What a great topic.  It humors me to think that people believe Apple is slowing down.  I’ve spent my life around the tech industry on the government side.  A bigger issue for Apple in my opinion rather then innovation is transparency.  When your trying to implement technology initiatives in your own organization you need to sort of have a roadmap of where things are heading.  Apple is not particularly good at providing a roadmap so you have to divine it, Microsoft provides a roadmap and then fails to deliver on time.  Both cause huge issue when you rely on a particular company and their technology for your implementation.  as an example.  We had a device we built for recording wind reading from a probe using GPS.  The embedded GPS we were using was upgraded by our vendor just prior to a major purchase order from the government.  Anyway we did not have sufficient quantity of the old GPS unit and were forced to upgrade.  We were unable to sufficiently test the new sensor and when we used it at a major demonstration it failed due to some minor firmware changes by the GPS vendor which caused it to lose GPS lock and then never regain signal.  How does this relate to Apple?  As more and more organizations rely on Apple for their key technologies Apple must be cognizant of the needs of these organizations.  Rolling out a completely new OS or a new processor in a cell phone can cause a major headache for the people relying on your technology.  Apple has a lot of new developers which rely on a consistent platform for development and they do not want such a rapid pace of change that their programs all fail otherwise you run into Microsoft’s problem of not offering enough new via Vista that organizations are willing to take the plunge and rewrite all their existing software.  In a way Apple had it easier when they could focus on the consumer. 
Innovation often comes in spurts for instance we have yet to see the fruits of the PA Semi acquisition, the timeline to move from design specification to behavioral design to physical design to silicon debug spans several years.  Apple made the strategic decision to build there own mobile SOC when they went after PA SEMI.  They obviously looked at what Intel, and Samsung ect. were doing.  They have now assemble a team and if we look at 2009 we spent a bunch of money on nothing, but in 2010 Apple could set the standard for performance per watt which all others try to beat.  All the OS legwork is set to deliver a low power multi-core mobile processor.  How exactly Apple uses this technology is still to be determined since Apple does not provide a roadmap, but I would bet my life they have some amazing devices in the lab that need a bit more power to be truly revolutionary.

Thank you, rattyuk.

I don’t think they have slowed down, I just feel like they are releasing a few more pieces of the foundation of something big. I’ve had the feeling for a few years now, that Apple, unlike many other companies, has very long range plans that extend out perhaps by decades. They seem to be developing and acquiring technology for something big. I think once it hits, we’ll be able to look back and say “oh, so that’s why they bought that company, or hired that guy, or released that software.” It’s happened before with them. Steve’s grand plan is unfolding, he’s just done so well lately that the masses are getting impatient. We want the future NOW!

pats - 10 June 2009 03:04 PM

... I’ve spent my life around the tech industry on the government side ...

I’ve spent some years doing so too.  I’ve always thought public officers try to cover their lack of vision with demand for deterministic roadmap.  Anyhoo, do you think Apple should sell to corporate?

As for Woodward’s concern, it could be lack of SJ’s magic.  For example, Snow Leopard come across as an update that speed up your applications.  SJ could say “You have twice the computer with SL”.

Btw, I noted MacBooks, MacBook Pros, MBAs, Mac minis and iMacs are based on similar circuitry, all use Nvidia 9400M.  More powerful models have an extra 9400.

Personally, I don’t think Apple is pulling back on innovation. Trimming down Mac OS and setting the template for multi-core processor software development for years to come are not sexy features, but it’s still innovation.

It seems like the biggest disappointment of Apple after Macworld or WWDC announcements revolves around whether or not we have neat new toys to play with. [ What… no Apple Netbook??! All the pundits were predicting that Apple would announce a new netbook. No new iPhone either?? ]

Apple has done a marvelous job of streamlining their product lines, but if there was one thing I would complain about, it would be that in some cases, they’ve chosen homogenous, slick design over function. Every single product now sports the exact same keyboard + layout; it’s almost as Apple thinks their stuff is too cool to sport a numeric keypad. You would think that could be included with the extra $200 you pay for a 17” laptop, or that you justifiably shouldn’t have to ask for it when you buy a desktop. Oh, well.

So, summing up: innovation hasn’t ceased, but that’s not something that is necessarily evident with software. New technologies will continue to find its way into Apple designed products, even though they occasionally choose looks over function.

xmattingly - 11 June 2009 07:23 PM

So, summing up: innovation hasn’t ceased, but that’s not something that is necessarily evident with software. New technologies will continue to find its way into Apple designed products, even though they occasionally choose looks over function.

