Long term investor now getting nervous

  • Posted: 13 October 2009 12:55 AM

    It’s been a long time since I have posted but still read AFB every day, However I have this strange gut worry about APPL,  Is it justified ?

    I have no complaints re APPL’s performance perhaps more in my lack of investor knowledge as I got in in the mid $66 in early 06, this was pre iPhone and I have held the “faith” solidly up on quite a wild ride. In hindsight stupidly I took no advantage of the fall from over 200 and back to today..
    I am sure there are a lot of others in a similar position to me. We are heading back to all time highs with our eyes set on $300 some time in 2010 or 2011, is it truly possible? I know no one can say, we seemingly are all waiting for the economy to slowly recover and to sell twice the amount of iPhones and a possible launch of a tablet ect..  will it have wings with something we haven’t seen coming.

    Perhaps i am being overly pessimistic? My original idea was to sell in the the next ten years in the $900’s yes it feels far fetched and unrealistic today and I say $900 with the fear of others laughing me off the board but it was/is the dream, APPL has to continue to grow and add to market share.

    a few other things that give me this worrying feeling are..

    Windows 7 seems to have had much better reviews and MS seem to be slowly shaking there Vista nightmare and this take some advantage that Apple had away in selling premium priced products.

    Competing Smart phones… well there everywhere.

    The last thing but still hugely important

    Apples tight grip on all things Apple.  As a person working in the creative world I shake my head in disbelief at Apples inability to service my industry fully. Yes the towers are wonderful but quite often a huge overkill with the processor speeds on laptops and iMacs so fast now. But there instance with glossy screens has to stop, even a iMac and with a premium “Pro” price with a matt price would run off the shelf and the same for Displays..

    Sorry I know I have covered a lot of ground here but it is just some thought for discussion.

         
  • Posted: 13 October 2009 01:05 AM #1

    How can Windows 7 be THAT great when it’s based on Vista? 

    And in case some of you are spooked over Walt Mossberg’s slobbering review of Windows 7, read this!

         
  • Posted: 13 October 2009 01:17 AM #2

    Mercel - 13 October 2009 04:05 AM

    How can Windows 7 be THAT great when it’s based on Vista? 

    And in case some of you are spooked over Walt Mossberg’s slobbering review of Windows 7, read this!

    Thanks for the link it makes a good point… 
    For the record i started off with a Macintosh SE 30 and OS: 7.5 and have never had the misfortune to use windows…

         
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    Posted: 13 October 2009 01:21 AM #3

    Downunder - 13 October 2009 03:55 AM

    It’s been a long time since I have posted but still read AFB every day, However I have this strange gut worry about APPL,  Is it justified ?

    I have no complaints re APPL’s performance perhaps more in my lack of investor knowledge as I got in in the mid $66 in early 06, this was pre iPhone and I have held the “faith” solidly up on quite a wild ride. In hindsight stupidly I took no advantage of the fall from over 200 and back to today..
    I am sure there are a lot of others in a similar position to me. We are heading back to all time highs with our eyes set on $300 some time in 2010 or 2011, is it truly possible? I know no one can say, we seemingly are all waiting for the economy to slowly recover and to sell twice the amount of iPhones and a possible launch of a tablet ect..  will it have wings with something we haven’t seen coming.

    Perhaps i am being overly pessimistic? My original idea was to sell in the the next ten years in the $900’s yes it feels far fetched and unrealistic today and I say $900 with the fear of others laughing me off the board but it was/is the dream, APPL has to continue to grow and add to market share.

    a few other things that give me this worrying feeling are..

    Windows 7 seems to have had much better reviews and MS seem to be slowly shaking there Vista nightmare and this take some advantage that Apple had away in selling premium priced products.

    Competing Smart phones… well there everywhere.

