AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

  • Posted: 26 May 2009 06:15 PM #16

    Eric Landstrom - 26 May 2009 09:07 PM

    What happened to page 2?

    And I thought it was just me! Same happened to the Options Thread - last page is gone. Some thread administrator must have hit a wrong button.

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    “We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office.” - Aesop

         
  • Posted: 26 May 2009 06:38 PM #17

    nope - looks like database has been wound back.

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    Posted: 26 May 2009 07:05 PM #18

    Many thanks to Captain Boom for this tip:

    If you don?t have Photoshop, and are using a Mac, you can use Preview to resize and save screen shots in different formats. The default screen shot (command+shift+4, then click, drag, and release) will be a .png file, but you can change the default to a .jpg by using Onyx. The screen shot will show up on your desktop, labeled as Picture 1, Picture 2, etc.

    I covered the remainder of my RIMM short on the way out the door Friday morning at 71.80. Good thing as today the games were being played via the MS upgrade on aapl. Great for aapl, but RIMM has no business hopping up this fast in one day. If it fails to break through the gap-resitance at $78 tomorrow, I think it’s an easy short down to $72 or lower (within a day or two) if the whole market rolls over as well. RIMM can be a Karen Finnerman pairs trade special, long AAPL while you short RIMM. Mace also posted a quote about this last week, so take it from him if not from me! smile

    2 new charts:

    RIMM daily to show gap
    RIMM hourly to show trading range Enjoy!

         
  • Posted: 26 May 2009 07:36 PM #19

    kiwitrader - 26 May 2009 10:05 PM

    Many thanks to Captain Boom for this tip:

    If you don?t have Photoshop, and are using a Mac, you can use Preview to resize and save screen shots in different formats. The default screen shot (command+shift+4, then click, drag, and release) will be a .png file, but you can change the default to a .jpg by using Onyx. The screen shot will show up on your desktop, labeled as Picture 1, Picture 2, etc.

    I covered the remainder of my RIMM short on the way out the door Friday morning at 71.80. Good thing as today the games were being played via the MS upgrade on aapl. Great for aapl, but RIMM has no business hopping up this fast in one day. If it fails to break through the gap-resitance at $78 tomorrow, I think it’s an easy short down to $72 or lower (within a day or two) if the whole market rolls over as well. RIMM can be a Karen Finnerman pairs trade special, long AAPL while you short RIMM. Mace also posted a quote about this last week, so take it from him if not from me! smile

    2 new charts:

    RIMM daily to show gap
    RIMM hourly to show trading range Enjoy!

    Be careful with RIMM - it’s like AMZN - over prized, over valued but continues going up w/o reason. Of course today’s rise in RIMM was not just being in the tail wind of AAPL, RIMM got his own upgrade and that caused this spike today.

    I would also watch the DOW break 8525 and stay and close above it on good volume. That could mean we have a break out (look at the daily Dow chart and you see what I mean) and go much higher from here.

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    “We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office.” - Aesop

         
  • Posted: 26 May 2009 09:21 PM #20

    Eric Landstrom - 26 May 2009 04:04 PM
    alice - 26 May 2009 03:54 PM
    Eric Landstrom - 26 May 2009 03:41 PM

    “I am the Nightrider! I am a fuel-injected suicide machine! I am a rocker! I am a roller! I am an out-of-controller! I am the Chosen One! The mighty hand of Vengeance! Sent down to strike the unroadworthy! I’m hotter than a rolling dice! Step right up, chum, and watch the kid lay down a rubber road right to freedom!” -American consumer.

    While the American consumer continues on the path to destruction, Greenspan quoted his Bloomberg terminal noting that banks have an estimated $600,000,000,000.00 of additional write downs to come from additional defaults. Look at the following diagram and take note that 2009 is the eye of the storm.

    Look carefully and hedge appropriately.  grin

    Would you mind explaining in simple English as I don’t understand.  Thanks.

    Markets collapsed because people and companies where unable to leverage property (they couldn’t refinance). With a lack of lending, economies experienced a collapse of money supply. Although I believe that the second wave of the collapse will be somewhat dampened, I believe that we will experience a second wave of money supply collapse and I expect to profit from that collapse.

    For a guy like myself any collapse means value and like heard animals, all the cool kids are following the recession according to plan. The plan is straight-forward and simple: everybody is playing sector rotation.

