AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

  • Posted: 27 May 2009 12:59 PM #46

    danthemason - 27 May 2009 10:12 AM
    willrob - 27 May 2009 05:19 AM

    Wednesday

    R4         147.56
      midpoint   144.42
    R3       141.28
      midpoint   138.14
    R2       135.00
      midpoint   133.95
    R1       132.89
      midpoint   130.81
    PP       128.72
      midpoint   127.67
    S1       126.61
      midpoint   124.53
    S2       122.44
      midpoint   119.30
    S3       116.16
      midpoint   113.02
    S4       109.88


    Got that PP right this AM?.

    Yes. Note that yesterday AAPL went off the pivot chart, closing above R4.

         
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    Posted: 27 May 2009 01:35 PM #47

    What’s wrong with the economy? Nothing if you listen to Goldilocks and the three Feds. But if you have a sense that something is amiss, you’ll probably appreciate this video… More information in 2 minutes from Seth Green than you’ll get in 2 days from CNBC.

    By the way, if you think the consumer is heading back to ‘normal’ then you might want to pay attention to the mortgage mess looming in 2010-2011. Basically the Alt-A recasts scheduled to begin in 1Q10 and continue almost through the end of 2011 will put a damper on any housing rebound. This problem also is likely keep REAL consumer sentiment depressed for some time.

    My take (subject to revision rolleyes ) is to enjoy the rally now because things probably will look a little different come January.

         
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    Posted: 27 May 2009 02:13 PM #48

    chartguy - 27 May 2009 04:35 PM

    What’s wrong with the economy? Nothing if you listen to Goldilocks and the three Feds. But if you have a sense that something is amiss, you’ll probably appreciate this video… More information in 2 minutes from Seth Green than you’ll get in 2 days from CNBC.

    By the way, if you think the consumer is heading back to ‘normal’ then you might want to pay attention to the mortgage mess looming in 2010-2011. Basically the Alt-A recasts scheduled to begin in 1Q10 and continue almost through the end of 2011 will put a damper on any housing rebound. This problem also is likely keep REAL consumer sentiment depressed for some time.

    My take (subject to revision rolleyes ) is to enjoy the rally now because things probably will look a little different come January.

    Passed January, now is May.  Are you saying that nothing is done so far to avert your prognosis?  Is known long long ago.  A lot is going on e.g. refinancing.

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    Posted: 27 May 2009 02:33 PM #49

    Mace - 27 May 2009 05:13 PM
    chartguy - 27 May 2009 04:35 PM

    What’s wrong with the economy? Nothing if you listen to Goldilocks and the three Feds. But if you have a sense that something is amiss, you’ll probably appreciate this video… More information in 2 minutes from Seth Green than you’ll get in 2 days from CNBC.

    By the way, if you think the consumer is heading back to ‘normal’ then you might want to pay attention to the mortgage mess looming in 2010-2011. Basically the Alt-A recasts scheduled to begin in 1Q10 and continue almost through the end of 2011 will put a damper on any housing rebound. This problem also is likely keep REAL consumer sentiment depressed for some time.

    My take (subject to revision rolleyes ) is to enjoy the rally now because things probably will look a little different come January.

    Passed January, now is May.  Are you saying that nothing is done so far to avert your prognosis?  Is known long long ago.  A lot is going on e.g. refinancing.

    I continue to preach the gospel of puppies and bunnies in the financials to the point where I believe a concentrated risk in the financial sector is worth the exposure given the potential rewards. That said, I thought the financials would flat line for six months and so I’m giddy that they continue to wiggle around.

    Meanwhile the spanks index (BKX) continues to run above the 50,100 and 200 simple moving average.


    And the S&P honors support.

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
  • Posted: 27 May 2009 03:09 PM #50

    Your banks just got kicked in the cajones. Interested to know if you use any hedges.

    Looks like, we may follow last weeks pattern and head down for a few days. Friday afternoon might provide a good buying opportunity.

    Edit- S&P about to break under 900 again.

    [ Edited: 27 May 2009 03:22 PM by litespeed ]

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    Posted: 27 May 2009 03:16 PM #51

    Mace - 27 May 2009 05:13 PM

    Passed January, now is May.  Are you saying that nothing is done so far to avert your prognosis?  Is known long long ago.  A lot is going on e.g. refinancing.

