iPhone v. Pre (Revisited)

  • Posted: 08 July 2009 12:50 PM #46

    Apple to pass Nokia in smartphone share by 2013

         
  • Posted: 09 July 2009 12:59 AM #47

    pats - 08 July 2009 03:44 PM

    Some recent sales speculation via Barrons

    JNK Securities, a New York based research boutique, hired wireless consultant iGR to survey Sprint stores each week since the phone launched. In a report to clients yesterday, JNK said the checks found that zero of 50 stores surveyed were sold out of the phone. That compares to 8% of stores sold out last week, 28% the week before that, and 38% in the first week of sale.
    JNK also said that none of the stores who were willing to discuss sales sold more than 30 units in the latest week. In week 3,  the upper ceiling on sales was 75 in some stores. The week before that, 20% of stores reporting selling about 100 units. ?Sales have slowed significantly, which was pointed out by a couple of stores contacted,? the JNK report says. The survey found that 40% of stores had sold less than 10 units in the latest week, while 33% sold 10-20 and 16% sold 20-30.
    One novel pastime for data-deprived Palm Pre watchers is to track the number of downloads of the most popular applications from the Palm App Catalog, which is the company?s answer to the Apple (AAPL) App Store. Apparently, when you access the store, you can see how many times a given application has been downloaded. By checking the totals at regular intervals, and doing some basic math, you can get a sense of the trends. If sales of the phones were steady or rising, you would think downloads would be going in the same direction. But one investor who has been tracking the data finds that daily downloads of two highly popular apps - Accuweather and Pandora - have been trending steadily lower for the last few weeks.
    Research boutique JRPG estimates that Sprint sold 84,000 Pre units over the launch weekend, with the number growing by month end to 200,000-250,000. But the research firm contends that the number of units sold weekly is likely to ?trail off considerably as the newness wears off.? JRPG says industry contacts believe 30% of launch-weekend customers were porting numbers to Sprint, defecting from other carriers. But they say the number of new Sprint customers fell to 20-23% in the following two weeks, and now is down to around 14%. The problem with that trend, JRPG analyst David Eller writes, is that in the absence of an ability to draw new customers to the carrier, the Pre will be considered a good phone, but not one with a significant competitive edge over the iPhone or the BlackBerry Storm.
    JRPG also contends that the company should ?take advantage of its temporary aura,? and raise another $100 million in an equity offering.
    Meanwhle, in another note this week, JRPG analyst Gerard Hallaren contends that Sprint is likely to sell 1 million to 1.2 million Palm Pre units this year. But he writes that JRPG believes that in order to maintain exclusivity for another six months, Sprint would have to sell 1.6 million units by year end. ?Absent a serious price cut, we think that is unlikely,? he writes. Hallaren also points out that sales below 1.6 million would also mean coming in well below Street expectations.

    I’m quoting all of the above only to move the content to the new page.

    Palm needs a super-sized hit. While the Pre had an impressive debut, it apparently doesn’t have star staying power. However, it may be successful at slowing the rate of defections from Sprint to both Apple and RIM.

    I still see Palm as an acquisition candidate. To compete earnestly and successfully in the smart phone market it will need more webOS devices and a $99 subsidized Pre product. I really don’t think Palm and Sprint saw the price reduction on the 3G iPhone coming.

         
  • Posted: 09 July 2009 01:05 AM #48

    willrob - 08 July 2009 03:50 PM

    Apple to pass Nokia in smartphone share by 2013

    The article’s title is misleading. The content suggests Apple will match (and then surpass) Nokia’s global smartphone share sometime in 2011.

         
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    Posted: 15 July 2009 03:31 PM #49

    It looks very much like the new iTunes upgrade stops the Pre from syncing.

    Well that was fun while it lasted…

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  • Posted: 15 July 2009 03:35 PM #50

    tongue laugh

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    Steph :apple:
    Id quot circumiret, circumveniat

         
  • Posted: 15 July 2009 03:39 PM #51

    wheeles - 15 July 2009 06:31 PM

    It looks very much like the new iTunes upgrade stops the Pre from syncing.

