AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

  • Posted: 28 May 2009 10:49 PM #106

    Mace - 28 May 2009 09:25 PM
    Plato - 28 May 2009 08:29 PM
    Mercel - 28 May 2009 08:24 PM
    Plato - 28 May 2009 06:05 PM

    RIMM, come to Daddy, you bloated pig! Come on I want to see $80 - loading up the boat with puts!

    Haha.  I’m tempted myself.  RIMM is fat, happy, and ready for slaughter.

    Be careful - it closed above 80 near the HOD. DELL reported better EPS than expected (although on lower revenue) and is up in AH.

    We could have a follow through rally tomorrow. I am sure RIMM will pull back, but we could see 85 first. I hedged my short and bought some calls after I realized that RIMM will close above 80 with not much resistance.

    Sometimes I wonder what is your returns after shorting RIMM, hedged by buying calls, hedged calls by long puts, etc.  So complicated.  Brokerage firms would be happy though.

    Oh, my broker definitely loves me! LOL! Anyway, every stock that goes up, doesn’t go up in a straight line. That’s why I am hedging. If RIMM goes up, I am cashing in on my call profits and leave my short alone, b/c I know that RIMM will correct at one point. Patience is sometimes a cruel but rewarding attitude in the market!  :wink:

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  • Posted: 29 May 2009 12:11 AM #107

    Cramer pumped AAPL tonight.  He’s full of G.A.S. (Goldman Sachs, Apple and Schlumberger) generally, but I think he has this right.

    I’m ready to reload under $128, but I’m not sure we’ll see it ahead of WWDC.

         
  • Posted: 29 May 2009 12:18 AM #108

    kiwitrader - 28 May 2009 09:20 PM

    Per the RIMM chart I posted last night, the very bottom tail of the candle above the gap/resistance (9/18/08) that has now been breached is $87.53. You can see it for your self a few pages back in this thread or put up a 9-month daily chart. will be interesting to see if that’s the next target before this pig blows up. GL Plato and all who are shorting this one.

    I sold and then reloaded on FAZ and SDS today.

    I really think AAPL is just doing the traditional ramp-and-then-break-your-heart run it does before any event. GL to all who are holding long on AAPL through WWDC!

    I’ve chuckled these past few weeks as I feel like a character in the movie, The Village. The blind girl that is sent out into the woods to find medicine in the outside world. Now I’m bringing the medicine back…  :wink:

    I won’t keep posting about what I’m learnin’ out there in the woods though, if it’s not wanted! AFB is definately it’s own peaceful world.

    Protect those profits!
    -Kiwi

    Kiwi, your insight is appreciated. It adds a welcome balance.

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    “Mom, someone’s wrong on the internet again”

         
  • Posted: 29 May 2009 12:49 AM #109

    Mace - 28 May 2009 05:08 PM

    I’ve tiptoed into OXY, good idea?

    Mace, as you may recall I have owned OXY for a long time.  It is a very well run company.  They are 90% E&P and 10% downstream.  85% oil and 15% gas.  They have only a tiny amount of debt and thus an EV/EBITDA of about 7.3.  Reserve life is about 11 years and the dividend is 2.0% and safe.

    They are a low cost producer.  ‘09 volumes should be up about 9% over ‘08, but of course revenue will be down significantly due to lower prices.

    I like them.  Even after the recent run-up.

         
  • Posted: 29 May 2009 01:02 AM #110

    Friday

    R4               144.24
      midpoint   142.56
    R3       140.88
      midpoint   139.20
    R2       137.52
      midpoint   136.91
    R1       136.30
      midpoint   135.23
    PP       134.16
      midpoint   133.55
    S1       132.94
      midpoint   131.87
    S2       130.80
      midpoint   129.12
    S3       127.44
      midpoint   125.76
    S4       124.08

         
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    Posted: 29 May 2009 01:16 AM #111

    capablanca - 29 May 2009 03:49 AM
    Mace - 28 May 2009 05:08 PM

    I’ve tiptoed into OXY, good idea?

    Mace, as you may recall I have owned OXY for a long time.  It is a very well run company.  They are 90% E&P and 10% downstream.  85% oil and 15% gas.  They have only a tiny amount of debt and thus an EV/EBITDA of about 7.3.  Reserve life is about 11 years and the dividend is 2.0% and safe.

    They are a low cost producer.  ‘09 volumes should be up about 9% over ‘08, but of course revenue will be down significantly due to lower prices.

    I like them.  Even after the recent run-up.

    I’m aware.  Is one of the reason why I’m into OXY.  Energy stocks are a good defense vs depreciating dollar, inflation as well as a late bull play, what not to like?  The only thing is I’m not sure to long stocks or LEAPS.  Currently, long stocks.

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  • Posted: 29 May 2009 10:16 AM #112

    Economy’s decline not as steep in revision

    The nation’s gross domestic product fell at a revised annual pace of 5.7% in the first quarter of 2009 - less than initially reported.


    NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com)—The U.S. economy shrank at an annual pace of 5.7% in the first quarter, a less severe drop than initially reported, the government said Friday.

    Last month, the government initially reported that gross domestic product—the broadest measure of the nation’s economic activity—fell at an annual rate of 6.1%.

    The revision fell short of economists’ expectations of a 5.5% drop, according to a consensus estimate from Briefing.com.

    The first quarter of 2009 marked the third quarter in a row that the economy has contracted. It was the second worst drop in the measure in 27 years, behind only the fourth quarter of 2008, when GDP plunged at an annual pace of 6.3%.