    Aren’t people taking advantage of the lower interest rate and refinancing?  Wouldn’t that prevent the second wave from collapsing?

         
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    Posted: 26 May 2009 09:43 PM #21

    Plato - 26 May 2009 09:15 PM
    Eric Landstrom - 26 May 2009 09:07 PM

    What happened to page 2?

    And I thought it was just me! Same happened to the Options Thread - last page is gone. Some thread administrator must have hit a wrong button.

    The missing page 2 is where I suggested that GM will file C11 as early as Wednesday (before Reuters ran the story) based on the idea that GM’s offer to the bondholders expires at midnight tonight.

    I also explained that arbitragers where going long on BAC preferred while shorting the common on the belief that BAC will dilute the common by converting the preferred to raise cash. I purchased BAC today because I think the common can double within the next 18 months. Moreover, BAC should drag the entire market upward when the arbitragers flip long on the common.

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
  • Posted: 26 May 2009 10:30 PM #22

    OMG, for anyone who missed this… macke talking with dennis kneale. Apologies if this has already been posted.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-macke-goes-nuts-on-dennis-kneale-clip-2009-5

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    “Mom, someone’s wrong on the internet again”

         
  • Posted: 26 May 2009 10:59 PM #23

    litespeed - 27 May 2009 01:30 AM

    OMG, for anyone who missed this… macke talking with dennis kneale. Apologies if this has already been posted.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-macke-goes-nuts-on-dennis-kneale-clip-2009-5

    It was pretty bonkers TBH. I didn’t really believe what I was seeing.

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  • Posted: 26 May 2009 11:02 PM #24

    artman1033 - 27 May 2009 01:04 AM

    I offer a little “color” on Kathryn Huberty on her AAPL predictions:

    ON December 10th, 2008

    JIM GOLDMAN AT CNBC SAID

    So here we go again. Just when reality finally began to emerge from its shell on Wall Street, and Apple Inc. creeped above $100 a share, the company gets punk’d by Morgan Stanley.

    While so many other firm’s have been lowering price targets on Apple for weeks, Morgan Stanley analyst Katie Huberty holds the distinction of being the first to take an Apple target below $100. Her $95 target is the first double-digit one on the Street, and it comes at a time when Apple investors finally began to settle into a nice, stable, though small momentum to the upside.

    In other words: Katie predicted the 2009 high on AAPL would be $95 on December 10th, 2008.

     

    AAPL STOCKCHART

    Bit confused by what you are saying here Art - are you saying that Huberty was right or are you saying that Huberty caused the fall?

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    Posted: 26 May 2009 11:45 PM #25

    alice - 27 May 2009 12:21 AM
    Eric Landstrom - 26 May 2009 04:04 PM
    alice - 26 May 2009 03:54 PM
    Eric Landstrom - 26 May 2009 03:41 PM

    “I am the Nightrider! I am a fuel-injected suicide machine! I am a rocker! I am a roller! I am an out-of-controller! I am the Chosen One! The mighty hand of Vengeance! Sent down to strike the unroadworthy! I’m hotter than a rolling dice! Step right up, chum, and watch the kid lay down a rubber road right to freedom!” -American consumer.

    While the American consumer continues on the path to destruction, Greenspan quoted his Bloomberg terminal noting that banks have an estimated $600,000,000,000.00 of additional write downs to come from additional defaults. Look at the following diagram and take note that 2009 is the eye of the storm.

    Look carefully and hedge appropriately.  grin

    Would you mind explaining in simple English as I don’t understand.  Thanks.

    Markets collapsed because people and companies where unable to leverage property (they couldn’t refinance). With a lack of lending, economies experienced a collapse of money supply. Although I believe that the second wave of the collapse will be somewhat dampened, I believe that we will experience a second wave of money supply collapse and I expect to profit from that collapse.

    For a guy like myself any collapse means value and like heard animals, all the cool kids are following the recession according to plan. The plan is straight-forward and simple: everybody is playing sector rotation.

    Aren’t people taking advantage of the lower interest rate and refinancing?  Wouldn’t that prevent the second wave from collapsing?

    You’ve got an 80/20 loan on our example, a million dollar house. You took the loan out at peak prices in 2006 with $200,000 down at 6.5%. Each point you can knock off saves you $100 a month per $100,000 carried. So if you can refi the $800,000, you’ll save $800 on your monthly payment. In other words, you are a motivate homeowner looking to refi your jumbo.

