Counter Contrarian Courage or Culpability? Palm Pre as the Anti-iPhone?

  • Avatar

    Posted: 15 May 2009 10:53 AM

    Pardon the alliterations…grin, I just love them.

    Anyway, the TOPIC for the less astute is predicated on my nose to the ground sniffing tours of the past two weeks.

    Apple really just makes hardware, and software, and sells dreams and aspirations, hopefully in a package that allows for onorus overcharging for what essentially is just SUPERIOR IMPLEMENTATION of drab and me-too technologies, right?

    What makes Apple UNIQUE isn’t any of the above, but the PERCEPTIONS and FAN LOYALTY of superior marketing, programming, design, and media “distortion fields” that old Stevie J was able to supernaturally conjure up for his ranks of adoring fans. And this has made a LOT of people, a LOT of money.

    Making them a target for every sundry outfit out there that can order some Chinese sweatshops to churn out me-too wannabe’s. But to date, the “ELUSIVE IT” has been missing.

    PERHAPS { but not assuredly } THE new next, gotta have, must see, hippy hoppy, fun and sexy just MIGHT be on the cusp of a trip to the maternity ward, and most definitely the “contractions” are down to a few minutes apart now…and the BIRTH IS IMMINENT.

    And that, my friends is why last week, I took an entry postion in PALM, with it’s PRE, my call for the iPhone ALTERNATIVE for those who are addicted to the chicklet texting world.

    Now, WHY would a person loaded to the hilt with AAPL want to put some $$ on a me-too product? I’m glad you asked!

    First, they have the management team, former Apple folks, who know the “game” and what makes it all work. They have the BUZZ going, having monitored their online fan clubs, and discussion boards now for a month, I can honestly say that I haven’t seen this level of enthusiasm outside of the Apple Biosphere.

    And most of all, they, like a certain fruit firm in Cupertino, have a new, wiz bang, slick, and proprietary OPERATING SYSTEM that seems to be the ONLY really comparable, if not superior product out there.

    So, in summary, I got me 1,800 shrs, and a considerable number of medium term CALLS at 10,11 thinking that the Apple haters will ENSURE that this gets huge media play, it will be THE story, for a few weeks, and IF the fan base is as real, and they can pull off the STAND IN LINE OVERNIGHT hype thing….I see this as one of the surer bets for the next few months.

    Given that RIMM has actually outperformed AAPL in the past month or so, with NOTHING really get excited over, that proved to me, that the media, AND the markets want another horse to root for, in the Anti-Apple crowd.

    So, I got me a horse in both races.

    Your thinking??

    Signature

    “Even in the worst of times, someone turns a profit. . ” —#162 Ferengi: Rules of Acquisition

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 15 May 2009 12:17 PM #1

    Tan

    I would buy with a hand on the sell trigger.  I would guess there will be a nice run-up once a release date is announced, but I question the longer term.  Palm is seriously cash strapped and can no way out market Apple.  Everyone has heard of the Ipod/Iphone.  On mother’s day I was talking to one of my Nephews, 26 yr old Sprint customer, he said he was looking to get a new cell phone, and I asked him if he was getting a PRE, he said what’s a PRE.  He had a samsung win mobile touchscreen.  The tech world is all enamored with the pre, but the true test will be the market place.  Good luck on you Palm investment.  I owned Palm back when it was US Robotics/3Com owned because I loved the technology and it never worked out.

         
  • Posted: 15 May 2009 12:36 PM #2

    And most of all, they, like a certain fruit firm in Cupertino, have a new, wiz bang, slick, and proprietary OPERATING SYSTEM that seems to be the ONLY really comparable, if not superior product out there.

    It’s difficult for me to understand what the proprietary part of running web apps is.  Comparable?  It’s maybe comparable to a gen 1 iPhone in the early days of release but without the implementation of Apples multi-touch or the availability of the app store.  No reports yet on product quality or battery life.  Too many unknowns for me.

    Signature

    I don’t mind being wrong…,I just hate being wrong so FAST!

