capablanca - 08 March 2011 12:07 AM

mbeauch - 04 March 2011 11:38 PM

Sorry Capa, EMA 20 which is 350.97 as of the close. I feel this will be safe for 45+/- days. I know I am putting my neck out here with this. It is just what I see.

Let’s hope you nailed this one, Mark.  Today’s low was right at the EMA20; it bounced off and closed a bit higher, making you look good so far.

I noticed that to Capa, to the penny by my charts. I am not gonna get overly excited, but the way it bounced off the 20 was encouraging. My thought stands going forward. If someone would just clean their rifle in Libya we could get past this.

mbeauch - 08 March 2011 12:54 AM

capablanca - 08 March 2011 12:07 AM

mbeauch - 04 March 2011 11:38 PM

Sorry Capa, EMA 20 which is 350.97 as of the close. I feel this will be safe for 45+/- days. I know I am putting my neck out here with this. It is just what I see.

Let’s hope you nailed this one, Mark.  Today’s low was right at the EMA20; it bounced off and closed a bit higher, making you look good so far.

I noticed that to Capa, to the penny by my charts. I am not gonna get overly excited, but the way it bounced off the 20 was encouraging. My thought stands going forward. If someone would just clean their rifle in Libya we could get past this.

I’ll ignore the chicken entrails, but respond to the Libya reference. I won’t recount what an obvious scumbag The Colonel is, but he has been a Hobbesian model of stability for decades. This unrest isn’t caused by his regime, it’s caused by the revolutionaries, regardless of the justness of their cause.

A bullet in Gaddafi might feel good, but it is unlikely stability would ensue as quickly as if the protests just went away. Again, for the PC with reading comp issues, I’m not making a moral judgment here, just a realpolitik one.

In Capablanca´s territory. Have been posting lately concerns related to volume divergence with prices. Believe we are seeing Institutional selling on buying spikes and February highs may be strong resistance and maybe turning point for the scenario drawn. $355 area has also become a royal pain to get through also. Sorry to recap once more as it makes more sense by putting it together.

There is a bearish divergence between price and volume. Volume pattern on the stock never really recovered after a distribution wave that hit by January 18 as Apple announced earnings report. The $348 area we just recovered made the first appearance, first as all-time-highs at January 14 close ($348.48) to be recovered and surpassed February 7 ($351.88 close). A reminder of the number came on the mini-flash-crash of February 10, when we went from $360 to $348 on a blink of an eye.

Even though prices have recovered and even gone much higher at times, volume pattern has not. This may suggest institutional selling on buying spikes to lighten up long-term positions or profit-taking. A trip to the 50-week simple moving average at $339.98, today not far from the lower Bollinger and concurrent to the lower ascending channel would hint to a more drastic correction first to the $325 unfilled gap and later to the void, maybe at or below $300.

This could happen before summer, however timing is not a good realm for humans.

BrazilNuts - 08 March 2011 10:42 AM

In Capablanca´s territory. Have been posting lately concerns related to volume divergence with prices. Believe we are seeing Institutional selling on buying spikes and February highs may be strong resistance and maybe turning point for the scenario drawn. $355 area has also become a royal pain to get through also. Sorry to recap once more as it makes more sense by putting it together.

There is a bearish divergence between price and volume. Volume pattern on the stock never really recovered after a distribution wave that hit by January 18 as Apple announced earnings report. The $348 area we just recovered made the first appearance, first as all-time-highs at January 14 close ($348.48) to be recovered and surpassed February 7 ($351.88 close). A reminder of the number came on the mini-flash-crash of February 10, when we went from $360 to $348 on a blink of an eye.

Even though prices have recovered and even gone much higher at times, volume pattern has not. This may suggest institutional selling on buying spikes to lighten up long-term positions or profit-taking. A trip to the 50-week simple moving average at $339.98, today not far from the lower Bollinger and concurrent to the lower ascending channel would hint to a more drastic correction first to the $325 unfilled gap and later to the void, maybe at or below $300.

This could happen before summer, however timing is not a good realm for humans.

Cogent analysis.  (This is really territory of former AFB members who taught me to pay attention to charts.)

I bought the dip a short while ago when we neared the 50EMA at 345.50.  But I did it by selling OCT300 Puts.  I got almost $18 and won’t mind having to buy more shares at $300.

It seems to be a war between technicals which, as BrailNuts points out, are weak and the fundamentals which could hardly be better.  As mentioned above, the 50EMA has held nicely in the last few months; we shall see.