iPhone v. Pre (Revisited)

  • Posted: 24 June 2009 01:30 PM #16

    Both my wife and I have switched from Verizon to At&t.  Certainly have not noticed a difference in network conditions in the Philadelphia metro area.

         
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    Posted: 24 June 2009 02:57 PM #17

    Tiger - 24 June 2009 04:13 PM

    I liked the headline premise…can Palm hold its own.

    Who wrote that headline, Y.N. Kerr?

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  • Posted: 24 June 2009 04:41 PM #18

    iPhone 3GS Tops T-Mobile G1 and Palm Pre in JavaScript Benchmarks

    Medialets today released the results of JavaScript benchmark tests performed using the SunSpider test suite on the iPhone 3G and 3GS, the T-Mobile G1 running Android, and the Palm Pre running webOS. The use of the SunSpider suite for benchmarking studies enables cross-platform comparisons among the devices, as they all utilize WebKit-based Web browsers. In the Medialets study, the iPhone 3GS outperformed the Palm Pre by a factor of three and the T-Mobile G1 by over a factor of five.

    Interesting that benchmarking has become a standard test for phones, much as it is for laptops/desktops.

         
  • Posted: 25 June 2009 03:31 AM #19

    Will the iPhone be the same when it is with VZ which has been known to cripple phones so as not to cripple their coverage and go for the jugular when it comes to services for the phone.

    Another thing how come it is always the iPhones that experience drop calls with AT&T and not other makes? LOL

         
  • Posted: 25 June 2009 05:15 AM #20

    Adan, welcome, this is a great place to share info on Apple.

    I don’t think that VZ will get to shape the iPhone to fit their peculiar pipeline. Maybe three years ago when the Verizon horizon seemed clear enough to turn down Apple and Steve Jobs’ new entry, but not today. Apple has redefined the smart phone and if VZ wants in next year VZ will offer the technical concessions. I would say the tone of that meeting between AAPL an VZ will be somewhat different than the one where they sent SJ packing.
    Good luck Adan, glad you’re here.

         
  • Posted: 25 June 2009 10:07 AM #21

    I remember reading that the ATT exclusive contract for the iPhone was to last for five years. Has this situation changed? If not, why the rumors of Verizon stepping in?

         
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    Posted: 25 June 2009 10:17 AM #22

    willrob - 25 June 2009 01:07 PM

    I remember reading that the ATT exclusive contract for the iPhone was to last for five years. Has this situation changed? If not, why the rumors of Verizon stepping in?

    The contract was never public and I’m sure it is subject to future negotiations on subsidy rates ect.  But even if it’s a five year contract we are on year 3 and with Verizon set to roll out LTE in 2010, that technology may not be included on the exclusive.  It seems like ATT has an exclusive for the new 3GS so I wouldn’t think that Verizon would have an Iphone before July 2010 at the earliest.

         
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    Posted: 25 June 2009 05:37 PM #23

    Palm up 10% in AH trading after reporting a loss that was “not as bad as expected”.  rolleyes

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  • Posted: 25 June 2009 06:11 PM #24

    Is anyone following this Palm report?  The first headline was that Palm crushed revenue estimates of 85 million and posted 113 million. The problem is the 113 number is NON-GAAP! and the estimates were clearly in gaap.  Same thing with the EPS number that everyone is using as a headline, the 40 cent loss.  That is also non-gaap.  The real loss was 78 cents or a bigger loss than estimates.  I do not understand how people are so confused by it.  The only good thing I heard is that an RBC analyst is expecting 4 million units in 2010.  That made me laugh.

         
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    Posted: 25 June 2009 06:52 PM #25

    It surely is irony.  A company can lose lots of money and people bid up the stock based on the prospects, but a company in the same business hits a homerun and gets no price action.  I would love to be on the Palm stock trade but personally I think it is too late.  Palm will be lucky to sell 4M pre in the next year but the stock goes on a rocket ride.  I would have tight trailing stops.  Good luck to all grin

         
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    Posted: 25 June 2009 06:58 PM #26

    pats - 25 June 2009 09:52 PM

    It surely is irony.  A company can lose lots of money and people bid up the stock based on the prospects, but a company in the same business hits a homerun and gets no price action.  I would love to be on the Palm stock trade but personally I think it is too late.  Palm will be lucky to sell 4M pre in the next year but the stock goes on a rocket ride.  I would have tight trailing stops.  Good luck to all grin

    Too true.  AAPL sells 1M iPhones in a weekend, 100% above most estimates and the stock goes down from $140 to $133 in 2 days. Ugh.