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 15 May 2009 12:42 PM #3

    pats - 15 May 2009 03:17 PM

    Tan

    I would buy with a hand on the sell trigger.  I would guess there will be a nice run-up once a release date is announced, but I question the longer term.

    In that, are in TOTAL agreement, my “plan” was to sell two weeks after the HYPE of opening day subsides and the inevitable disillusionment sets in. As it does with ALL products, including my beloved fruit products.

    I really don’t understand the affinity for little keyboards, but I can see that MANY MANY are committed to playing touch typists as they chew gum, and listen to music….

    ... but the media WILL MAKE this a “Apple the GOLIATH, against upstart PALM/PRE as ‘David’” even if that really is more wrong than right.

    Given that THIS YEAR, is the year of “Convergence” where everyone will want, if not act on, the desire to get a “Smartphone” and that too will be buzzable.

    What got me REALLY interested, is the FANBOYZ that are salivating for this one, you have that in Apple products, they are SOLD mentally BEFORE they even announce the products, and frankly, the PRE has that going for them on the many sites where such phone junkies hang and shuck&jive;.

    I’ve learned to NEVER underestimate the “cool” factor, and frankly, if the new iPod is just a refinement, and internally juiced….there is no “new COOL” and that will cause the media and the next-is-best crowd to seek out something to chatter about, and I see the PRE as the most likely candidate to be THAT product.

    —->>> SEE MY SIG TAG LINE FOR DEEPER INSIGHT <<<<———

    [ Edited: 15 May 2009 12:50 PM by TanToday ]

    Signature

    “Even in the worst of times, someone turns a profit. . ” —#162 Ferengi: Rules of Acquisition

         
  • Posted: 15 May 2009 12:50 PM #4

    Tan wrote:

    Apple really just makes hardware, and software, and sells dreams and aspirations, hopefully in a package that allows for onorus overcharging for what essentially is just SUPERIOR IMPLEMENTATION of drab and me-too technologies, right?

    What makes Apple UNIQUE isn?t any of the above, but the PERCEPTIONS and FAN LOYALTY of superior marketing, programming, design, and media ?distortion fields? that old Stevie J was able to supernaturally conjure up for his ranks of adoring fans. And this has made a LOT of people, a LOT of money.

    You don’t really own anything made by Apple do you?  Come on…,fess up…,you can tell us…,no really…,you can.

    Signature

    I don’t mind being wrong…,I just hate being wrong so FAST!

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 15 May 2009 12:56 PM #5

    BillH - 15 May 2009 03:50 PM

    Tan wrote:

    Apple really just makes hardware, and software, and sells dreams and aspirations, hopefully in a package that allows for onorus overcharging for what essentially is just SUPERIOR IMPLEMENTATION of drab and me-too technologies, right?

    What makes Apple UNIQUE isn?t any of the above, but the PERCEPTIONS and FAN LOYALTY of superior marketing, programming, design, and media ?distortion fields? that old Stevie J was able to supernaturally conjure up for his ranks of adoring fans. And this has made a LOT of people, a LOT of money.

    You don’t really own anything made by Apple do you?  Come on…,fess up…,you can tell us…,no really…,you can.

    2 G4’s
    1 MacBook Air
    2 Airport Extreem
    2 Time Capsules 1T/500G
    4 Airport Express’s
    1 iMac 24’
    3 Nano’s G4
    2 Nano’s G3
    1 Nano G2
    1 iPod Touch

    So, I believe I have grounds for talking don’t I?

    Signature

    “Even in the worst of times, someone turns a profit. . ” —#162 Ferengi: Rules of Acquisition

         
  • Posted: 15 May 2009 01:06 PM #6

    TanToday - 15 May 2009 03:56 PM
    BillH - 15 May 2009 03:50 PM

    Tan wrote:

    Apple really just makes hardware, and software, and sells dreams and aspirations, hopefully in a package that allows for onorus overcharging for what essentially is just SUPERIOR IMPLEMENTATION of drab and me-too technologies, right?