    The government’s final revision of first-quarter GDP is due June 25.

         
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    Posted: 29 May 2009 11:19 AM #113

    alice - 29 May 2009 12:46 AM
    Eric Landstrom - 28 May 2009 04:09 PM

    What this means is that I see a textbook sector recovery and for this reason I’m overweight in the financials. As financials move upward, I’ll siphon monies off: A fixed portion will go straight to fixed, some toward toward operation expenses and the rest will rotate into more exposure in tech, consumer goods, industry and so on. And I’ll do this with each sector over and over again.

    I have a plan.

    Eric-What percentage of total investment would you recommend in financials in anticipation of textbook sector recovery?  Which financials?  I see you are in BAC.  What about c, wfc?  Thanks.

    Alice, I own other banks as well and Fannie and Freddie and the NYSE (exchanges tend to pop in late bull markets). The intelligent investor buys when people are freaking out which is what I did at the time. I don’t have a percentage because it is based on how much risk you’re willing to assume as well as how much money you’ve got under management.

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 29 May 2009 11:21 AM #114

    kiwitrader - 28 May 2009 10:04 PM
    willrob - 28 May 2009 09:47 PM

    Village of the Damned may prove more educational for swing traders. All those blond kids have grown up to manage hedge funds.

    tongue laugh My little hedge fund manager:

    No kidding I wish somebody had taken me under their wing when I was a teenager and taught me how to run and manage money while also showing me how much fun it is to do so.

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 29 May 2009 11:23 AM #115

    Mace - 29 May 2009 04:16 AM
    capablanca - 29 May 2009 03:49 AM
    Mace - 28 May 2009 05:08 PM

    I’ve tiptoed into OXY, good idea?

    Mace, as you may recall I have owned OXY for a long time.  It is a very well run company.  They are 90% E&P and 10% downstream.  85% oil and 15% gas.  They have only a tiny amount of debt and thus an EV/EBITDA of about 7.3.  Reserve life is about 11 years and the dividend is 2.0% and safe.

    They are a low cost producer.  ‘09 volumes should be up about 9% over ‘08, but of course revenue will be down significantly due to lower prices.

    I like them.  Even after the recent run-up.

    I’m aware.  Is one of the reason why I’m into OXY.  Energy stocks are a good defense vs depreciating dollar, inflation as well as a late bull play, what not to like?  The only thing is I’m not sure to long stocks or LEAPS.  Currently, long stocks.

    Speaking of inflation: over the last two days thirty year mortgage rate has run up from 5% to 5.25%.

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 29 May 2009 12:50 PM #116

    Eric Landstrom - 29 May 2009 02:23 PM

    Speaking of inflation: over the last two days thirty year mortgage rate has run up from 5% to 5.25%.

    try 5.5%

    I think we are in for a world of hurt in the next two to three years.

    I feel like I am leaving in 2007.  All signs pointed to a huge problem with the housing market and the stock market shot up that year like a rocket.  I and the rest of the apple faithful were sucked into it as aapl went to 200.

    Apple has recovered nicely, but I still think that the next shoe will drop as we see commercial loans start to default, the impact of increased unemployment, and the second wave of foreclosures starting to show its face 12 months from now.

    I hate to be a bear, but I think I am much wiser then 2 years ago.

         
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    Posted: 29 May 2009 01:12 PM #117

    Alt-A resets.

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    The ends don’t justify the means…

         
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    Posted: 29 May 2009 01:20 PM #118

    Mayor Quimby - 29 May 2009 04:12 PM

    Alt-A resets.

    Last Friday Tim and I where talking about Alt-A some of which spilled onto TMO.

    http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/forums/viewthread/75629/P135/#487443

    And there is an Op Ed in the NYT on hyperinflation fears.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/29/opinion/29krugman.html

    [ Edited: 29 May 2009 01:24 PM by Eric Landstrom ]

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 29 May 2009 01:28 PM #119

    My friend in NJ tells me he will see an extra $150 - $200 on his monthly bills because of this week’s rate spike.  His reset is in June.  Just missed it!

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    The ends don’t justify the means…

         
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    Posted: 29 May 2009 02:12 PM #120

    From Dr. Housing Bubble:

    I?m not sure where people are pulling their data but from the multiple sources I?m looking at, we have roughly $450 to $500 billion in Alt-A mortgages floating in our market.  And let us for argument sake, set aside those toxic mortgages.  We have a new problem hitting the market.  Prime mortgages are now imploding on a massive scale.  After all, with no job and no income it is hard to make the house payment no matter how conventional and Leave It to Beaver your mortgage looks like.

    The Mortgage Bankers Association came out today stating that 12.07 percent of all mortgages were delinquent or in foreclosure.  This is the highest on record going back to 1972.  What is even more troubling is prime fixed-rate mortgages to the most creditworthy borrowers made up a substantial jump of the new foreclosures coming in at 29 percent.  One out of every eight Americans is now either late on a mortgage payment or in the foreclosure process.  That statistic is nuts.  Here is an observation from previous economic downturns.  This economic recession was largely driven by a global housing bubble fueled by easy access to the Wall Street casino.  Toxic mortgages which became a larger part of the overall market have pummeled housing prices into the ground.  This is where we are at (you are here in your mall map).  Yet in this stage of the recession, we are now seeing the double whammy of housing prices falling for more historical reasons like job losses and this is spilling over into the prime mortgage market.

    So as I asked Eric earlier, what to expect next week? Are we seeing some end-of-month window dressing?