Now Everyone Can Focus on the Numbers
The best part of today’s event is now that its over, everyone can stop obsessing about the Beatles, tablets, cameras, etc. Even Steve Jobs health is further in the rear view mirror after a spirited return to the stage.
For the rest of the year, the only thing that should drive the stock is sales and earnings. We’ll hopefully see a gradual climb as hints of good quarterly numbers start circulating, and then we could get another good pop after the earnings release. As in numerous years past, this can drive further stock growth well into the holiday season.
There’s a lot of shiny things at Apple, the company, that can cause distraction, but for AAPL, the stock, its always the numbers that shine.
Do you mean sales numbers like 50M touch devices. 30M Iphone and 20M ITouch. In July at WWDC the number was 40M So we are growing both lines at a nice clip. If we look at previous Iphone data we were at about 26M cumulative sales for the Iphone so another 4M so far this quarter and 6M Ipod touches. Of course we have no idea what the cutoff date is for the SJ slide show but it looks to me like we are looking at a nice quarter for both Iphone and Ipod. I’m sure a bunch of folks will make a big deal about the lack of a camera on the Itouch but IMO they look to be aiming the touch at the handheld gaming market and needed to get the price a little lower to compare more favorably with the PSP go and DS. I find it a bit odd that they left out the 16GB version but we still have plenty of time before Christmas to bring out a suprise.
I hope the lack of a 16G model doesn’t convince buyers that they should wait for the version with the camera. Waiting might hurt sales, and even if such a model appears with a camera, it will only anger buyers who bought the new models. Of course we have only the rumor mill for proposing the iPod Touch with camera possibility. For all we know, Apple never intended to bring such a device to market. But they will take all the blame for disappointing expectations.
interesting that the new Nano’s do not take still pictures. Just video.
Buried in the link David Pogue Chat with Steve Jobs, Steve Jobs himself mentioned a reason:
“The sensors for doing video are fairly thin. The sensors for doing a still camera, at much higher pixel resolution ? and we?d really like to have autofocus ? they are just way too thick to ever fit inside the Nano.”
He made the most important point in this chat and one that will increase “future numbers” for years as people come to know just how good the “touch” devices are (and then repeat purchase of them through those years):
“And now what we really see is it?s the lowest-cost way to the App Store, and that?s the big draw. So what we were focused on is just reducing the price to $199. We don?t need to add new stuff ? we need to get the price down where everyone can afford it.”
An affordable invitation to purchase for many newcomers.
And to think back just a few years ago what an iPod would have cost with nowhere near the capabilities. And when price levels were reduced, volume dramatically rose.
Well written article in MacWorld on the potential impact of the new Ipods to Apple’s bottom line
The holidays, whether you focus on iPod units or sheer dollars, are huge for Apple. And the purpose of the fall iPod event is for Apple to tell a story about the products it?s going to make available during that period. (It?s no mistake that the two most important product announcements at Wednesday?s event were accompanied by television commercials.) That?s why it?s useful to look at this week?s Apple announcements through that filter.
Take the iPod nano. The story there is about high-school and college students. That video camera that Apple has added to the back? It?s for ?fun? use, according to Apple. The quality won?t be very good, but it?s easy to connect it back to your computer and upload it to YouTube. Apple?s TV commercial for the nano is a series of young people dressed in brightly colored clothing doing energetic things while being recorded on video. That?s a gift idea, folks.
Then there?s the iPod touch, which?strangely?doesn?t have a camera on it, even though the iPhone and the iPod nano do. Apple?s response on that point is best handled by Steve Jobs himself, as told to David Pogue of the New York Times :
Originally, we weren?t exactly sure how to market the Touch. Was it an iPhone without the phone? Was it a pocket computer? What happened was, what customers told us was, they started to see it as a game machine. Because a lot of the games were free on the store. Customers started to tell us, ?You don?t know what you?ve got here ? it?s a great game machine, with the multitouch screen, the accelerometer, and so on.?
We started to market it that way, and it just took off. And now what we really see is it?s the lowest-cost way to the App Store, and that?s the big draw. So what we were focused on is just reducing the price to $199. We don?t need to add new stuff?we need to get the price down where everyone can afford it.
In other words, sure, the iPod touch with a camera might have been cool. But that didn?t fit the story, the concept that Apple can communicate that will sell iPod touch models by the truckload. The obvious story about the iPod touch?and what made it such a huge success last year?is that it?s not just an iPod, but an iPod that?s also a gaming device. If you?re buying a present for a kid (or a kid at heart), why buy a music or video player, or a dedicated game device, when you can get them both? Apple sold a lot of iPod touches with that logic last year, and my money?s on it selling even more of them this year.