Over the weekend while bringing more furniture to the lake from the city and listening to NPR a short segment came on discussing the current state of the real estate crisis. It was said that banking is absorbing some 300,000 foreclosures a month and that a further 5,000,000 foreclosures are expected before all real estate markets in the nation stabilize.
Over the weekend while bringing more furniture to the lake from the city and listening to NPR a short segment came on discussing the current state of the real estate crisis. It was said that banking is absorbing some 300,000 foreclosures a month and that a further 5,000,000 foreclosures are expected before all real estate markets in the nation stabilize.
Over the weekend while bringing more furniture to the lake from the city and listening to NPR a short segment came on discussing the current state of the real estate crisis. It was said that banking is absorbing some 300,000 foreclosures a month and that a further 5,000,000 foreclosures are expected before all real estate markets in the nation stabilize.
And these guys have been right WHEN before?
Who cares if its right or wrong? What all of these the world will always get worse stories reflect is a pullback in sentiment. Being the counter-trend guy I am, I cautiously become more interested when others become more and more fearful because the time will come soon enough when Mr. Market will pay me anything I ask for my equities.
It was said that banking is absorbing some 300,000 foreclosures a month and that a further 5,000,000 foreclosures are expected before all real estate markets in the nation stabilize.
This appears to be consistent with your Credit Suisse chart, which I don’t have handy to reference. I calculate about 17 months at the stated rate. That puts us at April 2011.
Did that chart imply another market “bump” sometime next summer, when the majority of the ARMs reset? Between it and Prector’s 1100 on the S&P that Mace is always reminding us of will set off the Apocalypse, one can start to get nervous.
Just watching as $4.11 support got taken out, and waiting for the day when some decent TARP repayment news has a real impact on C. Isn’t it always the way, C hits $5 prior to earnings and you hang on in there expecting a bump, and then the absolute opposite occurs. Typical. However, I have no doubt that for C the worst is behind it, and sooner or later some real price moving news will push it skywards.
It is but I’m being a little disciplined due to a few other trades going on. I want to stay somewhat neutral on the overall markets but right now I"m a little longer than I desire so I’m holding until I sell some other positions. If I did have a more overall neutral position I would start to dabble for a trade though.
The banks are back in play here so let’s revive this topic. From what I’m reading about the deferred tax asset it’s basically a tax credit, a prepaid expense if you will that is treated as an asset. Banks are more focused now on earnings to protect TCE (tangible common equity) and show the investment community and government they are profitable they are delaying tapping into this tax credit. What was estimated on Friday is C for example will be pressured to take 10 billion of that asset due to increased interest income which will hurt earnings and TCE. I heard an analyst on Friday talking about how BAC, WFC others should have done another common offering back in July when things looked stronger. So fear of another round of common offerings should pressure banks further at least for a few days. I’m holding off on C right now but am buying BAC common and moving out of my preferred slowly. I like the upside on the common over the preferred right now and will start writing calls against the common to offset the preferred income I won’t be getting.
There, the topic is started again - thoughts anyone on the banks????
Blogger Guy’s latest post on C suggests a double bottom of $4 was put in on Friday. I thought that there needed to be a wider number of trading days between lows before you could properly make that call.
“Citigroup Inc (C:NYSE) appears to have made a double bottom at $4 on Friday as old news of a potential 10 billion dollar write down failed to move the stock lower. An analyst even came on CNBC and said that if Citigroup was forced to make this write down, it would not effect the long term prospects and would basically be a non issue. $4.00 must hold here or else the stock faces another plunge into the $3.57-$3.80 range. I continue to watch the 10 & 50 day moving averages. We will see some strength in Citigroup when it closes back over the 10 day moving average ( currently $4.33 ) and should see the uptrend continue when Citi closes back over the 50 day moving average ( $4.58 ).”
I just wish that the bank CEOs would be more vocal in denouncing the FUD. I thought that the whole point of the stress tests was to take account of worst case scenarios (including commercial property defaults). If it IS pure FUD for goodness sake say so and let’s move on.
Blogger Guy’s latest post on C suggests a double bottom of $4 was put in on Friday. I thought that there needed to be a wider number of trading days between lows before you could properly make that call.
“Citigroup Inc (C:NYSE) appears to have made a double bottom at $4 on Friday as old news of a potential 10 billion dollar write down failed to move the stock lower. An analyst even came on CNBC and said that if Citigroup was forced to make this write down, it would not effect the long term prospects and would basically be a non issue. $4.00 must hold here or else the stock faces another plunge into the $3.57-$3.80 range. I continue to watch the 10 & 50 day moving averages. We will see some strength in Citigroup when it closes back over the 10 day moving average ( currently $4.33 ) and should see the uptrend continue when Citi closes back over the 50 day moving average ( $4.58 ).”
I just wish that the bank CEOs would be more vocal in denouncing the FUD. I thought that the whole point of the stress tests was to take account of worst case scenarios (including commercial property defaults). If it IS pure FUD for goodness sake say so and let’s move on.
What hit C and may hit other banks on Friday was the deferred tax asset and a 10 billion write down possibly for the coming Q. I don’t know if this is old news or not. It came from a reputable analyst on Friday and C did respond saying they have no idea how he came up with that figure. Anyone know if this is truly old news and conveniently being surfaced to hit the banks again? They are trying to manage the bottom line by showing growth when in fact they should be depleting this tax credit from their balance sheet. That’s how I understand things. It’s not about the stress tests.
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