New Business Model at MSFT?
Roughly Drafted forescasts that Microsoft will begin manufacturing its own phone with the release of WinMo7 sometime in 2010. He also speculates that the rouges from Redmond will eventually make make their own computer hardware.
If he is correct regarding WinMo7, then each major phone OS will have an integrated supplier (Nokia/Symbian, Apple, RIM, MS, Palm) except for Google. Android would presumably retain the hard/soft separation.
I find the speculation regarding PC half of it even more thought-provoking. HP and Dell have thus far made no serious foray into Linux. Unlike Dell (and apparently unknown to RD), HP has a rich history of software development, including operating systems.
It would seem that both ends of this would be good news for Google. Perhaps for Apple as well.
MS has very shaky track record on the hardware front. And HP and Dell don’t need much of a push or excuse to redouble efforts with making Linux viable.
Does ANYONE at MS have an original Idea?? Never mind, it was a rhetorical question…
I’ve been covering MSFT’s failing model in recent posts at Eventide.
MSFT is in a tough spot in terms of return on revenue and the market is quickly moving away from the PC-centric model toward handheld devices. Windows 7 is the last of the major release I think we will see of the bloated OS.
MSFT has five years to revolutionize its OS and must move into the handheld device market sooner rather than later. Even a 2010 debut of an updated version of Windows Mobile is pushing the timeline. RIMM, Apple and Google will not be sitting still.
How quickly and how well Microsoft can adapt to a business or market outside of the exiting “command and control” paradigm will be answered in time.
AAPL making $400 profit on twice as many phones as MSFT is making maybe $5 revenue on? Whether they know it or not, MSFT is either getting out of the phone business, or making its own phones. Who knows what Ballmer really thinks. Bill Gates already hopped off MS as it speeds towards destruction, and is just cashing in his shares regular as clockwork and keeping his distance.
MS should be focussed on defending their position in the enterprise, or Google, Apple and cloud start-ups will suck that last juice out of MS faster than you can imagine. Remember what short work MS made of its competitors when it had some? If you earn your living as a Microsoft Certified mouse clicker, re-train soon. Saving your salary is going to be one of the attractive motivations for business to switch away from MS.
Microsoft and others MIGHT be able to project where OSX is heading and attempt to compete with that. The great wild card is P.A. Semi and what Apple will be able to do with their advancements and the high level of integration made possible by building the whole widget. Am I crazy to believe that there is not a viable competitor in sight?
I don’t mind being wrong…,I just hate being wrong so FAST!
Am I crazy to believe that there is not a viable competitor in sight?
I see viable competitors present: RIMM, Palm and Nokia. I also see viable competitors approaching fast: MSFT.
The conspicuous app store advantage won’t continue forever. Apple has through Christmas to deliver volume for developers and accessories makers to build out the eco-system ahead of stiff competition appearing in 2010.
The pending release of the Apple tablet will be another game changer but that effort will be focused on destroying the underpinnings of the PC market while establishing another viable market for app store sales as well as entertainment content (movies, books, etc.).
MSFT sees itself as vulnerable to the Chrome OS for netbooks. Apple isn’t the company’s biggest concern. But taking on Google on all fronts will change the economic terrain.
In my view the best thing for Apple to do is push volume while the conspicuous advantages of the iPhone remain and before that advantage is purposely obscured by the products MSFT intends to bring to market.
Apple’s in an enviable position due to pricing control and can adjust margins for volume while still making a handsome profit. Apple could guide smartphone prices lower during the remaining months of the exclusive deal (margins will be forced lower following expiration of the deal) and position itself with the best and most profitable eco-system for developers and accessories makers before this war moves to just about every major market around the globe.
A Chine deal (while not necessary now as the global 3GS roll out continues), will be a strategic chess piece as we move into 2010 and competitors seek to establish a beachhead anyplace they can.