    Sorry, Mace. I just spent 30 minutes on a response that was lost when I tried to post. My now much condensed response, sans links and witty commentary, is that my prognosis HAS changed. This spring has seen a very tradable rally and stuff that shocked me last winter is now widely known.

    The near-term still has me very wary. Alt-A and ‘option pay’ mortgages are a known problem and toxic loans are exploding on schedule. Unemployment is expected to remain high through 2010. Commercial and credit card debt is still a cause for concern. All of this is priced in.

    The long term (beyond 2012) looks pretty good for housing and OK for the rest of the economy. Deficits will be a problem for the next decade, however, at $1Tn per year. GDP likely will grow annually at 2% or less. Taxes will have to increase. Consumers will have less disposable income.

    I like financials, commodities and capital goods. This spring has seen leveraged companies out-perform others, but I think strong balance sheets will rule in the future. There will be a further culling of the weak and inefficient. And at some point companies will have to show rising earnings, not just earnings that beat expectations.

    Peace.

         
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    Posted: 27 May 2009 03:38 PM #52

    litespeed - 27 May 2009 06:09 PM

    Your banks just got kicked in the cajones. Interested to know if you use any hedges.

    Looks like, we may follow last weeks pattern and head down for a few days. Friday afternoon might provide a good buying opportunity.

    Edit- S&P about to break under 900 again.

    C is off by a shiny penny and Spank of Americana is up 1.82%.

    Anyway, yes, I have put protection on the core. The trading stock weathers the wind but the ship is looking for more adventurous crew having dumped a pile of them out on the Isle of $11.42.

    [ Edited: 27 May 2009 03:41 PM by Eric Landstrom ]

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
  • Posted: 27 May 2009 03:52 PM #53

    Will AAPL replace GM in the Dow Jones Industrial?

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    “We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office.” - Aesop

         
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    Posted: 27 May 2009 03:55 PM #54

    Plato - 27 May 2009 06:52 PM

    Will AAPL replace GM in the Dow Jones Industrial?

    I don’t think they will unless GM stays C11 for too long. Then they will replace GM with another sheet metal company.

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
  • Posted: 27 May 2009 04:12 PM #55

    BAC looking interesting for a scalp near 11.00 with a tight stop.

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    “Mom, someone’s wrong on the internet again”

         
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    Posted: 27 May 2009 04:34 PM #56

    Is this the beginning of the long-awaited broad-market correction (collapse) we (read I) have been waiting for?  Or another bear trap?  It has triggered sell signals. Is it really here finally? Amazingly AAPL is still solidly up!

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    “Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.”    - Jesse Livermore

         
  • Posted: 27 May 2009 04:37 PM #57

    cramar - 27 May 2009 07:34 PM

    Is this the beginning of the long-awaited broad-market correction (collapse) we (read I) have been waiting for?  Or another bear trap?  It has triggered sell signals. Is it really here finally? Amazingly AAPL is still solidly up!

    I believe it’s known as a trading range. Roughly 875-935. Once we break below 875, I will believe the end is near. grin

    Edit- cramar, for some reason your post reminded me of Linus sitting in the pumpkin patch waiting for the great pumpkin. The memory put a smile on my face. Thanks.

    Chris

    [ Edited: 27 May 2009 04:54 PM by litespeed ]

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    “Mom, someone’s wrong on the internet again”

         
  • Posted: 27 May 2009 04:53 PM #58

    If the market continues to correct tomorrow, AAPL will follow the market b/c the 2 upgrades from yesterday and today will loose their steam IMO.

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    “We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office.” - Aesop

         
  • Posted: 27 May 2009 04:55 PM #59

    Plato - 27 May 2009 07:53 PM

    If the market continues to correct tomorrow, AAPL will follow the market b/c the 2 upgrades from yesterday and today will loose their steam IMO.

    I hope so. I sold too early.

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    “Mom, someone’s wrong on the internet again”

         
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    Posted: 27 May 2009 04:58 PM #60

    litespeed - 27 May 2009 07:37 PM

    I believe it’s known as a trading range. Roughly 875-935. Once we break below 875, I will believe the end is near. grin

    Not today!  But nice 5-waver down today. The form of tomorrow’s rally will tell whether this 5er is the end of the correction and we head up again, or the beginning of a impending collapse. My vote is on the latter. The technicals look ominious.

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    “Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.”    - Jesse Livermore