Mace - 09 July 2009 11:21 AM

omacvi - 09 July 2009 10:21 AM

... I am patiently waiting for mid 120 to get back in.  I am in about 30%.  We are slowly getting there, but unsure of timing or extent of the future drop ...

I would cut the other 30% loose if AAPL drops to mid $120.  We’ve different read.  This low means a possible retest of $80.  Any decline to below $130 is a sign that you should prepare to get out entirely.

I DISAGREE!

Unless the total market collapses in the next 13 days, AAPL should trend to $140-150 by earnings. Apple is doing nothing wrong.

On the other hand, the world is going to hell in a hand basket.

Good old GS, might be getting their comeuppance. With the recent article in RS, their “odd” computer trading issues, their possible losses on oil; the FEDS might be onto them.

artman1033 - 09 July 2009 11:31 AM

Good old GS, might be getting their comeuppance. With the recent article in RS, their “odd” computer trading issues, their possible losses on oil; the FEDS might be onto them.

Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of scum. 

I base my analysis on the S&P heading to 720 before going back up again or possibly further down. We will see.  Not being on margin I don’t cry over paper losses or lost profits since the market is so unperdictable.  I do believe that aapl could correct to 125 before going back up to 150.  So I am trying to make some quick money, otherwise we will be in pain for the next 3 years.  I am young enough that I will still see aapl at 300 and then 1000 in the next 10 years.

artman1033

Which part you disagree with?  Read your comment but I see no disagreement.
Edit2: On the contrary, my thought is similar to yours.

omacvi,

I don’t think AAPL would rebounce from $125 to $150.  If it breaks below $130, it won’t rebounce till it hits $80.  Is either rebounce from $130 or $80 or $50 if $80 breaks.
Edit:  My bet is it won’t break below $132.88.

Mace,

I am following those who predict that we will see a correction in the market that will bring us about 6% lower from today.  So if that happens that is why I think we can see aapl in the mid 125.

At that point if we stop dropping and start to recover and the S&P goes above 930 then we can see aapl make its way to 150.  It all depends on the market and how they react to earnings in the next three weeks.

volume today was very low, especially compared to yesterday.  aapl was much stronger then the market yesterday and today it caught up to the market.

The market controls aapl not what aapl reports and does.  That could happen but it may only account for 10% corrections on big news.

I think the point Mace was making was IF AAPL were to revist 125, it would be on its way to 85. It would be November 2008 all over again. Which of course means the S&P wouldn’t be in the 900s.

Mace - 09 July 2009 12:50 PM

My bet is it won’t break below $132.88.

I’m currently reviewing the down channel I have AAPL in (it’s upper wall kept AAPL from staying with the market today). The bottom of it for tomorrow is approximately that figure. If AAPL drops to the 50% line of that channel then the low will occur between 134 and 135.

EDIT: For those that are interested, I’ve been playing with Jing, and here’s a capture I just took. I notice that there is the makings of an inverted head and shoulders there as well, so a strong push above 138 could take us to 142, but I am inclined to believe that as we head into OE week, next week, the likely direction for tomorrow is down. Of course, nothing’s guaranteed, so make of it what you will.

Significance of $132.88 (and 50-day MA) is obvious from this daily chart.

delete

Friday

R4         142.92
  midpoint   141.89
R3       140.86
  midpoint   139.83
R2       138.80
  midpoint   138.17
R1       137.54
  midpoint   137.14
PP       136.74
  midpoint   136.11
S1       135.48
  midpoint   135.08
S2       134.68
  midpoint   133.65
S3       132.62
  midpoint   131.59
S4       130.56

So far aapl is looking strong against an ugly tape…

Another day, another BS move intended to panic the weak hands. I had wondered if we would get a sudden upward move out of nowhere to give the put sellers a chance to flatten their positions. I really am beginning to think that AAPL has become untradable apart from scalping during the middle of the day.

Did we get an accompanying analyst note to lend a shred of credibility to this latest manipulation?

EDIT: I see that the SPY has now fallen like a rock after that initial move. Typical.

wheeles - 10 July 2009 08:59 AM

Another day, another BS move intended to panic the weak hands. I had wondered if we would get a sudden upward move out of nowhere to give the put sellers a chance to flatten their positions. I really am beginning to think that AAPL has become untradable apart from scalping during the middle of the day.

Did we get an accompanying analyst note to lend a shred of credibility to this latest manipulation?

Your suspicion about GS turns out to be true.  It upgraded AAPL, causing a short squeeze.

Mace - 10 July 2009 09:02 AM

wheeles - 10 July 2009 08:59 AM

Did we get an accompanying analyst note to lend a shred of credibility to this latest manipulation?

Your suspicion about GS turns out to be true.  It upgraded AAPL, causing a short squeeze.

****ing ****s.

EDIT: Any idea when it came out? I saw a bit of a spike in the PM around 8.45 ET.

EDIT2: Close prediction 136.31.

wheeles - 10 July 2009 09:06 AM

Mace - 10 July 2009 09:02 AM

wheeles - 10 July 2009 08:59 AM

Did we get an accompanying analyst note to lend a shred of credibility to this latest manipulation?

Your suspicion about GS turns out to be true.  It upgraded AAPL, causing a short squeeze.

****ing ****s.

EDIT: Any idea when it came out? I saw a bit of a spike in the PM around 8.45 ET.

EDIT2: Close prediction 136.31.

Hmmm, seems like the market wants to rally even in face of a bad consumer sentiment number. I think aapl closes closer to 140.

Edit- Of course the market will not turn green until the Geithner grilling is done for the day.