willrob - 08 July 2009 02:59 PM

“They” let the pressure off and the DOW and Naz are now positive.

As it has in the past, the broader market will follow on the heels of the financial sector. Too many people are afraid to buy the fear for fun and profit unaware that the reason the financials are taking a dip is because of arbitrage between preferred and common. Too readily people are accepting the party line that banks have gazillions of write-downs yet to take unaware that those write downs are slowly adjusting upward.

For those reading along you may have noticed that I’ve flipped from a momentum trade to the countertrend trade because all trends come to an end when they bend and the trend is your friend except at the ends. and so I’m back to buying the fear building out my core holdings with the overarching economic cycle in mind.

Eric Landstrom - 08 July 2009 01:35 PM

Purchased BAC again. 

Ooh la la!

You know over the past 10 months I’ve watched people get knocked out of the market, lose interest, and lose their jobs but what a sad day it is that the once mighty AFB has a registered user of one person online while the market is open. 

Even so, all downward trends come to an end and bend. May all of your fortunes turn around. 

I visit every day.  I have nothing of value to add so I don’t post much.  Apperciate all the posters still sharing their views though.

I also check everyday, I love this place and the insight of the people here. I only post occasionally.

Do we go higher or lower from here on SPX?  AAPL may get a boost from retail updraft. Hope to 140.  Any thoughts?

..same here.

PS: Thanks Eric for response yesterday!

I’ve got an AFB window open almost continuously throughout the workday, logged in to boot.  I’m not sure why my account didn’t show up in those stats. 

NOOP - 08 July 2009 03:53 PM

Do we go higher or lower from here on SPX?  AAPL may get a boost from retail updraft. Hope to 140.  Any thoughts?

AA’s report this afternoon (5 pm) will give a clue. Good earnings won’t be all that necessary, since expectations are low. But guidance, now more than ever, is going to be gone over with a TV forensic detective’s zeal.

AA did well, or so the market judges. Up 6.7% AH. Sees the second half of the year as improving, at least in their line of work. If only some computer manufacturer used aluminum in their laptops….

Mr L thank you for the arb answer.  It appears to makes sense if your long term and short term if you can make money by the 17th.

Guess we are going up in the morning Mr Robinson as AA beat expectations?  Maybe GS will force a short squeeze out of this consolidation pattern (H&S).

willrob - 08 July 2009 04:08 PM

AA did well, or so the market judges.

Woo hoo! Hang out the flags, AA didn’t lose quite as much as expected.

<sarcasm off>

Eric-

There is no arbitrage between preferred and common.  There is DILUTION.  Common is slowly getting shafted over time.

If the fact that everything from housing to oil prices to interest rates has been 100% manipulated by Goldman et al isn’t enough to get you to NOT BUY financials in protest, then maybe this will:

http://market-ticker.org/archives/1192-FLASH-Goldman-Code-Theft-BOMBSHELL.html

At the end of the day - GREED is BAD.  Ask yourselves one simple little question - why on earth would ANYONE want to lock in a 3.3% interest rate over 10 yrs ($TNX)?  When you figure that out, you will figure out where things are headed.

Eric Landstrom - 08 July 2009 01:35 PM

Purchased BAC again. 

Ooh la la!

You know over the past 10 months I’ve watched people get knocked out of the market, lose interest, and lose their jobs but what a sad day it is that the once mighty AFB has a registered user of one person online while the market is open. 

Even so, all downward trends come to an end and bend. May all of your fortunes turn around. 

There is something wrong with their stats…

Mayor Quimby - 08 July 2009 05:55 PM

Eric-

There is no arbitrage between preferred and common.  There is DILUTION.  Common is slowly getting shafted over time.

If the fact that everything from housing to oil prices to interest rates has been 100% manipulated by Goldman et al isn’t enough to get you to NOT BUY financials in protest, then maybe this will:

http://market-ticker.org/archives/1192-FLASH-Goldman-Code-Theft-BOMBSHELL.html

At the end of the day - GREED is BAD.  Ask yourselves one simple little question - why on earth would ANYONE want to lock in a 3.3% interest rate over 10 yrs ($TNX)?  When you figure that out, you will figure out where things are headed.

Mike, I love you pushing back and honestly, I miss our Skype conversations but step back and look around: Moralizing doesn’t make returns because money is amoral. It doesn’t care about moralisms. You see the game we play, your friends are pros, you understand the rules and you keep responding as though you’re reading Forbes—too late to matter.

Build out some positions and don’t be like everybody else: too afraid to trade.

At the end of the day - GREED is BAD.

Oh no, it isn’;t.

Thursday

R4         147.42
  midpoint   145.61
R3       143.80
  midpoint   141.99
R2       140.18
  midpoint   139.44
R1       138.70
  midpoint   137.63
PP       136.56
  midpoint   135.82
S1       135.08
  midpoint   134.01
S2       132.94
  midpoint   131.13
S3       129.32
  midpoint   127.51
S4       125.70