AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

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    Posted: 03 August 2009 01:57 PM #31

    Mace - 03 August 2009 04:45 PM

    Eric,

    Serious question?  Bond=debt.

    Sure: all bonds are debt instruments. But many people rotated out of equities into cash and bonds when the market went into free-fall. Having failed to recognize March 6th as a good low, they stayed there and continuing dining at the table woe and financial collapse unable or unwilling to draw back and consider where we are at in the economic cycle.

    At any-rate because debt instruments take time to mature, as we grind forward, money from fixed-income will be more willing to return to equity markets and this fresh money should help sustain out gradual recovery which must be led by the financials.*

    Eric Landstrom


    * Because no bull market can be sustained without the financials participating. As such, it doesn’t matter when we recover: the financials will participate and why I’m over weight in the financial sector.

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

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    Posted: 03 August 2009 02:07 PM #32

    ConMan - 03 August 2009 04:46 PM
    dc930 - 03 August 2009 04:43 PM
    ConMan - 03 August 2009 04:25 PM

    Kudos to EL for both of his amazing calls on BAC and F earlier this year. If I was out in the wilderness, I’d be following the Viking.

    I second that.  Eric’s been pumping them all year, and been spot on.  Letting it ride or taking profits?  (Or trading?)

    What % profit can the Viking Hedge Fund claim for 2009? 400%? :wink:

    We’ve almost made enough to buy a new community tooth brush for the homestead. Ever since ma used the old one to clean some mold off of the shower door, everybody has been pining for a new one.  grin

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 03 August 2009 03:07 PM #33

    Eric Landstrom - 03 August 2009 05:07 PM
    ConMan - 03 August 2009 04:46 PM
    dc930 - 03 August 2009 04:43 PM
    ConMan - 03 August 2009 04:25 PM

    Kudos to EL for both of his amazing calls on BAC and F earlier this year. If I was out in the wilderness, I’d be following the Viking.

    I second that.  Eric’s been pumping them all year, and been spot on.  Letting it ride or taking profits?  (Or trading?)

    What % profit can the Viking Hedge Fund claim for 2009? 400%? :wink:

    We’ve almost made enough to buy a new community tooth brush for the homestead. Ever since ma used the old one to clean some mold off of the shower door, everybody has been pining for a new one.  grin

    hehe tongue laugh

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    Posted: 03 August 2009 03:14 PM #34

    Seeing as we’ve been over-bought on the Daily for almost two weeks now and are hovering between 81 & 82 on the RSI and the MACD seemingly startinly to roll over…is it unreasonable to think this is getting a bit nuts in the short-term?

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    Mully

         
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    Posted: 03 August 2009 03:20 PM #35

    mbmullin - 03 August 2009 06:14 PM

    Seeing as we’ve been over-bought on the Daily for almost two weeks now and are hovering between 81 & 82 on the RSI and the MACD seemingly startinly to roll over…is it unreasonable to think this is getting a bit nuts in the short-term?

    If what you mean is that taking long positions here seems a bit risky in the short-term, then I agree. It appears as if there will be a slight correction.

    On the other hand, it has appeared that way for most of this recent run. So long as the market can unwind the oscillators like the RSI and Stochastic in the near-term (30,60 minute charts), the overbought conditions on the dailies can go on for quite a while.

    So given that, it’s usually better to go with the trend, until the trend no longer goes. There’s no perfect entry, and waiting for such can be painful.

    -ernie

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  • Posted: 03 August 2009 03:30 PM #36

    artman1033 - 03 August 2009 04:52 PM
    willrob - 03 August 2009 04:49 PM

    CNBC reports that SEC is after BAC and the price drops 50?.

    BAC was at “about” $15.31 prior to the announcement. Now at $15.24.

    Earlier this a.m. BAC was at 15.62, but when the news hit it was at 15.53 and dropped to 14.96 before bouncing. Stops must have triggered, since many BAC traders never trust the stock to rally and are ready to leap to the shore if they think they see ice bergs, even if they were only ice cubes.

         
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    Posted: 03 August 2009 04:20 PM #37

    willrob - 03 August 2009 06:30 PM
    artman1033 - 03 August 2009 04:52 PM
    willrob - 03 August 2009 04:49 PM

    CNBC reports that SEC is after BAC and the price drops 50?.

    BAC was at “about” $15.31 prior to the announcement. Now at $15.24.

