prechter .  Robert Prechter, the Elliott Wave Guru, stuck his neck out and made extremely gloomy predictions on the stock market in the 1980s.  His prediction did not come true, and he has been ridiculed by most people, ever since.

Who gives a s…t…. the world will end in 2012…. the Mayans and Nostradamus told me so….

however…all explanations of their predictions where man-made centuries later…..so…

I’m not sure about the short term “bottom.” It all may go lower. But what I think is a real possibility is the indexes will plateau at a lower level. Higher than yesterday’s closing, but not reaching previous highs, nor going beyond them.

wheeles - 09 February 2010 06:32 AM

... The big difference here is that a LOT of people are predicting just this sort of event. I’d say those that are in the minority are looking for a push higher.

Doesn’t feel that way.  Seem more people think it is merely a correction.  I’m a contrarian.  Everybody is a contrarian nowadays.  When they are bullish, they feel there are many bears around, so they are likely right by being contrarian.  Vice versa when they are bearish.

Mace - 09 February 2010 10:28 AM

I’m a contrarian.  Everybody is a contrarian nowadays.

How do you reconcile those two? Are you a mainstream maverick against all the contrarian sheep?

Reminds me of Tommy Lasorda’s “Nobody goes there anymore because it’s too crowded.”

deagol - 09 February 2010 11:01 AM

Reminds me of Tommy Lasorda’s “Nobody goes there anymore because it’s too crowded.”

That was Yogi Berra.