AAPL Intraday Updates - Quarterly Earnings Edition (Archive)

  • Posted: 18 July 2009 06:42 PM

    I’m starting the new intraday topic on Saturday instead of Sunday due to the AAPL earnings report due Tuesday. What should we expect for AAPL in Monday and Tuesday trading?

    [ Edited: 22 July 2009 12:01 AM by DawnTreader ]      
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    Posted: 18 July 2009 07:45 PM #1

    DawnTreader - 18 July 2009 09:42 PM

    I’m starting the new intraday topic on Saturday instead of Sunday due to the AAPL earnings report due Tuesday. What should we expect for AAPL in Monday and Tuesday trading?

    They’ll beat as usual.

    If they don’t, God help the share price because every trader on the street will pile on and short AAPL. Since I’ve accidently accumulated AAPL by exercising calls (I’m a believer in Apple long term but trade where the money is at), perhaps I’ll sell them November puts instead of calls.  :-D

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  • Posted: 18 July 2009 09:21 PM #2

    Expectations are high on the heels of last week’s run up. I don’t know how to handicap the market’s response to earnings, but I expect a thunderous market beat and perhaps others are expecting that outcome as well. Is the share price being set-up for a “sell on the news” market response?

         
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    Posted: 19 July 2009 12:06 AM #3

    DawnTreader - 19 July 2009 12:21 AM

    Expectations are high on the heels of last week’s run up. I don’t know how to handicap the market’s response to earnings, but I expect a thunderous market beat and perhaps others are expecting that outcome as well. Is the share price being set-up for a “sell on the news” market response?

    I think the earnings will be a mixed bag.  Slightly positive for the Mac lineup and slightly negative for the Ipod great Iphone sales which will have little impact on the current quarter because of deferred revenue.  Software line and Music lines should show decent growth.  I’ll be looking at the GM.  The Sept Qtr on the other hand holds lots of excitement.  We finally have 2 full years of Iphone sales so the bow wave of deferred revenue will make all the current estimates look a little light.  We have to remember that Apple has prepaid all the R&D and advertising for the Iphone line.  Now that we have a full two years of revenue we should see the other side of this prepay starting with the Sep qtr.  If we get a China launch or the new tablet both are additive to all the current estimates so any new announcements could cause the stock to spike as it should.  The guidance for next quarter will drive the price IMO.  If Apple raises guidance then all the analysts will follow suit otherwise we will see sell on the news.

         
  • Posted: 19 July 2009 09:07 AM #4

    Apple will be one of the few large cap companies to show top line revenue growth. Turley Miller who lately has the best track record for predicting earnings thinks Apple will hold margins this past qtr at 36.5 percent. If he is right that will lift the stock Wednesday. I too am looking forward to fourth qtr as blowout of blowouts. What I think will do it for the holiday quarter.  If, as rumoured, Apple adds a camera to the iPod Touch it will be record sales of these devices whilst the street feels these are eol’d.

         
  • Posted: 19 July 2009 11:46 AM #5

    The guidance is the only thing that can substantially move AAPL up or down Wednesday.

    I suffer no illusions that Apple will change its policy of guiding low, but Q4 may be turning out so good that even after Apple’s traditional discount, the guidance will still be in the 1.20s, which would move the stock much higher.

         
  • Posted: 20 July 2009 01:39 AM #6

    Seems to me there’s an even chance of a China announcement on the earnings call, perhaps by SJ himself.

         
  • Posted: 20 July 2009 01:42 AM #7

    Monday

    R4         163.93
      midpoint   161.68
    R3       159.43
      midpoint   157.18
    R2       154.93
      midpoint   154.14
    R1       153.34
      midpoint   151.89
    PP       150.43
      midpoint   149.64
    S1       148.84
      midpoint   147.39
    S2       145.93
      midpoint   143.68
    S3       141.43
      midpoint   139.18
    S4       136.93

         
  • Posted: 20 July 2009 02:05 AM #8

    Mercel - 20 July 2009 04:39 AM

    Seems to me there’s an even chance of a China announcement on the earnings call, perhaps by SJ himself.

    I don’t think Apple would use the conference call for a major announcement of that kind. Announcement or no announcement by Tuesday, the prospects of a China deal may be a question from one of the analysts. However, I suspect Apple will not make a China announcement ahead of the call, saving that news (should a deal be imminent) for a separate press announcement. Should a China announcement be made Monday or Tuesday, it would obfuscate what should be and impressive quarter, economic conditions considered.

         
  • Posted: 20 July 2009 03:12 AM #9

    DawnTreader - 20 July 2009 05:05 AM
    Mercel - 20 July 2009 04:39 AM

    Seems to me there’s an even chance of a China announcement on the earnings call, perhaps by SJ himself.

    I don’t think Apple would use the conference call for a major announcement of that kind. Announcement or no announcement by Tuesday, the prospects of a China deal may be a question from one of the analysts. However, I suspect Apple will not make a China announcement ahead of the call, saving that news (should a deal be imminent) for a separate press announcement. Should a China announcement be made Monday or Tuesday, it would obfuscate what should be and impressive quarter, economic conditions considered.

    What’s your definition of an impressive quarter?  They’ll beat the street, but what is the minimum EPS # Apple must hit to avoid a sell off Wednesday?  Anyone see Turley Miller’s EPS # for Q3 09?

         
  • Posted: 20 July 2009 05:27 AM #10

    Miller has been conspicuously absent.

         
  • Posted: 20 July 2009 09:48 AM #11

    The Pacific exchanges are all green, Europe is all green, futures are green, PM AAPL is up over $1.50. Let’s see what washington can say or do to screw this up.

         
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    Posted: 20 July 2009 10:03 AM #12

    PED has the estimates including Turley
    Fortune Apple 2.0

    Below: The published estimates of nearly a dozen leading professional analysts and three closely-watched amateurs. To find out who was closest to the mark, tune in here Tuesday at 5 p.m. EDT (2 p.m. PDT) for our live coverage of Apple?s conference call with analysts.

         
  • Posted: 20 July 2009 10:27 AM #13

    pats - 20 July 2009 01:03 PM

    PED has the estimates including Turley
    Fortune Apple 2.0

    Below: The published estimates of nearly a dozen leading professional analysts and three closely-watched amateurs. To find out who was closest to the mark, tune in here Tuesday at 5 p.m. EDT (2 p.m. PDT) for our live coverage of Apple?s conference call with analysts.

    Thanks for this.  It’s Interesting to note that Q3 08 > Q2 08 by 3 cents.  Q3 09 was $1.33.  Yet, the highest EPS # on the list is $1.35, even with the additional of growth in iPhone EPS from one quarter to the next in 2009 (much bigger jump in 2009 than what we saw from Q2 08 to Q3 08).  I’m staying with $1.35 plus,  but I defer to those with more time than I devoted to the calcs.

         
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    Posted: 20 July 2009 10:30 AM #14

    What’s most troubling is Munster’s 1.02 GAAP earnings estimate.  Quite low for such an Apple bull.

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  • Posted: 20 July 2009 10:35 AM #15

    incorrigible - 20 July 2009 01:30 PM

    What’s most troubling is Munster’s 1.02 GAAP earnings estimate.  Quite low for such an Apple bull.

    It’s more weird than troubling.  Gene M. needs a new calculator—might he pick up a HP 12c on the App Store?  I’m waiting for the platinum edition in August myself.