AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

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    Posted: 31 May 2009 01:41 PM

    DT, hope you don’t mind me getting this started for next week. I wanted to share some charts and thoughts with everyone as I’ve been running across alot of AAPL talk out in the Blogasphere-woods this weekend. To me, this is either a sign of further rallying for AAPL or a sign of a top. The reason being is that I haven’t really encountered very much AAPL talk in the places I’ve been visiting these past few weeks so that’s why it is getting my attention.

    With the EOD breakout on the market Friday, it seems like we are either poised right now to push through resistance and ramp through the 200 DMA on SPX (now at 928) or hit it and retrace back for a bit. It’s the first trading day of June, The GM BK is on the table for tomorrow and the bond market is going nuts with supply that needs to be purchased. VERY VERY SIMPLE nut shell on bonds, if it’s the FED stepping in to purchase more that will further weaken the dollar, push equities and oil higher. If the market is ready for a breather from equities and ready to retrace on the indice, they will go in after this bond supply. I attached a link at the end of this post to a great bond-market article.

    AAPL is headed into the final trading days before WWDC. We have all seen AAPL get ramped into this (or any) event only to be shorted out afterwards. This time could be different if the market wants to power higher.

    Here is an aapl chart and corresponding post that I found out in the woods:

    I have the same confluence of lines for AAPL around 140, but I also have another one anchored in 2006 (peak) and May 2007 (resistance then support) that was just touched on Friday. Orange line on attached chart:

    Might reverse off that line before returning upwards to the cluster at ~140 later ?

    Here is a quick daily AAPL chart I threw together broken into price levels since the March lows and the corresponding SPX levels. You can see the relationship between AAPL and the S&P pretty clearly.

    Here’s that excellent read on the bond market situation. Warning, it is coming from an “End of the World” gold bug. Just need to cast those comments aside, tone down the retoric and read it for the insite into a bond traders mind ATM. Very interesting! Geithner’s in China right now pep-talking them about how we are going to support the strength of the dollar, FYI.

    Hope this is helpful and GL to all trading next week!

    Kiwi.

    [ Edited: 06 June 2009 12:10 AM by DawnTreader ]      
  • Posted: 31 May 2009 02:24 PM #1

    Monday

    R4         141.34
      midpoint   140.31
    R3       139.29
      midpoint   138.26
    R2       137.24
      midpoint   136.88
    R1       136.52
      midpoint   135.86
    PP       135.19
      midpoint   134.83
    S1       134.47
      midpoint   133.81
    S2       133.14
      midpoint   132.11
    S3       131.09
      midpoint   130.06
    S4       129.04

         
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    Posted: 31 May 2009 05:36 PM #2

    kiwitrader - 31 May 2009 04:41 PM

    Here?s that excellent read on the bond market situation. Warning, it is coming from an ?End of the World? gold bug. Just need to cast those comments aside, tone down the retoric and read it for the insite into a bond traders mind ATM. Very interesting! Geithner?s in China right now pep-talking them about how we are going to support the strength of the dollar, FYI.

    The Chinese are not stupid.

    One does NOT send over the heavyweights to “talk up” something that isn’t in danger of immenently SINKING, now do they?

    When the cheerleaders are rooting FOR .... smart money runs the other direction.

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    “Even in the worst of times, someone turns a profit. . ” —#162 Ferengi: Rules of Acquisition

         
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    Posted: 31 May 2009 06:52 PM #3

    TanToday - 31 May 2009 08:36 PM

    The Chinese are not stupid.

    One does NOT send over the heavyweights to “talk up” something that isn’t in danger of immenently SINKING, now do they?

    When the cheerleaders are rooting FOR .... smart money runs the other direction.

    Most definately Tan. That’s why I think the article is so interesting and then figuring in Geithner’s trip to China right now? Hmmmm… you’ve got to think he’s saying, “Please keep buying our treasuries, otherwise we will have to start up the color copier and buy them ourselves. Then the bags you’re holding already will become worth less (not worthless, wort less :wink: )” I’ll just say that I think the EOD antics on Friday along with the pitiful volume of the last 2 weeks or so makes any breakout look like a huge bull trap to me.