    What makes Apple UNIQUE isn?t any of the above, but the PERCEPTIONS and FAN LOYALTY of superior marketing, programming, design, and media ?distortion fields? that old Stevie J was able to supernaturally conjure up for his ranks of adoring fans. And this has made a LOT of people, a LOT of money.

    You don’t really own anything made by Apple do you?  Come on…,fess up…,you can tell us…,no really…,you can.

    2 G4’s
    1 MacBook Air
    2 Airport Extreem
    2 Time Capsules 1T/500G
    4 Airport Express’s
    1 iMac 24’
    3 Nano’s G4
    2 Nano’s G3
    1 Nano G2
    1 iPod Touch

    So, I believe I have grounds for talking don’t I?

    Have at it.  You had it with this.

    what essentially is just SUPERIOR IMPLEMENTATION of drab and me-too technologies

    You just don’t seem to appreciate the implications of your own sentence.  You may make some money…,true enough.  There are plenty of people (just like with the iPod) that think it’s going to be no big deal to trump the iPhone.  Many now own iPods…,others just live in a sea of denial.

    Signature

    I don’t mind being wrong…,I just hate being wrong so FAST!

         
  • Posted: 15 May 2009 01:50 PM #7

    I have a while ago sold PALM puts to balance my long AAPL positions.  I’ve lost a bit in that position but more than made up for it with AAPL (not to mention significant time decay).  I’m trying to hedge against a very uncertain market.  I believe the difficulty in taking on the iPhone OS and ecosystem is huge, and often underestimated.  Apple essentially transferred a mature operating system (OS X) to a computer small enough to double as a phone.  No one else can do that.

    I plan to increase my short PALM position as we get closer to the Pre launch. rolleyes

    Signature

    It’s better to miss the boat than to sail on a ship that sinks

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 15 May 2009 01:50 PM #8

    Not speaking for Tan,
    But I don’t think he saying that the PRE will trump the IPhone but Palm’s stock should make a nice run based on the hype and the potential must have status.  Problem is they are launching on Sprint which is losing subs at a rapid pace.  Once actual sales numbers are released for the PRE the hype will be replaced by the reality of the market.  The iphone will outsell the PRE based on availability on a single network vs the World.  The problem the Pre may encounter is the real possibility that Iphone version 3 has better performance, better battery life and the same price as the PRE with the App store capturing the teen demographic, the only game left is the Techno Geek who already bought Android and is disappointed or a Crackberry addict who hates the Storm

         
  • Posted: 15 May 2009 02:10 PM #9

    pats - 15 May 2009 04:50 PM

    Not speaking for Tan,
    But I don’t think he saying that the PRE will trump the IPhone but Palm’s stock should make a nice run based on the hype and the potential must have status.  Problem is they are launching on Sprint which is losing subs at a rapid pace.  Once actual sales numbers are released for the PRE the hype will be replaced by the reality of the market.  The iphone will outsell the PRE based on availability on a single network vs the World.  The problem the Pre may encounter is the real possibility that Iphone version 3 has better performance, better battery life and the same price as the PRE with the App store capturing the teen demographic, the only game left is the Techno Geek who already bought Android and is disappointed or a Crackberry addict who hates the Storm

    There is also a very real probability that products demo’d at the WWDC using the 3.0 SDK will leave the Pre the way the iPod touch left the Zune.  DOA.

    Signature

    I don’t mind being wrong…,I just hate being wrong so FAST!

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 15 May 2009 02:20 PM #10

    Billh

    I totally agree.  The PRE window is closing as the Iphone OS 3.0 software release approaches. The Sprint/Palm combo cannot outspend the Apple marketing juggernaut to gain mindshare, they must hope the press does their marketing for free.  I just don’t see the PRE capturing all the hearts and minds without a spectacular product.  The demo’s look nice, but Palm has picked an interesting release window. Got to have guts to go right up against the best selling product right out of the gate.  June should be an interesting month.

         
  • Posted: 15 May 2009 02:29 PM #11

    one solution