Matt Buchanan has just put an article up over at Gizmodo positing the theory that Apple have cleared out the use of the word MacBook from their line up to relaunch the product line as something entirely new.

The article can be read here:

why-macbook-is-about-to-mean-something-else-entirely.

rattyuk - 11 June 2009 09:13 PM

Matt Buchanan has just put an article up over at Gizmodo positing the theory that Apple have cleared out the use of the word MacBook from their line up to relaunch the product line as something entirely new.

That’s a very interesting read - thanks for sharing, rattyuk. And in light of the rumor-mongering of a possible netbook or tablet, that would totally make sense. Apple has had quite a history of telegraphing their moves in plain sight…

Anyway, if an all-new form factor for a Macbook does surface, my guess is this: a clamshell device with two facing screens, twice the width of an iPhone screen with at least one of them functioning as a multi-touch surface. Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, flash storage, etc. Honestly though, who the hell knows? Could be anything in the pipeline. Or nothing.

And if it is something, it’ll be announced in September, in line with what has become Apple’s traditional product introductions for the holidays.

The thing about Apple is, it used to be primarily a great Mac & computing company. Now, and actually for the past several years Apple, and even this website (I think we should re-name this site AppleObserver since there is very little “Mac” anymore.) has become a phone and MP3 player company/forum.
I personally don’t care a whit about either. That’s partially why I don’t post here anymore. Neither has anything to do with why I chose Apple as a platform for computing (graphics and movies) as well as e-mail etc. That’s just my world so don’t flame me for that. The phone and MP3 player are cool toys but that’s it.

Computing? HP has been selling NETBOOKS like hotcakes (some say to the detriment of their PC sales), in fact netbooks in general have outsold iPhones for the last few quarters - though they have different purposes a lot of features intersect - web browsing, music, etc.
Where is Apple in this? A market is a market.
HP has a touch wide-screen laptop for almost a year now -Apple still has no touch screen computing.
The Kindle is tearing up the e-reader world, we all know print media is a dead horse; again-where is Apple in all this??
Blu-Ray - 1080p - hello Apple, are you there???

This is my answer to Apple’s “lack of innovation” post. I’m a big Apple fan since ‘84 just wishing that Apple would get busy with a netbook and/or some vision for a better faster graphics display technology and maybe some touch features on a full blown computer.
Phones and MP3 players are great,. but if that is what Apple is going to be i.e. Sony, then I am increasingly getting frustrated with Cupertino.

CudaBoy - 11 June 2009 10:54 PM

This is my answer to Apple’s “lack of innovation” post.

Looking at your “join date” shows that you have lingered here a long time.

In some respects I agree with your assessment. Apple should be in some of those markets and probably will be. Remember though that the iPod was not the first mp3 player. I trust Apple is looking at ways to profitably enter those markets.
.

I’ll agree that there has been a “feeling a disappointment” around the events, but I think this feeling is completely unjustified as a measure of the innovation machine at Apple. The primary reason is that the interest and hype around these events has grown to a point where the weeks preceding have become a fantasy filled hysteria. In other words, the expectations are simply way to high to leave anything but a feeling of disappointment afterwards. The interest in Apple is so high and the size of the ‘fan base’ has grown so large that there is an immense amount of speculation and overly creative thinking going on prior to the events. Look at the doctored photographs and number of stories about what will be announced at the show. It’s a great way to attract eyeballs to a web page and everyone knows this.

Do we have a single indicator of slowing innovation at Apple. No.

We also have no way of knowing what is going on within Apple’s “innovation pipeline’. It’s obviously in their interests to keep these ideas under wraps until it’s just the right time to seize the appropriate moment to release someone new and innovative.

I also believe we are being very blase about the enhancements in both hardware and software of the new iPhone. They may seem merely incremental to many, but the new OS, APIs, and hardware add-ons create an even stronger platform for development. I believe in the next 12 months we’ll see more applications created that will completely blow us away. This virtuous cycle of a cool device with a powerful SDK has led to more developers creating more applications, leading to more customers, leading to more developers raising more dollars, investing more in software developement leading to more customers etc. The enhancements just announced will start this vortex spinning faster and faster, and some amazing innovation will come from the developers seeing further by standing on Apple’s shoulders. I believe Apple will start to gap the competition in this area. This may not be seen as Apple’s innovation, but it is powerful nonetheless.