    The last thing but still hugely important

    Apples tight grip on all things Apple.  As a person working in the creative world I shake my head in disbelief at Apples inability to service my industry fully. Yes the towers are wonderful but quite often a huge overkill with the processor speeds on laptops and iMacs so fast now. But there instance with glossy screens has to stop, even a iMac and with a premium “Pro” price with a matt price would run off the shelf and the same for Displays..

    Sorry I know I have covered a lot of ground here but it is just some thought for discussion.[/quote

    PUSSY

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    ldrhawke

    Never Underestimate the Power of Stupid People in Large Groups or of Hedge Funds that Naked Short Sell aapl

         
  • Posted: 13 October 2009 01:27 AM #4

    Mercel - 13 October 2009 04:05 AM

    How can Windows 7 be THAT great when it’s based on Vista? 

    And in case some of you are spooked over Walt Mossberg’s slobbering review of Windows 7, read this!

    But that cute little Asian girl makes those lovely slide shows. Windows 7 must be great. After all, she’s cute, and she’s a PC.

         
  • Posted: 13 October 2009 01:28 AM #5

    ldrhawke - 13 October 2009 04:21 AM

    PUSSY

    PMSL thanks for that ldrhawke it all feels much better now!!!

         
  • Posted: 13 October 2009 01:49 AM #6

    I don’t know about anyone else, but I’m not thinking of moving out of AAPL at any price under $300 per share and plan to substantially ride the shares to $500 per share. I’m not an investment advisor nor do I intend to to suggest anything I say is advice for others.

    My views are based on the fundamentals of the company, my view of the growth prospects for the iPhone and iPhone OS platform and what I consider to be solid plans for Apple to introduce its own chip designs for future devices. I like what I see and for the next two to three years I see almost unbridled growth. But do your own research and make your own decisions based on your circumstances and personal comfort levels.

         
  • Posted: 13 October 2009 02:06 AM #7

    willrob - 13 October 2009 04:27 AM
    Mercel - 13 October 2009 04:05 AM

    How can Windows 7 be THAT great when it’s based on Vista? 

    And in case some of you are spooked over Walt Mossberg’s slobbering review of Windows 7, read this!

    But that cute little Asian girl makes those lovely slide shows. Windows 7 must be great. After all, she’s cute, and she’s a PC.

    Windows 7 = Happy words?

    Makes me cringe every time they run it.  (this is the only time I’ve ever gone looking for a ‘projectile vomit’ smiley.  Come to think of it…,they had some of that in one of their ads)

    Signature

    I don’t mind being wrong…,I just hate being wrong so FAST!

         
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    Posted: 13 October 2009 02:15 AM #8

    Ok here is the deal.

    INTC will announce earnings tomorrow. They will point out that demand has increased and they have raised their outlook for next year’s PC demand.  Windows 7 may have to do something with this.

    My sister in law works for INTC.  She confirmed for me that for the first time INTEL is rehiring people back.  Not many but hiring back.  Their last layoffs were in May.  Also INTC is spending millions in reopening and updating an old fab. 

    If INTC goes up so will the market.  The future is bright for INTC and aapl for many reasons. 

    Just remember a couple facts.  Unemployment has gone up by 4% from its lows.  4% of the working public is not enough to completely derail the whole economy.  It is the actions of the other 90% who are employed.  So far they seem to be spending again since they are more optimistic then they were last year at this time.

    It will be a bumpy ride the next two years.  We will have corrections, but DT is correct.  It is not worth selling any aapl stock until 300.  Some of us will sell and buy a few times just in an attempt to time the market.  But in the long haul we know Apple will keep growing and surprise all of us with innovations.

         
  • Posted: 13 October 2009 02:58 AM #9

    omacvi - 13 October 2009 05:15 AM

    DT is correct.

    The best part of the post.  :wink:  LOL

    Actually, sponge makes a few good points. I expect INTC to perform well. Any modern business recovery is based on productivity gains and productivity is dependent on technology.

