Apple 3rd Qtr

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    Posted: 30 June 2009 08:06 PM

    It’s been dead on the board lately and the 3rd quarter just ended so I’ll get the party started.

      Apple

    Apple plans to conduct a conference call to discuss financial results of its third fiscal quarter on Tuesday, July 21, 2009 at 2:00 p.m. PDT. A link to the conference call webcast will be provided at a later date.

    My Estimates

    Revenue

    Mac         3.445
    Ipod         1.485
    Peripheral   .480
    Software     .551
    Itunes       1.023
    iphone       1.520

    Total       8.505

    GM   34%
    EPS   1.26 on 904M Shares

    Units
    Desktop   1M
    Laptop     1.65M
    Ipod       9.9M
    Iphone     4.5M

         
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    Posted: 01 July 2009 12:39 AM #1

    Whisper eps is $1.14.  Apple expects $0.95 to $1.00.  So your $1.26 is optimistic.

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    Posted: 01 July 2009 12:55 PM #2

    I am waiting for Deagol’s unit count analysis before I come out with my estimates. My non-GAAP of $2.87 seems somewhat wildly optimistic. It is mostly based on an iPhone ARPU of $878.

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    Tightwad.

         
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    Posted: 01 July 2009 01:22 PM #3

    Deagol was having trouble with the orders because Apple changed the system he requested help
    From his Blog

    Please help: Apple Online Store changes

    So, over the last week of April the Apple Online Stores (both US and Europe) have changed the way shopping carts and/or web orders get assigned a unique id. One thing I’ve determined is that a saved shopping cart will no longer use up a W# (they now have a SC#) which was the way I used to track them. Because the exclusion of saved carts from the sequence will have an effect on the order rate, I need to reestablish a new baseline for the trend, and would appreciate anyone sharing their recent order number/date/time info and, if you had any saved carts, the new SC# and date.

    From this point on I will most likely rely on your voluntary contributions of web order numbers, unless a reliable relationship can be established between the SC# and the W# (very unlikely). I thank you all in advance for any and all contributions, and I hope this doesn’t throw a huge monkey wrench in my model.


    As far as your ASP for the Iphone I think it is high.  The subsidy is more likely in the 300-400 range. I was using 549 ASP and 247 BOM.  I have not adjusted yet for the 3G at 99 but that will have minor impact this quarter.

         
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    Posted: 01 July 2009 01:32 PM #4

    pats - 01 July 2009 04:22 PM

    Deagol was having trouble with the orders because Apple changed the system he requested help
    From his Blog

    Please help: Apple Online Store changes


    As far as your ASP for the Iphone I think it is high.  The subsidy is more likely in the 300-400 range. I was using 549 ASP and 247 BOM.  I have not adjusted yet for the 3G at 99 but that will have minor impact this quarter.

    Pity that Apple has screwed with his model. I guess we will have to wait for a bit until he can re-establish a link.

    As for iPhone ARPU, in Italy without contract the 3G goes for $700 and the 3GS 32GB for $980. I think these are comparable to the overall revenue to Apple for cell-phones sold with a contract.

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    Posted: 01 July 2009 02:13 PM #5

    artman1033 - 01 July 2009 04:37 PM
    awcabot - 01 July 2009 04:32 PM

    As for iPhone ARPU, in Italy without contract the 3G goes for $700 and the 3GS 32GB for $980. I think these are comparable to the overall revenue to Apple for cell-phones sold with a contract.

    I agree with pats. Alex, perhaps there is some kind of “tax” or fee added to make the price so high in Italy.

    True, I forgot that VAT (20%) is included in the retail price. This would bring the revenue to Apple, or the seller, to $583 and $817. Still, the range is considerably higher than what pats has estimated.

    The average I have calculated, from the last report, compares the GAAP revenue with the non GAAP revenue.