    I’m trying to remain somewhat neutral in tone when I come here to AFB. There’s plenty of places out in the woods to scream about what’s going on. I have bullishness for the future, but not until the festering wounds in our economy have been properly dressed. This run up needs to correct sooner than later. The longer the correction is put off, the less likely it is that we will hold the March lows. JMHO. smile

         
  • Posted: 31 May 2009 11:53 PM #4

    As a matter of perspective, Howard Ruff screamed Gold and Head for the Hills back in the 70s.  Everyone with history in mind will have to admit it’s easier to sound alarms on the next financial apocalypse than opine on the half-full version. 

    GM bankruptcy is baked in to the market, no matter who is appointed car czar of the company. 

    Thanks Kiwi for the article and cautionary words.

         
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    Posted: 01 June 2009 12:19 AM #5

    Most in the woods think there would be a lower (than Mar) low for indices.  They are waiting for wave four rolleyes to be completed so they can short wave five.  Some have forgotten that wave five can be truncated :devil:  i.e. can be higher (than Mar) low.

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    Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.  - Steve Jobs

         
  • Posted: 01 June 2009 07:38 AM #6

    It’s early, but AAPL in the PM is $137.50 as I type this.  Could we see $140 today?  Is there something to multiple reports over the weekend that Jobs is feeling (and eating) his oats again?  Or does GM’s filing C11 halts more uncertainty that WS abhors?

         
  • Posted: 01 June 2009 10:29 AM #7

    CSCO replaces GM in the Dow Jones Ind. - that costs AAPL already $1 in PM. I guess traders were speculating that AAPL will be the next Dow component.

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    “We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office.” - Aesop

         
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    Posted: 01 June 2009 10:50 AM #8

    Plato - 01 June 2009 01:29 PM

    CSCO replaces GM in the Dow Jones Ind. - that costs AAPL already $1 in PM. I guess traders were speculating that AAPL will be the next Dow component.

    The plain truth is Dow always let in dogs (not stars), businesses that have peaked and going down.  The last 10 replacements clearly indicate this.  So we should be happy.

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    Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.  - Steve Jobs

         
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    Posted: 01 June 2009 10:56 AM #9

    artman1033 - 31 May 2009 10:40 PM

    EX KMART CFO TO BE NAMED TOP WHEELMAN AT GM?????


    IMHO: THE market WILL look at it with TOTAL disbelief and CRASH!

    Perhaps familiarity with blue light specials is a high priority?

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
  • Posted: 01 June 2009 11:25 AM #10

    Go AAPL!  My favorite, dearest fruit company on the planet…do I hear $140 today????

         
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    Posted: 01 June 2009 11:32 AM #11

    kiwitrader - 31 May 2009 09:52 PM

    I have bullishness for the future, but not until the festering wounds in our economy have been properly dressed. This run up needs to correct sooner than later. The longer the correction is put off, the less likely it is that we will hold the March lows. JMHO. smile

    March is a good low.

    Signature

    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 01 June 2009 12:18 PM #12

    With C being removed from the Dow, is there any hope for it? I’m assuming that’s what is keeping it from participating upside today. I’m sure funds have to sell it if it is no longer a Dow component.

         
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    Posted: 01 June 2009 12:50 PM #13

    CaptainBoom - 01 June 2009 03:18 PM

    With C being removed from the Dow, is there any hope for it? I’m assuming that’s what is keeping it from participating upside today. I’m sure funds have to sell it if it is no longer a Dow component.

    C has a depositor base even larger than Spank of America. C just completed a joint venture with MS to create the largest brokerage, even larger than the thundering herd of Merril Lynch.

    I continue to happily own a C position that I expect will double in value by the middle of 2011.

    Signature

    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 01 June 2009 01:03 PM #14

    ...and I’m happily scaling into FAZ which I expect to quadruple in the near term.

    Time for our light saber duel!!!!

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    The ends don’t justify the means…

         
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    Posted: 01 June 2009 01:33 PM #15

    Mayor Quimby - 01 June 2009 04:03 PM

    ...and I’m happily scaling into FAZ which I expect to quadruple in the near term.

    Time for our light saber duel!!!!

    That 3x bear ETF is going to bite the hand that feeds it, IMO. I think that you’re underestimating the power of Bill’s drool and willingness to put money to work.

    BTW, Mike, RAD has gone from $0.22 to $1.33. Who’d have thunk?

    Signature

    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.