    Well that was fun while it lasted…

    And so it should. It is one thing letting iTunes synch your phone with your music library - quite a few can and do with official help from Apple. Quite another to use a back door loophole to cheat it and then ADD INSULT TO INJURY by advertising the fact.

    I think the attitude Palm are taking with the Pre (this kind of shit and the adverts with a half eaten apple) is going to come back to bite them soon.

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  • Posted: 16 July 2009 05:50 AM #52

    The Palm sync worked by having the Pre identify itself literally as an Apple manufactured USB device. Apple had to block this, even if they plan to offer an official way for third party devices to sync. If Palm find a way around it again, I would have thought Apple will sek a legal injuction against Palm effectively passing off counterfeit iPods via USB!

         
  • Posted: 16 July 2009 03:26 PM #53

    sleepytoo - 16 July 2009 08:50 AM

    The Palm sync worked by having the Pre identify itself literally as an Apple manufactured USB device. Apple had to block this, even if they plan to offer an official way for third party devices to sync. If Palm find a way around it again, I would have thought Apple will sek a legal injuction against Palm effectively passing off counterfeit iPods via USB!

    Yes.  And I imagine the letter notifying Palm’s counsel of such was conveyed prior to the plug being pulled.

         
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    Posted: 16 July 2009 03:47 PM #54

    Maybe Apple can offer a “Certified for Itunes” program and become the music server for the world.  :-D I think it is foolish on Palm’s part to user Apple’s commercial software and repurpose for the Pre without Apple permission.  As far as the end user there are plenty of workarounds just not as convenient as the Itunes synch.

         
  • Posted: 21 July 2009 12:41 AM #55

    If this report proves accurate it might be time to warm up the fat lady.

    http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2009/07/20/palm-report-sees-pre-defects-hitting-earnings/

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  • Posted: 21 July 2009 10:30 AM #56

    If Blackberry can have an OS Mac app for syncing (which it announced yesterday), what stops the Pre from doing this?

         
  • Posted: 21 July 2009 10:39 AM #57

    willrob - 21 July 2009 01:30 PM

    If Blackberry can have an OS Mac app for syncing (which it announced yesterday), what stops the Pre from doing this?

    Laziness on Palms part - they thought that stealing and cheating with iTunes would be the way to go -  I think they were hoping that Apple sealing it off would cause outrage. I think people have actually clocked that it was Palm that was being the bad boy in this case.

    The Palm adverts at the moment are really going for iPhone - I personally think they are attacking the wrong target as you aren’t going to get many people who REALLY want an iPhone switching to the Pre.

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    Posted: 22 July 2009 12:51 PM #58

    Probably Not The Palm Pre Chart Roger McNamee Wants To See

    A week from tomorrow is the big day for McNamee?s prediction. How?s it looking? Not so hot. Okay, awful.

    Yes, it?s still early in the Palm Pre?s life. And yes, there is plenty of room in the rapidly expanding mobile universe for more than one device. But it was McNamee who specifically threw down this gauntlet against the iPhone. And that makes charts like the one below, that much more amusing.

         
  • Posted: 29 July 2009 02:34 PM #59

    Sprint CEO Dan Hesse in today’s conference call:

    ?I don?t want you to think there?s no impact from the iPhone.  It?s a successful device, but we?ve mitigated the impact with a strong device line-up,?


    He also confirmed a report which I posted a couple of weeks ago stating that most of the Pre sales are to existing Sprint customers.

         
  • Posted: 29 July 2009 03:45 PM #60

    capablanca - 29 July 2009 05:34 PM

    Sprint CEO Dan Hesse in today’s conference call:

    ?I don?t want you to think there?s no impact from the iPhone.  It?s a successful device, but we?ve mitigated the impact with a strong device line-up,?


    He also confirmed a report which I posted a couple of weeks ago stating that most of the Pre sales are to existing Sprint customers.

    It may slow the pace of migration to the iPhone, but I don’t think the Pre will create a wave of new customers for Sprint.