(My usual qualifier:  I am not much of a technician.)  On the Daily Chart I call attention to a few interesting facts.

1) If you draw a trendline from the high of May 13, 2008 through the high of August 14, 2008, we bounced off it perfectly on two weeks ago on June 5th.

2) Though we crossed above the 200-day MA on April 9th, interpreted by some as a change in trend, the direction of the 200-day is still down.

3) RSI(14) is acting poorly, failing to make new highs at the mini-peaks on May 5th and again on June 4th.

I am not sure any conclusions should be drawn from this, but it would not shock me if we were to test the 200-day MA this summer.  Perhaps not until after it turns up.

Thoughts?

capablanca - 16 June 2009 09:59 PM

(My usual qualifier:  I am not much of a technician.)  On the Daily Chart I call attention to a few interesting facts.

1) If you draw a trendline from the high of May 13, 2008 through the high of August 14, 2008, we bounced off it perfectly on two weeks ago on June 5th.

2) Though we crossed above the 200-day MA on April 9th, interpreted by some as a change in trend, the direction of the 200-day is still down.

3) RSI(14) is acting poorly, failing to make new highs at the mini-peaks on May 5th and again on June 4th.

I am not sure any conclusions should be drawn from this, but it would not shock me if we were to test the 200-day MA this summer.  Perhaps not until after it turns up.

Thoughts?

Doesn’t seem to be too many interested in TA. Anyway you made some valid points.

1) APPL shot though this trend line, dropped back below and now is dead on it. Also if you draw a trend line from the Dec. 07 peak touching the May 08 high it is around $150-160 now. This should stop it, “if” it is still going up.

2) APPL is above both the 200 & 50-day MA. It could still easy test both and be in an upward market. The 200 is at about $108 and dropping and the 50 is at $129 and rising. It looks like institutional buying occured when the 50 crossed over the 200 since that was the May low in AAPL. If it drops to either of these MAs, expect either major buying or selling. My cut is that it will depend on the mood of the broad markets.

3) RSI and other oscillators are flagging problems. I use stochastics and while AAPL is currently resting at its 5-day and 20-day MAs, stochastics are hard down indicating the expected move should be down. On a weekly chart, AAPL is way overbought and due for a multi-week drop.

cramar - 18 June 2009 11:22 AM

On a weekly chart, AAPL is way overbought and due for a multi-week drop.

I agree.  My only concern about shorting at this time is what the return of SJ may due to the stock price. We may see a quick uptick before moving down.

capablanca - 16 June 2009 09:59 PM

[...]

1) If you draw a trendline from the high of May 13, 2008 through the high of August 14, 2008, we bounced off it perfectly on two weeks ago on June 5th.

2) Though we crossed above the 200-day MA on April 9th, interpreted by some as a change in trend, the direction of the 200-day is still down.

3) RSI(14) is acting poorly, failing to make new highs at the mini-peaks on May 5th and again on June 4th.

[...]

In the last two weeks we have rocketed through the trendline cited above.  And we now rest on the last and perhaps most important downtrend line.  It is the one drawn from the high of 202.96 the week of 12/24/07 through the May 13th high. 

On the weekly chart RSI made a new high, but only barely.  Stochastic remains overbought.  We also had our biggest volume week since we began rising from the March lows.

On the daily, RSI and MACD are both strong.  Stochastic is overbought.  And most interesting is the 200-day moving average, which has now turned up for the 1st time since July of ‘08.  The price is now 50 points above the 200 dma, which is getting rich.

Just today, and for the first time since March of ‘07, RSI(7) went above 70 on the monthly, weekly, and daily charts.  This is the definition of Distribution Territory according to some technicians.  In May of ‘08 we came very close, but monthly topped out at about 68.

According to the theory, if weekly and daily RSI(7) now fall below 70, it is time for swing traders to get out.

(I believe it was mtdoc who taught me this, but I cannot remember for sure.  I searched the old threads, but cannot find it, so maybe not.)

I think the interest in TA is still there it’s just the trend is so strong with the indices that TA is not working too well.  I have been selling into strength and the daily RSI was 87 the other day which it has not been that high in at least a year.  Housing data is showing more and more signs of recovery which should only fuel the trend long term.  I’m hoping for a little correction but honestly how much of a correction will this market allow right now, maybe 5% on the indices which with a beta of 1.6 for aapl is about 8%?  On a daily MACD is showing bearish divergence (new highs on the stock price and a dropping MACD).  Middle BB around 152 which could be a place that buyers would come back perhaps?  Definitely a tough one to figure out.  Hope we can keep this thread alive.  Thanks for starting it up again.

All the technicals are lined up on one side like a rare planetary alignment. The issue is not if there will be a correction here, but how deep?  Is this just going to be a shallow temporary pullback, a major correction to the five-month climb, or the resumption of the long-term bear market? The smart thing to be is in cash right now waiting to see how deep this will go.