It’s fun to speculate on the what’s coming next from Apple, but I’m pretty sure our imaginings happen faster than reality allows. If two years from now we find that in fact nothing was in the pipleline, then we will look back and see that there was an innovation problem. But to me, the Apple innovation engine is completely intact, the only thing that has changed in the public’s expectation for the heavens to open up at every media event.

Innovation is an exercise that goes in fits and starts. You’ll never see a company continuously provide a world-changing product every year. Maybe once every 5 years. Maybe 1 year, then a truly innovative product another 4 years later, or a decade later, than 2 years later after that.

Steve Jobs’ product time line:

1977 Apple II
1983 LISA (?)
1984 Macintosh
1988 NeXTSTEP and NeXTCube
1998 iMac
2001 Max OS X
2001 iPod
2003 iTunes
2007 iPhone
2010 maybe a media tablet but don’t see the market for one

In between there have been some failures. AppleTV has mostly been just experimentation. Lots of things have been refinements. Mind-blowing products every year is simply not sustainable. The company simply would never make a profit. Something mind-blowing could be produced, but if makes no profit, there’s no point! It doesn’t help the company. So these things go in fits and starts, dependent on market timing and product execution.

As an investor, I see it as frankly irresponsible to try to produce a market-altering, mind blowing product every year. Apple has to cement it’s position in the “smartphone” market and that should be their number 1 goal along with maintaining Mac growth and iPod dominance. So, iPhone 3G and 3G-S are the right moves. Build your market, do the things necessary to maintain and make it grow. Reap the rewards to put yourself in position to do the next insanely great thing.

And they are not done with the “smartphone” market yet and are still vulnerable. They are currently beholden to 1 carrier in their dominant market, the USA. Eventually, they have to branch out. In fact, with cell phones, they are too dependent on their wireless partner. They should branch out to at least 2 so that there is some modicum of competition (hopefully not collusion) on service plans. They need to defend their media content turf. Advertising based content (read free, but with commercials) is something that will hurt iTunes if they don’t offer something similar (free).

In fact, most companies only ever have 1 truly innovative idea that they can monetize. It’s amazing that in the last 10 years, Apple has 2 unique ones (iPod, iPhone), and maybe 3 or 4 if you loosen up your definitions a little bit (Mac OS X, and unique PC design). Jobs has had 1 more on the side with Pixar too.

As a fan of Apple, expecting innovation every year is nice. That’s why we’re fans. But believing that they can do it is getting close to delusional.

CudaBoy - 11 June 2009 10:54 PM

Computing? HP has been selling NETBOOKS like hotcakes (some say to the detriment of their PC sales), in fact netbooks in general have outsold iPhones for the last few quarters - though they have different purposes a lot of features intersect - web browsing, music, etc.
Where is Apple in this? A market is a market.
HP has a touch wide-screen laptop for almost a year now -Apple still has no touch screen computing.
The Kindle is tearing up the e-reader world, we all know print media is a dead horse; again-where is Apple in all this??
Blu-Ray - 1080p - hello Apple, are you there???

This is my answer to Apple’s “lack of innovation” post. I’m a big Apple fan since ‘84 just wishing that Apple would get busy with a netbook and/or some vision for a better faster graphics display technology and maybe some touch features on a full blown computer.
Phones and MP3 players are great,. but if that is what Apple is going to be i.e. Sony, then I am increasingly getting frustrated with Cupertino.

The only innovative thing about netbooks are its cheapness and it’s cannibalization of higher margin products. Apple don’t do anything involving revenue and profit reducing ventures. They may be forced to in order to maintain some turf, but that’s different from willingly producing a product that reduces your revenue and profits.

Tablets in their current incarnation are ugly, a solution looking for a big market. Apple’s tried to come up with a product, saw not much of a market, and used what they learned to make the iPhone.

The world is going digital yes. But, it’s not going digital in the form of DRM required electronic devices made to look like a book. Let Amazon, Sony, etc play in the sand as long as they want as that’s the last gasp attempt buy publishers to maintain their business model. Eventually, they will sell books for all electronic devices and the eBook hardware market is going to crash. The new device will be like a 10” iPod touch, a jack of all trades. So it’s a race to when the content is freed and which market captures it first.

Apple is simply waiting for Blu-ray to die, as they probably believe 720p downloaded content will be the winner.

Given the high expectations, it’s possible that Apple is deliberately not showing anything too remarkable at WWDC.