    Apple is a leader in personal technology and the company’s products assist us in living more productive lives. There’s no way IMHO for Apple to come out the loser over the next two to three years and perhaps the next five years. I’m bullish on AAPL. sponge is all correct in that nothing rides a straight line higher. I’m willing to wait it out and I expect to come out a winner.

         
  • Posted: 13 October 2009 06:12 AM #10

    Downunder - 13 October 2009 04:17 AM
    Mercel - 13 October 2009 04:05 AM

    How can Windows 7 be THAT great when it’s based on Vista? 

    And in case some of you are spooked over Walt Mossberg’s slobbering review of Windows 7, read this!

    Thanks for the link it makes a good point… 
    For the record i started off with a Macintosh SE 30 and OS: 7.5 and have never had the misfortune to use windows…

    The SE 30 was my first computer as well.  I’ve had to use both DOS then Windows all along the way for business.  And I remember the day when MS released Excel for the PC under early WIndows.  Excel was first on Apple, and I knew MS had copied a killer application.

         
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    Posted: 13 October 2009 10:22 AM #11

    “In our view, Apple is ‘THE’ undisputed growth name in tech with numerous catalysts on the horizon (e.g. China iPhone ramp, netbook/tablet launch, etc.) and no business model issues,” he said. “In addition, AAPL is currently benefiting from a positive mix shift (to higher margin iPhones/iPod touches).”

    When I start reading quotes like the one above from Brian Marshall with Broadpoint.AmTech,  I get a little more concerned about Apple’s stock but Apple the company is on a nice trajectory.  Apple has survived this recession amazingly well and the stock will be rewarded with a higher P/E by all the buying public, because Apple is a proven grower and we are moving out of recession and into a growth phase of the market cycle.  As far as the windows 7 effect

    AppleInsider has a nice chart on impact on Apple sales.

         
  • Posted: 13 October 2009 10:26 AM #12

    Thanks everyone who has replied so far its much appreciated, So My plan is still to carry on as normal and reassess when we are closer to the $300 mark..

    Omacvi and DT thanks for your thoughts,  I have always felt very comfortable with my investment even if I am all in APPL and feel it is a company whose products I understand and I have always trusted to innovate and grow..

    I guess i sometimes get nervous when Apple keep there cards so close to there chest.

         
  • Posted: 13 October 2009 10:50 AM #13

    pats - 13 October 2009 01:22 PM

    Apple has survived this recession amazingly well and the stock will be rewarded with a higher P/E by all the buying public, because Apple is a proven grower and we are moving out of recession and into a growth phase of the market cycle.

    Pats thanks for your reply, I agree with you about Apple but moving out of recession… It is a total unknown as far as I am concerned.
    The pace or strength of recovery could be much slower than anyone expects. I invest using New Zealand Dollars and from this side of the pond the American Dollar is very Weak and loosing ground rapidly ( along with the GBP ) both the UK and USA have seemingly printed too much new money to prop up there economies and now there currencies are worth a lot less than pre recession.

    please note that the NZD is now as popular as gold for trading and is way overvalued as a result.

         
  • Posted: 13 October 2009 12:23 PM #14

    The weak dollar may aid Apple’s results since it reports earnings in US dollars and non-domestic activity is coming close to 50% of reported revenue.

         
  • Posted: 13 October 2009 04:01 PM #15

    Downunder - 13 October 2009 01:26 PM

    Thanks everyone who has replied so far its much appreciated, So My plan is still to carry on as normal and reassess when we are closer to the $300 mark..

    Omacvi and DT thanks for your thoughts,  I have always felt very comfortable with my investment even if I am all in APPL and feel it is a company whose products I understand and I have always trusted to innovate and grow..

    I guess i sometimes get nervous when Apple keep there cards so close to there chest.

    As someone who’s also extremely long, and who’s ridden things up and down twice now in the past two years: I can understand those feelings…:-)

    ***

    I agree with DT and Sponge. And I’m feeling much, much better now than earlier this year.

    If Tommo were here (or is still listening), I’m sure he’d have a few supremely positive things to say as well.