    Earlier this a.m. BAC was at 15.62, but when the news hit it was at 15.53 and dropped to 14.96 before bouncing. Stops must have triggered, since many BAC traders never trust the stock to rally and are ready to leap to the shore if they think they see ice bergs, even if they were only ice cubes.

    You realize that BAC is Morgan Stanley’s top pick in large cap banking stocks.

    While everybody waits for AAPL to go to China, BAC is also going to expand its China lending and has just hired Bing Wang to run China (I can’t make these names up). We’re looking at 8-9% growth for the next 15-20 years in China.

    As it sits, the $33M SEC fine is a rounding error that created a trading opportunity.

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 03 August 2009 04:25 PM #38

    Eric Landstrom - 03 August 2009 07:20 PM

    You realize that BAC is Morgan Stanley’s top pick in large cap banking stocks.

    While everybody waits for AAPL to go to China, BAC is also going to expand its China lending and has just hired Bing Wang to run China (I can’t make these names up). We’re looking at 8-9% growth for the next 15-20 years in China.

     

    Eric, do you still consider BAC a good bet even at the current stock price? Are you trading or holding for greater profits later this year or next year?

    What are your thoughts on AAPL at the moment? I currently am long but since I bought in euros I cringe every time the dollar slides and takes away half my daily gains.

    Thanks for your insight!

         
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    Posted: 03 August 2009 04:40 PM #39

    artman1033 - 03 August 2009 07:29 PM

    11,900,000 volume on AAPL…..

    PATHETIC!


    SO much indecision out there.


    So much fear!

    Apple continues to ignore the recession.


    COME ON SHORTS!

    CREATE A BUYING OPPORTUNITY INTO THE CLOSE.

    Technicians saw AAPL banging against the top channel formed by joining all tops since Dec.

    Edit:
    Eric - The focus of my comment is money not stock market or share price.

    [ Edited: 03 August 2009 04:43 PM by Mace ]

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    Posted: 03 August 2009 05:01 PM #40

    NorthStar - 03 August 2009 07:25 PM
    Eric Landstrom - 03 August 2009 07:20 PM

    You realize that BAC is Morgan Stanley’s top pick in large cap banking stocks.

    While everybody waits for AAPL to go to China, BAC is also going to expand its China lending and has just hired Bing Wang to run China (I can’t make these names up). We’re looking at 8-9% growth for the next 15-20 years in China.

     

    Eric, do you still consider BAC a good bet even at the current stock price? Are you trading or holding for greater profits later this year or next year?

    What are your thoughts on AAPL at the moment? I currently am long but since I bought in euros I cringe every time the dollar slides and takes away half my daily gains.

    Thanks for your insight!

    As I stated last month: With Spanked by America spanking onward into the future, when judged by the $1.9T earning assets, I believe that we can assume a $35-40B EPS street estimate which is $5-10B above Ken Lewis’ more conservative estimate of $30B EPS. With earnings of $4.50 a share we can expect BAC to double or triple over the next 24 months. I said that when Spanked by America was trading $11.30ish to $12.60ish. I maintain my outlook and I continue to have my money invested in BAC (which means I’m talking my book).

    Apple is a bit different than the rest of tech because it has iPhone growth potential but as soon as Microsoft releases its newest version of Windows, in the face of PC sales, Mac sales growth won’t matter as much as it does now. Moreover, if we pull back and consider investing according to the broadest economic cycle where we are in the end of bear market and the beginning of the bull market, it is the tween time that tech shines brightest. Once we kick into a full-on Bull market, tech tends to maintain it sales whereas stocks kick out the best returns during explosive periods of growth.

    Right or wrong, over the last two weeks I’ve a net gain in cash as something of a hedge.

    1) discipline means that when junk screams higher, I must book some profits.

    2) increasing my cash position allows me to take advantage of market opportunities.

    3) The increase in cash came from booking profits in F and AAPL mostly but smelling the squeeze, I increased my BAC exposure last week.

    Keep in mind that I stated to the Swiss Family Landstrom back in January that this year (2009) wasn’t the year we make money. Rather this was the year we built out positions so that we can afford red-headed step children. While I’ve made money and I continue to trade around core holdings, I’m more heavily biased on sector plays much like fund managers. As a result I’ve got a lot of balls in the air right now.

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 03 August 2009 05:23 PM #41

    Eric - Thanks for posting your views and insights.  Much valued and appreciated.

