Back on May 23rd I posted Realtytrac’s total foreclosures as 1,913,073.
On June 21st, the current number of foreclosures was 1,947,878.
That is a rise of 34,000 in a month. And like I said, they said their numbers were NOT cumulative. They were current numbers.
The current number June 25th was 1,962,567.
The current number June 27th at realtytrac was 1,970,744
The current number June 29th was 1,976,933
The current number July 1st was 1,968,864
The current number July 2nd was 1,979,063
The current number July 4th was 1,986,423
The current number July 5th was 1,979,835
The current number July 6th was 1,962,353
The current number July 7th was 1,951,656
The current number July 7th afternoon was 1,960,408
The current number July 9th was 1,963,443
The current number July 10th was 1,954,505
The current number July 10th afternoon was 1,929,297
The current number July 12th was 1,934,506
The current number July 13th was 1,931,898
IT STILL LOOKS BAD TO ME WITH NO GOOD NEWS IN SIGHT!
In other words, carpenters, electricians, plumbers, Home Depot, Lowes, all the home builders and especially the CITIES will continue to hurt into at least next year. I see MASSIVE city layoffs next year. Teachers, firemen, policemen and all city workers will be affected.It is inevitable.
I am depressed that I agree with you on this topic. With ARM resets coming over the next couple of years, I don’t see a way for the housing market to truely bottom until the price declines to meet affordibility/demand. Attempts to prop up the market prices seem destined to fail. The blue-collar work force jobs represented by the declining construction trades and the manufacturing jobs that have been out-sourced overseas have killed the entry and middle level housing demand and the loss of this income has to roll up into the municipal and state tax bases and eliminated the ability of sellers to sell their property and move up to a larger/better house. I live in Alabama, one of the states that opted out of the federal aid for unemployment comp. I still have not received my state income tax refund. Absent buyers with money and confidence that the housing market has at least bottomed, I don’t see a recovery without significant further price declines (25 to 30%). California is just the first of many states to have very painful budget decisions.
BTW - your posts are always excellant and witty.
IT STILL LOOKS BAD TO ME WITH NO GOOD NEWS IN SIGHT!
In other words, carpenters, electricians, plumbers, Home Depot, Lowes, all the home builders and especially the CITIES will continue to hurt into at least next year. I see MASSIVE city layoffs next year. Teachers, firemen, policemen and all city workers will be affected.It is inevitable.
Relax…
We’re still making people. As long as the population continues to climb we will see an increase in the demand for housing.
To make homes more affordable, builders will be moving to smaller floor plans. Alternative forms of financing will return in new ways. The American Dream of home ownership is still a powerful cultural and political force.
The foreclosure dilemma has a regional and local face to it. If one were to take out of the equation areas of the upper midwest facing depression-magnitude challenges (Detroit, for example) as well as the exurbs in California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona, etc., one sees the worst of the crisis is occurring due to local economic conditions. Many of the areas experiencing the greatest housing pain are areas that underwent a building boom that could not be justified by the economics of the local area.
But an important point has been made concerning local governments and revenue. I’ve received automatic rollbacks in my property tax bill totaling about 25% from the constitutionally determined limits (in California property taxes are limited to 1.25% of the purchase price plus voter-approved indebtedness and a slight inflation factor). In many areas of the country, state, county and local governments will be hit hard by the fall off in housing prices. This means other taxes must be raised and/or the Federal government will need to increase spending to subsidize services formerly financed by the state and local governments.
There will be far too much political pressure to extend the stimulus largesse to make up for lower state and local tax receipts.
But look on the bright side: By international standards US real estate is cheap and the real estate market runs in cycles. The residential real estate market will be in slow recovery mode by next spring.
“In the last 60 days 213 hotel owners have defaulted on their loans in California, a 184 percent jump over the previous 60 days, Reay said. Reay predicted that the vast majority of hotels that were financed with loans that tapped the commercial mortgage-backed securities market between 2005 and 2007 will end up in default, a number that could top 2,000 in California alone.
“We’re in a deep recession and hotels are suffering the most of any real estate class right now,” said Reay.
A report by Atlas Hospitality estimates that room revenues in California are down 21.5 percent in 2009 and that values are 50 to 80 percent lower than they were at the market’s peak from 2005 to 2007.”
The commercial real estate bubble is even bigger than the Residental housing bubble, Commercial property owners won’t hesitate to give the property back like residential owners who will hang on til the very end…
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