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WSJ reporting Steve Jobs had liver transplant
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DawnTreader
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As I have posted before, I have observed a 9 month cycle of dramatic declines in Apple share prices, the last being early October 2008. If this SJ health report causes a significant decline in share price next week it will be right in line with this 9 month cycle. This is one of the reasons I have been holding a significant amount of cash since late May, rather than being all in AAPL. I suppose we’ll see if the pattern continues next week.
You have been consistent in noting the share price cycles. I don’t think the health issue will have the impact on the share price it has had in the past. WWDC clearly indicated Apple can successfully release new products without SJ sitting actively in the captain’s chair and the comparatively trouble-free launch of the 3G S is another feather in management’s cap. Obviously I hope for SJ’s successful return within days or weeks and I’m hopeful his return, despite reports of this major surgery, will actually have a positive impact on the share price.
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OTOH:
If Apple announces MONDAY morning they have shipped +1 million 3GS +X million $99 iphones for a total of XX iphones, AAPL will rise.The WSJ story is a wildcard. I think Apple will announce they sold 1mm units. The Apple Store where I shop had approx. 50 employees on the floor, selling them much faster than last year. More “throughput,” combined with online ordering and in-home activation makes line-watching an inaccurate indicator this time.
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DawnTreader
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Our man P.E.D. has a nice followup on the Steve Job stories.
That is a nice follow-up. We’ll see what news about his recovery comes next. I would think returning to work so quickly at the end of June (if the original stories and surgery timeline are accurate) is a bit optimistic.
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Our man P.E.D. has a nice followup on the Steve Job stories.
That is a nice follow-up. We’ll see what news about his recovery comes next. I would think returning to work so quickly at the end of June (if the original stories and surgery timeline are accurate) is a bit optimistic.
I agree. And he’s smart enough to know his health is more important than any artificial deadline at the end of June.
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DawnTreader
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If the reports are accurate, it’s better to take time now than be forced to take even more time later. Apple is doing fine, the management team is achieving positive results during his absence and new products continue to roll off the production lines. Hopefully the attention of the press will turn to other matters and allow him to recuperate without undue focus and relentless reporting on rumors concerning his surgery and recovery.
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Hopefully the attention of the press will turn to other matters and allow him to recuperate without undue focus and relentless reporting on rumors concerning his surgery and recovery.
As much as one might hope the press will focus on the current management team and let Steve rest, that won’t happen. For some of the press, the alarmist headline will just change from ‘He’s dying!” to “Is he still dying!” <apologies for the crude sentence> As Steve is an intensely private individual who shuns the day to day spotlight, there will be a voyeuristic demand for updates on his health. People will want to know how he is doing versus the survival odds for a liver transplant patient. Although this kind of coverage will be annoying and distracting, the net effect on the stock should be a reduction of the negatives on the stock, but not necessary a upwards driver in the short -term.
I will be buying around 90 shares Monday based on the 3GS launch, the 3.0 software release, the long awaited China announcement and the new MacBooks.
I shelled out the $499 to get the new 3GS Friday as I lost my 3G traveling through Delta-Hell in Atlanta on Tuesday before I had an opportunity to load the ‘Where the hell is my iPhone?” software. Not surprisingly, no one has called to offer to send me my old phone :(
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I share the sentiments of this article. In particular, I share Kay’s view:
“Kay is skeptical Apple will be able to continue its success simply by asking itself, “What would Steve do?” After all, the message that Apple’s bench is deep and capable is coming from Apple itself.
“You can always do product extensions, it doesn’t take a genius,” Kay said. “Who’s going to come up with a new product category that’s going to do what the iPhone and the iPod have done?”
Jobs’ health problems could push him to groom a successor, a task Kay said the CEO has not likely undertaken.
“You don’t have a little Steve somewhere waiting in the wings,” Kay said. “An autocrat like Steve would not allow somebody like Steve anywhere near himself.”“
The post-SJ issue is can Apple come up with a new product category like iPod and iPhone. However, we don’t have to worry for another 3-5 years since potential of iPhone/touch have not fully realized yet. Hopefully, the part-time SJ can come up with that before he fully retired.
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Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish. - Steve Jobs
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In particular, I share Kay’s view:
“Kay is skeptical Apple will be able to continue its success simply by asking itself, “What would Steve do?” After all, the message that Apple’s bench is deep and capable is coming from Apple itself….
Apple is not run by yes-men guided by “what would Steve do?”; Kay’s argument operates by presuming its conclusion, so it’s just an opinion, not an argument.
SJ (like any genius) is a man, not a superman, whose vision proved to be at the right time and place. The principles that guided him are embedded in Apple, and can continue to deliver great new products for several decades more. For me, the main threat is to the stability of the management team if/when that central role suddenly unoccupied (in the minds of the other participants). But I suspect Apple’s management is ahead of us here.
It’s not the end of SJ’s participation at Apple that worries me; it’s the appointment in his place of the kind of short-termist senior management that occupies 19 out of 20 boardrooms that will raise alarm bells for Apple’s future.
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The release and timing of the transplant story was planned by Apple. The company is now
controlling the agenda. I believe they have planned some sort of end game and would be
greatly surprised if we do not hear more out of Cupertino today. Like the day SJ returns. Let us hope
they execute this PR as well as they do product releases. On another note Munster now says Apple sold 750,000 iPhones on the weekend noting that there was a full Friday included. The stock is down less than one percentage point in PM trading -
Another brilliant job of handling the media. If Jobs is CEO they have to report his medical condition and progress. He needs a transplant so he resigns as CEO; no reporting requirement. I never saw 1 word of speculation that non-disclosure of a specific treatment would be the reason for the leave.
I doubt he took much of a vacation. I had pneumonia last year. Best treatment for feeling crappy was to work. Developing new products would hardly impede with his recovery. As long as he kept his fingers clean, there’s no law against talking to your former CEO for advise.
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The more I see the less I know,
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LEAVE STEVE JOBS ALOOOOOOOONNNNNNE!!! :evil: :-x :devil:
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Just remember one thing….
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I can?t recall anything like this before: a top news source (and in this case, the preeminent U.S. business news source) reporting an enormous scoop about an important figure without even a hint, nothing, about where the information came from.here.
Isn’t the WSJ owned by Rupert Murdoch. Unsourced sensational stories are par for the course for Murdoch Media.
that said, it is very possible that this is true. If so I wish SJ the best. And I’d like to see everyone go out and register as an organ donar. Maybe some of these waiting lists could get a bit shorter because of this.
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Am I the only one who is sick and tired of the likes of CNBC trying to question Apple’s ethics? For heaven’s sake, this is the network that hosts Cramer. And as for all these talking heads coming on, most of them work for companies with dubious ethics.
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Throughout all my years of investing I’ve found that the big money was never made in the buying or the selling. The big money was made in the waiting. ? Jesse Livermore
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Earlier today they said that Jobs stepping aside in January caused the stock to drop, but didn’t bother to mention the market dropped and every other tech stock dropped also. Either they don’t like to do their homework, or they just don’t know how.
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Maybe some of these waiting lists could get a bit shorter because of this.
The waiting lists will get shorter when the “donors” are allowed to profit. If my perfectly healthy liver can’t get my family $20K or $30K, while doctor that transplants it gets a nice check, somebody else will just have to do without.
[ Edited: 22 June 2009 06:12 PM by Bosco (Brad Hutchings) ]