If expectations are overblown, you’re not going to meet them whatever you do.  Better to go “business as usual”, and then release something great on your own schedule, than to release something great but to have a “ho-hum” response because people were expecting something even more fantastic.

CudaBoy - 11 June 2009 10:54 PM

I personally don’t care a whit about either. That’s partially why I don’t post here anymore. Neither has anything to do with why I chose Apple as a platform for computing (graphics and movies) as well as e-mail etc. That’s just my world so don’t flame me for that. The phone and MP3 player are cool toys but that’s it.

This is not a flame but the Mac does very well in this area. In fact the real problem Apple has with the Mac is that as a computer interface it is not in your face and I can still accomplish things far faster on a Mac than on anything else. I don’t really see how Apple could improve on this other than to escape the desktop metaphor completely and I don’t think that is on the cards in the short term.

Computing? HP has been selling NETBOOKS like hotcakes (some say to the detriment of their PC sales), in fact netbooks in general have outsold iPhones for the last few quarters - though they have different purposes a lot of features intersect - web browsing, music, etc.

I think I’d prefer to back the horse with the iPhone (with a nice profit on each and every one sold) rather than the race to the bottom that is the netbook market. Remember that the iPhone is one device from one company. You are comparing sales of that product with the WHOLE netbook category - oh and remind me who’s making money there?

Where is Apple in this? A market is a market.

A lot of netbooks get returned the idea is great but the execution leaves a lot to be desired.

HP has a touch wide-screen laptop for almost a year now -Apple still has no touch screen computing.
The Kindle is tearing up the e-reader world, we all know print media is a dead horse; again-where is Apple in all this??
Blu-Ray - 1080p - hello Apple, are you there???

How is the touch screen computing world taking everyone. I agree that it is built into Windows 7 and everyone and his dog will have a machine with it come Christmas - but are they actually being used? Touch is better suited to a tablet rather than a desk or laptop computer as it works based on how you hold it. Holding your hand in front of you to touch a screen as your main input ain’t really going to catch on - it bloody hurts after a while.

Kindle - well lookie here Apple can’t do EVERYTHING. Other people should be allowed to innovate too you know. The conversations about the kindle could have been had about Apple NOT entering the MP3 market. I think they generally wait and see what is happening and then come in with the better designed product. A book reader is NOT a product really this market will take off when it does more. And the current display while great on battery life and the eye still does that refreshing thing when moving from page to page - not very Apple like.

Blu-Ray. I think the reason it is not in anything Apple have at the moment is because of the DRM requirements I think Apple have decided not to play there. The future is downloads anyway - hard copies are going away.

This is my answer to Apple’s “lack of innovation” post. I’m a big Apple fan since ‘84 just wishing that Apple would get busy with a netbook and/or some vision for a better faster graphics display technology and maybe some touch features on a full blown computer.

Apple have just had a big launch of stuff for developers. The primary point of that was to enthuse the (now massive) development team to start producing stuff using the new core technologies. This is where the magic WILL happen. It probably looks slow if you are just surfing the internet to see what Apple have done today. But, as mentioned before in this thread, these things take time.

Apple have stopped doing MacWorld in Jan. I think the primary reason for that would be to stop the insane issue of Apple releasing stuff AFTER the main buying season. This was totally insane and lead to the market manipulation of the stock price around that time over the years. Now Apple have wrested control back I think we will see some VERY interesting launches this year. Just because the WWDC dog and pony show didn’t launch the product YOU wanted doesn’t mean Apple is done for the year. They will produce stuff, magically stuff, just on their own agenda. And you know what? It will be in your hands before the Microsoft project Natal brouhaha will hit the shelves. Some companies TALK about what they are doing. Others just do it. I know which companies offerings I prefer.

rattyuk - 12 June 2009 06:08 AM

I think I’d prefer to back the horse with the iPhone (with a nice profit on each and every one sold) rather than the race to the bottom that is the netbook market.

Yes, that’s exactly how a Sony executive described the netbook market. Though… I will say that with the shrinking of OS X’s core in 10.6 and lighter system requirements, Apple has set up the pieces to do some very cool stuff in this product category, if they chose to.

Apple have stopped doing MacWorld in Jan. I think the primary reason for that would be to stop the insane issue of Apple releasing stuff AFTER the main buying season.

I have to reaffirm my last post - Apple’s profitability has leaned very heavily on the consumer market, so new holiday products have become very important to them. I don’t think we can expect anything really groundbreaking from the iPod lineup this year, so there’s definitely room for a new headline-grabbing device.