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    “Knowledge speaks, but wisdom listens.”
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    Posted: 03 August 2009 05:35 PM #42

    Eric Landstrom - 03 August 2009 08:01 PM

    As I stated last month: With Spanked by America spanking onward into the future, when judged by the $1.9T earning assets, I believe that we can assume a $35-40B EPS street estimate which is $5-10B above Ken Lewis’ more conservative estimate of $30B EPS. With earnings of $4.50 a share we can expect BAC to double or triple over the next 24 months. I said that when Spanked by America was trading $11.30ish to $12.60ish. I maintain my outlook and I continue to have my money invested in BAC (which means I’m talking my book).

    Apple is a bit different than the rest of tech because it has iPhone growth potential but as soon as Microsoft releases its newest version of Windows, in the face of PC sales, Mac sales growth won’t matter as much as it does now. Moreover, if we pull back and consider investing according to the broadest economic cycle where we are in the end of bear market and the beginning of the bull market, it is the tween time that tech shines brightest. Once we kick into a full-on Bull market, tech tends to maintain it sales whereas stocks kick out the best returns during explosive periods of growth.

    Thank you Eric. I really appreciate your insight. I recall your comments on BAC when it was trading around $12. I should have paid more attention then. Are you convinced then that we are now at the beginning of a bull market? If I recall your comments from late last year, you felt that housing wouldn’t recover until October whereas everyone was expecting a recovery in June/July.

         
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    Posted: 03 August 2009 06:29 PM #43

    Eric Landstrom - 03 August 2009 08:01 PM
    NorthStar - 03 August 2009 07:25 PM
    Eric Landstrom - 03 August 2009 07:20 PM

    You realize that BAC is Morgan Stanley’s top pick in large cap banking stocks.

    While everybody waits for AAPL to go to China, BAC is also going to expand its China lending and has just hired Bing Wang to run China (I can’t make these names up). We’re looking at 8-9% growth for the next 15-20 years in China.

     

    Eric, do you still consider BAC a good bet even at the current stock price? Are you trading or holding for greater profits later this year or next year?

    What are your thoughts on AAPL at the moment? I currently am long but since I bought in euros I cringe every time the dollar slides and takes away half my daily gains.

    Thanks for your insight!

    As I stated last month: With Spanked by America spanking onward into the future, when judged by the $1.9T earning assets, I believe that we can assume a $35-40B EPS street estimate which is $5-10B above Ken Lewis’ more conservative estimate of $30B EPS. With earnings of $4.50 a share we can expect BAC to double or triple over the next 24 months. I said that when Spanked by America was trading $11.30ish to $12.60ish. I maintain my outlook and I continue to have my money invested in BAC (which means I’m talking my book).

    Apple is a bit different than the rest of tech because it has iPhone growth potential but as soon as Microsoft releases its newest version of Windows, in the face of PC sales, Mac sales growth won’t matter as much as it does now. Moreover, if we pull back and consider investing according to the broadest economic cycle where we are in the end of bear market and the beginning of the bull market, it is the tween time that tech shines brightest. Once we kick into a full-on Bull market, tech tends to maintain it sales whereas stocks kick out the best returns during explosive periods of growth.

    Right or wrong, over the last two weeks I’ve a net gain in cash as something of a hedge.

    1) discipline means that when junk screams higher, I must book some profits.

    2) increasing my cash position allows me to take advantage of market opportunities.

    3) The increase in cash came from booking profits in F and AAPL mostly but smelling the squeeze, I increased my BAC exposure last week.

    Keep in mind that I stated to the Swiss Family Landstrom back in January that this year (2009) wasn’t the year we make money. Rather this was the year we built out positions so that we can afford red-headed step children. While I’ve made money and I continue to trade around core holdings, I’m more heavily biased on sector plays much like fund managers. As a result I’ve got a lot of balls in the air right now.


    That last comment makes me laugh.I have some of those same balls in the air, so I hope we don’t touch. lol Eric, last week I asked you what you thought about JCP, I am still holding, today was to encouraging to get out. (F) is the the greatest stock ever right now.

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  • Posted: 03 August 2009 09:13 PM #44

    Eric Landstrom - 03 August 2009 08:01 PM

    .... As a result I’ve got a lot of balls in the air right now.

    Luckily you have your trading assistant standing by to fetch any you drop.

         
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    Posted: 03 August 2009 11:10 PM #45

    willrob - 04 August 2009 12:13 AM
    Eric Landstrom - 03 August 2009 08:01 PM

    .... As a result I’ve got a lot of balls in the air right now.

    Luckily you have your trading assistant standing by to fetch any you drop.

    Bill knows what it is like when a ball gets away.

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.