Let’s get started…

When the CBS Evening News has a spot about Apple and WWDC, I get a bit worried about expectations.  I really hope Apple pulls something out of their hat tomorrow.

Ditto that, but I don’t care where they pull it from.

WWDC Monday

R4         154.33
  midpoint   152.74
R3       151.14
  midpoint   149.55
R2       147.95
  midpoint   147.13
R1       146.31
  midpoint   145.54
PP       144.76
  midpoint   143.94
S1       143.12
  midpoint   142.35
S2       141.57
  midpoint   139.98
S3       138.38
  midpoint   136.79
S4       135.19

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124442326661992487.html

Sold half of my 140 July Puts @ $7.10 this morning. Waiting for WWDC - I think if SJ does not appear the stock will go down more, since everyone expects a big surprise.

Plato - 08 June 2009 08:44 AM

Sold half of my 140 July Puts @ $7.10 this morning. Waiting for WWDC - I think if SJ does not appear the stock will go down more, since everyone expects a big surprise.

Well Apple stated categorically in an official release that Jobs will NOT be taking part in the Keynote, so anyone expecting any different is living on hot air and hope…

From what I’ve been reading over the weekend, everyone expects new iPhone announcements — video models, $99 model, etc. I haven;t seen anyone say they expect Steve to show up. Tablet rumors have been sparse, mostly saying later announcement once he returns. If the new phones are even mentioned (which would be very unlikely), then expect the stock to drop hard. Most feel the 3.0 Os upgrade shoujldbe out this week, but I don’t think a delay there would affect the pps.

Right now we are either following the market’s drop or are seeing a sell the news before the news even is out.

Tommo_UK - 08 June 2009 08:46 AM

Plato - 08 June 2009 08:44 AM

Sold half of my 140 July Puts @ $7.10 this morning. Waiting for WWDC - I think if SJ does not appear the stock will go down more, since everyone expects a big surprise.

Well Apple stated categorically in an official release that Jobs will NOT be taking part in the Keynote, so anyone expecting any different is living on hot air and hope…

I agree - but if you read some blogs on the weekend and listened to Jim G. on CNBC this morning, the speculations are alive and all over the place. And by now we now that WS loves to play with those speculations.

On another note - I should have bought PALM puts, darned! Down 10% this morning, although they met their sales expectations on the weekend for their Pre.

Plato - 08 June 2009 08:52 AM

On another note - I should have bought PALM puts, darned! Down 10% this morning, although they met their sales expectations on the weekend for their Pre.

Palm’s open isn’t being helped by this Business Week article, much of which I think is spot on:

http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/jun2009/tc2009062_915044.htm

willrob - 08 June 2009 08:48 AM

From what I’ve been reading over the weekend, everyone expects new iPhone announcements — video models, $99 model, etc. I haven;t seen anyone say they expect Steve to show up. Tablet rumors have been sparse, mostly saying later announcement once he returns. If the new phones are even mentioned (which would be very unlikely), then expect the stock to drop hard. Most feel the 3.0 Os upgrade shoujldbe out this week, but I don’t think a delay there would affect the pps.

Right now we are either following the market’s drop or are seeing a sell the news before the news even is out.

It used to be “run the stock up at the open, sell it on any news, whatever the news,” at WWDC.. now they just pre-sell the news for a trade off the previous week’s run-up. Its as old a trade as apple pie

None of it matters. Its all bollocks. The new phones will come out. The new OS will blow everything else away, even running on the “old” iPhones, and come Summer everyone will be raving about it and the stock will run back up, whatever traders do to it now. Personally I hope Steve stays away and just makes his appearance not at WWDC but at Cupertino, quietly, and business-like, with no fanfare. WWDC is about Snow Leopard, OS 3 for the iPhone and possibly the new phone announcements. Who the f*ck should care if it comes out today, or in three weeks, when there are 52 weeks in a year and 10 years in a decade? AAPL is a trader’s plaything, one of the few ol’ reliable ones still playing by the same rulebook as the good years because the same ol’ rumours and dynamics around SJ and “special events” still move the stock, and the media are happy to play patsy and talking heads for the shills feeding them all the BS which moves the stock intraday and short-term.

Timing is irrelevant. Profits and revenues are all that matters - the story routinely ignored since about 2006 in the face of bullshit stock options backdating “scandals,” fanatic anal-obsession with iHyperdrives and how many Krispy Kremes SJ might have had for breakfast.

I think I’ll go back to my cave. Nothing changes, lol.
A-holes.

And please don’t forget what run we had over the past weeks in the market as well as in AAPL. People are taking profits and specially in light of the WWDC, I assume a lot of trader say, I am not taking the risk of a disappointment, I am cashing in my profit and wait what Apple will announce.

AAPL is being nicely range-bound this AM. 

Probably will see another move before WWDC. . .have no idea of direction.

BTW, nice to see Tommo back for a bit. Like many, I too miss his prose. 

Play Ultimate - 08 June 2009 10:01 AM

BTW, nice to see Tommo back for a bit. Like many, I too miss his prose. 

Amen.

Although I don’t see aapl at 200 like he and his european buddies hope to see it by the end of the year.

The guy on CNBC said that if S&P goes below 929, watch out. 931 right now.

I agree that some of today’s early drop is part of the sell WWDC news.

But more importantly aapl is simply following the overall market.  regardless of what is announced, the stock will drop because the market is read.

I can still recall Jan 08 when MacWorld started aapl dropped 5% mostly because the market was crashing not because people were not happy with MacAir.  We all know how well that sold, but the market still called the shots on where aapl was going.

omacvi - 08 June 2009 10:24 AM

But more importantly aapl is simply following the overall market.

At least for today, I agree.  The early morning sell-off was market-wide.