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    Posted: 25 June 2009 07:04 PM #27

    pats - 25 June 2009 09:52 PM

    It surely is irony.  A company can lose lots of money and people bid up the stock based on the prospects, but a company in the same business hits a homerun and gets no price action.  I would love to be on the Palm stock trade but personally I think it is too late.  Palm will be lucky to sell 4M pre in the next year but the stock goes on a rocket ride.  I would have tight trailing stops.  Good luck to all grin

    I believed in the Pre, it is THE alternative to the iPhone and I have used one { bought for a nephew who is a keyboard maven } enough to know the operating system makes Palm a winner, and DEFINITELY a candidate for a takeover bid.

    Got stopped out sequentially staggered layers on 3k shrs long with a nice profit over the last 10 days, kept 700 long. With Jan 10’s calls too.

    All I have to say is, find a company bleeding red ink, that may not go bankrupt after all. And dive in.

    Avoid proven winners.

    { or write covered calls, and let the other guy worry }

    [ Edited: 25 June 2009 07:07 PM by TanToday ]

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    “Even in the worst of times, someone turns a profit. . ” —#162 Ferengi: Rules of Acquisition

         
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    Posted: 25 June 2009 07:38 PM #28

    Well done, TanToday.  May I know which ‘may not bankrupt’ stocks are you eyeing?

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    Posted: 25 June 2009 08:22 PM #29

    Mace - 25 June 2009 10:38 PM

    Well done, TanToday.  May I know which ‘may not bankrupt’ stocks are you eyeing?

    I took an option play on Motorola, they are tying to do the PALM don’t die but stagger on thing, and with the attention “Smart Phones” are getting, their Android version may give them some chance of living on. So I got a couple grand of Jan 7.5’s. You gotta figure, if this sukah pops $2 that is a 30% increase from the $6.50 close today. For APPLE to get that kind of action, we need a $50 move. So I took a “Lotto Ticket” if it goes, I win, if it doesn’t, it was chump change.

    And if you want my thoughts on where the action goes next, I’m calling Agriculture products.  Banks ain’t makin no loans to nobody. Farmers need a LOT of money, up front annually to get the crops in the ground, that was crippled this year. And right now, there is a drought in manyof the growing areas. So, seed companies, and chinese farming concerns look promising.

    And I still have my CHINA PIG FARM, FEED, it was hammered, even though they are doing great, bring world class farming to a backwards industry. Like a man with one eye in the land of the blind.

    And the Insurance companies, wont’ all go under, they are long term banks, with VERY long term depositors, they got hammered, they will come back. Principal Financial is one to look over.

    Now don’t get me wrong, I got hammered HARD from last summer to March, but I’ve beat all the indexes since then, some by wide margins. My philosophy is, If I like it enough to buy it, I should like it enough to buy more once the insanity of the Mr Market becomes less so.

    But I have a new respect now for “Trailing Stops.”

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    “Even in the worst of times, someone turns a profit. . ” —#162 Ferengi: Rules of Acquisition

         
  • Posted: 25 June 2009 08:44 PM #30

    I’d just love to see some of these analyst’s models that are justifying valuations of $15-20 for PALM.  Some quick math…IF they hit 4 million phones, assume $500 a phone = 2,000 million in revenue.  25% gross profits(500mil) subtract out this year’s marketing(175mil), R&D(175 mil), SG&A(55mil) and that leaves them with 95 million in profits before taxes, depreciation, etc.  So under my best case I could see them making somewhere around 50 million.  The book value is -425 million and declining, so how do you value this company at 2-3 billion dollars? There are only so many cell phone users, you cant expect Palm to grow to much more than 4 million units a year even in the future.