    You want to take out another jumbo at 5.5% (or 5.25% or whatever they are today) but you need 20% equity in your house to qualify for a refi at 1st-Northern-Really-Big-Bank-That-Swallowed-Whole-Your-Old-Bank-Last-Winter except your million dollar house isn’t worth one million any more. Maybe it is to you but to the Bank of Humungous, property values have dropped 20% in your neighborhood and so you need to cough up $160,000 in equity in order to qualify for an 80/20 jumbo loan.

    Clearly people who have 20% or more equity in their house are refinancing as fast as they are able to do so but for those people who purchased at the peak, they are stuck where they bought the house for awhile.

    However, I think that there is a damping effect in that:

    1) after the second peak all of the problem mortgages are resolved, banks get back to make serious money and forward-looking markets know this and will price in a recovery a year before the real recovery on valuation and improving fundamentals (hence my interest in owning the Spanks on the backside of all of this).

    2) since the investor class is about to face monster taxes there is a good case to throw money into real estate speculation. I think this will help soften a hard landing.

    Signature

    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 27 May 2009 12:04 AM #26

    litespeed - 27 May 2009 01:30 AM

    OMG, for anyone who missed this… macke talking with dennis kneale. Apologies if this has already been posted.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-macke-goes-nuts-on-dennis-kneale-clip-2009-5

    Excuse me but I speak jive. Macke means that

    1) You idiots on CNBC are behind the game and are doing nothing but pumping an empty economy.

    2) You’re selling the markets like charlatans sell used cars: slap the saw dust in the transmissions and call it good when in point of fact, it is not.

    3) I’m not buying that lousy use car from you any more!

    I speculate that Macke’s remarks mean that he’s lost a ton of money because his short-side trades fell apart and he doesn’t understand why. He is like a wounded animal clueless as to why the world is rallying.

    The jive version is

    Woman : Oh stewardess, I speak jive.
    Attendant: Ohhhh, good.
    Woman : He said that he’s in great pain and he wants to know if you can help him.

    Signature

    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
  • Posted: 27 May 2009 02:19 AM #27

    Wednesday

    R4         147.56
      midpoint   144.42
    R3       141.28
      midpoint   138.14
    R2       135.00
      midpoint   133.95
    R1       132.89
      midpoint   130.81
    PP       128.72
      midpoint   127.67
    S1       126.61
      midpoint   124.53
    S2       122.44
      midpoint   119.30
    S3       116.16
      midpoint   113.02
    S4       109.88

         
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    Posted: 27 May 2009 06:30 AM #28

    Eric Landstrom - 27 May 2009 12:43 AM

    I also explained that arbitragers where going long on BAC preferred while shorting the common on the belief that BAC will dilute the common by converting the preferred to raise cash. I purchased BAC today because I think the common can double within the next 18 months. Moreover, BAC should drag the entire market upward when the arbitragers flip long on the common.


    Decided to keep my BACs for now. How long would you estimate before we see turningpoint? (thanks Eric)

         
  • Posted: 27 May 2009 07:12 AM #29

    willrob - 27 May 2009 05:19 AM

    Wednesday

    R4         147.56
      midpoint   144.42
    R3       141.28
      midpoint   138.14
    R2       135.00
      midpoint   133.95
    R1       132.89
      midpoint   130.81
    PP       128.72
      midpoint   127.67
    S1       126.61
      midpoint   124.53
    S2       122.44
      midpoint   119.30
    S3       116.16
      midpoint   113.02
    S4       109.88


    Got that PP right this AM?.

         
  • Posted: 27 May 2009 08:38 AM #30

    Eric Landstrom - 27 May 2009 03:04 AM
    litespeed - 27 May 2009 01:30 AM

    OMG, for anyone who missed this… macke talking with dennis kneale. Apologies if this has already been posted.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-macke-goes-nuts-on-dennis-kneale-clip-2009-5

    The jive version is

    Woman : Oh stewardess, I speak jive.
    Attendant: Ohhhh, good.
    Woman : He said that he’s in great pain and he wants to know if you can help him.

    Good one Eric.  I think CNBC should have slapped subtitles on Jeff Macke “to make it very clear” to us.  Macke’s child-speak made “ga-ga” sound articulate.