    GAAP:  $8,163
    of which
    CPU
    :   $2,945
    iPod
    :  $1,665
    Music
    : $1,049
    P
    &H      $358
    Soft
    .:   $625
    Total
    :  $5706 (NBexcludes iPhone revenue)
    non GAAP revenue
           $
    9,056
    Diff
    .: $3,350 

    The $3,350 should be all deferred revenues that were accounted for not in the GAAP results. Presumably the Apple TV is a small portion of the deferred revenue stream that it can be ignored (not that I have much choice…). Therefore $3,350M?3,793,000 units gives $883.
    As I stated, the calculation does not separate the AppleTV from the iPhone, but since I believe the contribution of the AppleTV is small, I believe my estimate to be accurate within a ?10%

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    Posted: 01 July 2009 02:36 PM #6

    In the US when ATT was offering no contract the price was $599 8GB and $699 16GB.  I would assume ATT would mark up to retail from wholesale price Apple charges resellers for each sale that means the wholesale cost to ATT would be less then what Apple sells the phone for at their location.  My average is maybe a little low but I think your 800+ number is in error.

         
  • Posted: 03 July 2009 01:53 AM #7

    Pats, I will be very happy if your 2.65mm Mac units is achieved.

    My estimate is at 2.52mm, and even that would be a fine performance in the current environment.  I will revise once more around the 15th.

         
  • Posted: 03 July 2009 02:11 PM #8

    capablanca - 03 July 2009 04:53 AM

    Pats, I will be very happy if your 2.65mm Mac units is achieved.

    My estimate is at 2.52mm, and even that would be a fine performance in the current environment.  I will revise once more around the 15th.

    Agreed.

    Anything north of last’s years results indicates Apple is growing faster than the market and will lead to an increase in market share. The back-to-school promotion and the product refresh should be a boon for June sales.

         
  • Posted: 07 July 2009 03:38 PM #9

    From AppleInsider.  Discusses shortages of 13” MacBook Pro, but also quotes Munster on 3Q projections.  He is at 2.2mm Macs and 5mm iPhones (for those who don’t have time for the whole thing).

         
  • Posted: 07 July 2009 11:10 PM #10

    In Canada, Rogers “device only” pre-tax prices are:

    32GB 3GS - $780Cdn = $672
    16GB 3GS - $680Cdn = $586
    8GB 3G - $580Cdn = $500


    1 US$ = 1.16 Cdn

    How much a markup would you expect Rogers to add?

    Has anyone heard anything on the impact of the 3G at $99? The predictions were very high given the elasticity expectations, but everything I’m reading is focussing on the 3GS sales. I’d really like to get a feel on mix.

         
  • Posted: 07 July 2009 11:55 PM #11

    capablanca - 07 July 2009 06:38 PM

    From AppleInsider.  Discusses shortages of 13” MacBook Pro, but also quotes Munster on 3Q projections.  He is at 2.2mm Macs and 5mm iPhones (for those who don’t have time for the whole thing).

    I don’t understand how GM comes up with 2.2 million Mac units. Considering the recent laptop refresh, the popular back-to-school promotion and slight drawdown of channel inventory in the prior quarter, I can’t imagine how he estimates 2.2 million units for the June quarter.

         
  • Posted: 08 July 2009 02:23 AM #12

    DawnTreader - 08 July 2009 02:55 AM
    capablanca - 07 July 2009 06:38 PM

    From AppleInsider.  Discusses shortages of 13” MacBook Pro, but also quotes Munster on 3Q projections.  He is at 2.2mm Macs and 5mm iPhones (for those who don’t have time for the whole thing).

    I don’t understand how GM comes up with 2.2 million Mac units. Considering the recent laptop refresh, the popular back-to-school promotion and slight drawdown of channel inventory in the prior quarter, I can’t imagine how he estimates 2.2 million units for the June quarter.

    Of late he’s been using darts!  He missed opening weekend iPhone estimates even with a last minute correction that employed staff surveying a few sales locations.  He didn’t miss it by a small amount either.  It seems to me that there are just too many points of sale, here and internationally for anyone outside of Apple to be reliable.  I can’t figure out how Apple does it to be honest.

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    I don’t mind being wrong…,I just hate being wrong so FAST!

         
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    Posted: 12 July 2009 08:08 PM #13

    pats estimated Apple would sell 4.5 mil iPhones.  Who has higher estimate?  My gut feel is Apple would sell more.

    Btw, whisper eps is now $1.30.  Consensus is $1.14.  Apple expects $0.95 to $1.00.

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    Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.  - Steve Jobs