Please see PED’s latest column.

IIRC the statements during the last quarterly conference call, Apple execs stated sell through was flat year-over-year though reported unit sales were down. With a recent laptop refresh and appropriate channel fill of new models, it’s possible we could see a slight YOY gain in unit sales for the quarter. At worst unit sales YOY may be down slightly but an impressive sequential gain in a very challenging operating environment. Match that with impressive uptake of the new 3GS iPhone and we could have a pleasant quarter all things considered.

The source is Huberty. I wouldn’t trust her any further than I could throw her.

The funny thing is Huberty optimism is not reflected in her unit forecast.  Last FY Apple sold 2496 units.  If we look at the NPD data which is US only.  We had sales down 2% in April and 3% in May.  If we assume a linear distribution of sales, last year would look like 832K, 832K, 832K and this year based on NPD data 815K, 807K, 1040K = 2662K.  As everyone knows, Apple does not provide monthly breakout but I would assume that sales are skewed toward June in both years because of the back to school promo with a free Ipod also NPD does not include overseas sales which are a large portion of sales and recently done much better then US sales.

wheeles - 02 July 2009 06:39 AM

I could throw her.

Now there’s a pleasing image.

Jose

I’m less concerned about the actual unit forecast and more concerned with the observed trend. Apple has margin to burn and the free iPod touch promotion is clearly a popular one. Should Apple achieve static YOY sales (or better) the company will outperform the industry for the quarter and it will bode well for Apple’s position as it heads into the Windows 7 media storm.