I have just watched the video that I posted the link to above. It is an hour long, in depth and very upbeat.
FWIW, one of my investment thesis was that any company that is backstopped by the government cannot fail. As such, the counter-trade was to buy them when everybody was selling. The new issue is trying to determine fair market value. If C gets a handle on the preferred shares then determining the valuation of the company will be that much easier. Disclosure: I have been steadily buying more and more C.
FWIW, one of my investment thesis was that any company that is backstopped by the government cannot fail. As such, the counter-trade was to buy them when everybody was selling. The new issue is trying to determine fair market value.
that is also my basic workinig thesis. I have been watching C since they took their first big plunge down to 18 dollars per share. If they can get anywhere back to that plateau, many of us here will make a pretty penny. But like Eric said, it is hard to figure out what the company’s current share book value is as so much has changed.
We should be lead out of this recession by the financial sector even as the next shoe to drop will be commercial. However, in the words of Pandit, “We hit every pothole except that one.” This to say that with C, I’m not too concerned about collapsing commercial real estate. C also can do something that no other bank can: because C is in so many different countries, many multinational corporations bank with Citibank. This is important in my view because I believe that we’ll be lead by corporate spending, not consumer spending with high unemployment trailing as we slowly pull out of the recession.
Firing from the hip I think that C is priced to perfection at $5 and overbought anywhere about and underbought anywhere below. If C pays off the $25B TRAP money, then I think C is priced to perfection at $8.00 a share but will very likely overshoot well above that. I’d like to hear the views of others regarding expectations and valuation.
Firing from the hip I think that C is priced to perfection at $5 and overbought anywhere about and underbought anywhere below. If C pays off the $25B TRAP money, then I think C is priced to perfection at $8.00 a share but will very likely overshoot well above that. I’d like to hear the views of others regarding expectations and valuation.
When you say 5$ is the target price, are you thinking of a 6-month frame or a 1yr frame Eric. I’m thinking about a mid to long term prospect. I don’t think C will get back to it’s 45-50 dollar highs that it enjoyed just before the crash, but I think in three to five years time I think we will doing better at multiples of 5$...
Firing from the hip I think that C is priced to perfection at $5 and overbought anywhere about and underbought anywhere below. If C pays off the $25B TRAP money, then I think C is priced to perfection at $8.00 a share but will very likely overshoot well above that. I’d like to hear the views of others regarding expectations and valuation.
When you say 5$ is the target price, are you thinking of a 6-month frame or a 1yr frame Eric. I’m thinking about a mid to long term prospect. I don’t think C will get back to it’s 45-50 dollar highs that it enjoyed just before the crash, but I think in three to five years time I think we will doing better at multiples of 5$...
or so I hope.
Jose
$5.00 is my thesis for the current trading range, TARP paid off is my thesis for what it will need to move convincingly beyond $5.00.
Since this was back on Sep 11th and the following 2 days had high selling pressure would it make sense that this roughly 4.5% of the float being sold contributed to the selloff?
Pardon my ignorance for asking Wilrob, but what do all these numbers represent?
Jose
The pivot points are primarily useful to traders, or those looking to buy shares (and are looking for the lowest entry point) or those wishing to sell shares (and are looking for the potential high of the day). Stocks typically will bounce back off of a resistance point, unless some news (such as Cramer pumping AAPL last week, which caused it to break through R4) is in play, in which case exuberance or fear can move the price.
C seems to do most of its movement in the premarket and then trudge along in a narrow range all day, as shorts pile on and buyers try to eek out every penny of price. Right now it’s at 4.62, just above the midpoint before R2. The midpoints are often precisely where the price will either break out or retreat. Actually half way between the midpoint and the next higher or lower price is also a powerful pivot. Of course that assumes a market that is trading on technical analysis, or believes others are trading on technical grounds. But the irrational often rules. Today, for example, C is up because BAC got an upgrade (to $25) from Dick Bove, who shamelessly changes his mind about the banks every other week.
If you’re a long term holder of C, the pivots are less important.
Since this was back on Sep 11th and the following 2 days had high selling pressure would it make sense that this roughly 4.5% of the float being sold contributed to the selloff?
Straight out of the I can’t make this stuff up file. A political fundraiser is charged with stealing nearing $300M from banks, including HSBC, C and BAC owing $75M to Citi and $142M to BAC.
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