AAPL Intraday Updates

  • Posted: 02 October 2009 09:48 AM #91

    awcabot - 02 October 2009 12:34 PM

    Unemployment at 9.8%, the upper range of expectations.

    Yep, it is. But I think that’s not the shocker - the non-farm payroll number was the real slap in the face for the market.

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    Posted: 02 October 2009 10:04 AM #92

    The 20d EMA is at $179.70.  I do no think it will provide any support. The S&P is below it’s 20d EMA (1046.43), but still above the lower Bollinger band.
    I think AAPL will have to decline 4% to $173, which coincides with sigma=-1 Bollinger Band, before I consider buying some calls. Opinions?

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    Posted: 02 October 2009 10:11 AM #93

    Just heard a report that on days like today the market historically tends to drift higher.  Could easily fill the gap today.  Not being a bull here just be nimble today if you are trading.

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    Posted: 02 October 2009 10:13 AM #94

    Also heard aapl got another price target up to 265.  Lots of upgrades today.  Certainly not an easy one to call.  We are 6% into a correction and will likely come close to our 10% around 1010 which is a very critical support going back to the 666 lows.

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  • Posted: 02 October 2009 10:14 AM #95

    runedge - 02 October 2009 01:11 PM

    Just heard a report that on days like today the market historically tends to drift higher.  Could easily fill the gap today.  Not being a bull here just be nimble today if you are trading.

    Could happen! If that happens, AAPl could see 185 again - it got an upgrade to $265 this morning. I might have to change my strategy and get back in if the market turns. We might not see 170s afterall. It will be interesting to watch today.

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  • Posted: 02 October 2009 10:15 AM #96

    runedge - 02 October 2009 01:11 PM

    Just heard a report that on days like today the market historically tends to drift higher.  Could easily fill the gap today.  Not being a bull here just be nimble today if you are trading.

    what do you mean with days like today?

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  • Posted: 02 October 2009 10:17 AM #97

    N.L. - 02 October 2009 01:15 PM
    runedge - 02 October 2009 01:11 PM

    Just heard a report that on days like today the market historically tends to drift higher.  Could easily fill the gap today.  Not being a bull here just be nimble today if you are trading.

    what do you mean with days like today?

    Days like ‘The sky is falling!’ and when the retail investors panic and sell everything b/c everyone under the sun expects a big correction coming. That’s when the big boys step in and buy at the lows and lift the market.

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    Posted: 02 October 2009 10:18 AM #98

    N.L. - 02 October 2009 01:15 PM
    runedge - 02 October 2009 01:11 PM

    Just heard a report that on days like today the market historically tends to drift higher.  Could easily fill the gap today.  Not being a bull here just be nimble today if you are trading.

    what do you mean with days like today?

    Bad NFP reports (look at a graph of this report though, looks normal to me but that’s not for me to decide).  Short term we are oversold with yesterday’s big sell off.  Today we’ll gap down.  Could easily fill that gap or depending how low we go intraday could bring some real buyers in and not traders who will sell off into the close.  Also think how many times did you expect armageddon in the markets (scratch the past year of your historical views though) and the markets actually showed strength.  I’m not saying this is the case but to short the hell out of everything based on pre market action is also not a wise move.

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    Posted: 02 October 2009 11:21 AM #99

    One negative to options is you tend to get shaken out a little easier.  Sold some 2010 options right before aapl moved up.  If I was in common I’d hold but at this point with just a few months left any correction could really hit shorter dated options.  Oh well, made money, just not as much.  Why is that such a hard emotion to overcome?  Futures few points away from filling the gap (/ES) see what happens when they fill.  Factory orders will support the bear thesis of a pause in the recovery which is a very strong argument right now.

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  • Posted: 02 October 2009 11:25 AM #100

    I changed my strategy after I saw that AAPL moved above 183. Bought some 185 Oct calls for $4.20 and sold my RIMM 65 Oct puts for 1.75 after it failed to break through 65.80, which is the short term support. And in addition the market is turning.

    I hust hope that we won’t have another sell off into to close is quite possible!

    I actullay think with this upgrade and the news how the Macs are selling like fresh bagels and the iPhone is stealing more and more market share - we might see close to $200 before earnings. Artman - you should like that theory!!

    [ Edited: 02 October 2009 11:27 AM by Plato ]

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    Posted: 02 October 2009 11:28 AM #101

    I’m pleased I bought back the short leg of my Oct 185/190 call spread near the close for 1.85 :-D

         
  • Posted: 02 October 2009 11:29 AM #102

    artman1033 - 02 October 2009 02:26 PM
    Plato - 02 October 2009 02:25 PM

    I changed my strategy after I saw that AAPL moved above 183. Bought some 185 Oct calls for $4.20 and sold my RIMM 65 Oct puts for 1.75 after it failed to break through 65.80, which is the short term support. And in addition the market is turning.

    I hust hope that we won’t have another sell off into to close is quite possible!

    AAPL to hit 190 before 178!

    Agreed! One has to change his plan when realized that it’s no longer valid. I didn’t expect that kind of recovery in the market after the job numbers thins morning - however I mentioned in an earlier message that a reversal is quite possible when the big boys start buying!

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    Posted: 02 October 2009 11:32 AM #103

    May be wrong but throwing out a possible scenario.  If you were long and wanted a chance to get out of this market thinking this correction has more legs then you are getting it right now.  With that said and the strength this market is showing right now I would not be surprised to see us close significantly red or at least do a test of the lows intraday that gets bought by those who missed it.  It’s also a Friday, not many will want to be long and read in WSJ, etc how horrific the economy is (which I think is wrong).  Personally I’ll be buying if we get that retest because I’m selling into strength and will have some cash to “gamble.”

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    Posted: 02 October 2009 11:43 AM #104

    runedge - 02 October 2009 02:32 PM

    May be wrong but throwing out a possible scenario.  If you were long and wanted a chance to get out of this market thinking this correction has more legs then you are getting it right now.  With that said and the strength this market is showing right now I would not be surprised to see us close significantly red or at least do a test of the lows intraday that gets bought by those who missed it.  It’s also a Friday, not many will want to be long and read in WSJ, etc how horrific the economy is (which I think is wrong).  Personally I’ll be buying if we get that retest because I’m selling into strength and will have some cash to “gamble.”

    S&P is positive.

    Hail the value buyers as they march through the city!

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  • Posted: 02 October 2009 11:44 AM #105

    70 minutes into the trading day and we’re at around 8.5mio volume. Looking good. 185.40 as I type. Wow!!

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    “We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office.” - Aesop