FQ1 ‘10 Mac and iPhone Unit Sales

  • Posted: 22 October 2009 02:50 AM

    FQ1 really is the iPod quarter. But listening to the conference call, looking at past results and seeing growth in Europe, FQ1 should see sales of 3 million Macs and over 6 million iPhone units.

    Momentum in Europe, the iMac refresh and the bottoming of the economy should help Mac sales in the States.

    On the iPhone side, supply has remained constrained into this quarter. Channel inventory could expand, China sales begin October 30th at about a 1,000 points of purchase and 3GS availability will expand from 64 territories to 80 territories. The impact of competition this quarter might only impact the take up of alternatives should supplies remain constrained. I do expect another quarter of hefty iPhone sell-through as supply continues to meet up with demand. In other words, despite the increase in competition from new smartphone handsets, the iPhone should still rule the quarter.

    On the iPod side, we’re looking at 20 million units with a continued strong uptake of the iPod touch.

         
  • Posted: 22 October 2009 09:58 AM #1

    Let’s get some early unit estimates on the table. Don’t be shy. I’m looking for early rough estimates. Once again Apple’s guidance will prove to be no where near reality. My early unit estimates (posted above) will work out to another blow out quarter for revenue (GAAP and non-GAAP) and yet another impressive rise in eps over the prior year period.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 22 October 2009 10:38 AM #2

    I will go out on a limb and be the first to be ridiculed :wink: After DT of course.

    I’m looking at 20M ipod @ 156 3.12B
    Mac unit 800K desktop @ 1380 2.3M laptop @ 1265 4.013B
    Iphone 8M GAAP rev 2.629B

         
  • Posted: 22 October 2009 01:09 PM #3

    That’s an ambitious iPhone number but I like it.  grin

    My early WAG of over six million units is subject to revision especially after release of AT&T’s activation numbers this morning for the September quarter.

         
  • Posted: 23 October 2009 12:07 AM #4

    Let’s get some more estimates on the table.

    Active members:

    I’m sure you have 1st FQ numbers in mind. Post them in this topic.

         
  • Posted: 23 October 2009 09:13 PM #5

    I’m going to say that the iMac will top a million units and mac sales will exceed 3.2M.
    Apple is clearly going for market share gain with Mac.

         
  • Posted: 24 October 2009 04:23 PM #6

    FYI - slightly related - anecdotal evidence indicator - 27 inch iMac
    I heard from a friend who bought a 21.5 inch iMac in the Melbourne Australia Doncaster AppleStore (retail) that the 27 inch iMac had sold out on Saturday. She said all the new models only went on display on Thursday. She said she had not seen a TV ad for the new model on local television but that she did not watch a lot of television and could have missed a showing of it. And she did mention that it was priced nicely in local terms for once and that has not always been true of other Apple products, especially the Mac Pro and Xserve models.

         
  • Posted: 24 October 2009 04:44 PM #7

    A little more anecdotal evidence from The Times in London

    http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/technology/article6888201.ece

    “The Times has learnt that Orange will start selling the handset in a little over two weeks. More than 200,000 people have pre-registered to buy an iPhone through the operator in the past month.

    Orange declined to comment on its launch date or the exact number of pre-registrations that it has received.”

         
  • Posted: 24 October 2009 06:15 PM #8

    I just publicly published my early FQ1 unit sales estimates at Eventide.

    I’m expecting at this time little to no sequential drop in Mac unit sales and for over six million iPhones to be reported sold in the quarter.

         
  • Posted: 25 October 2009 11:37 AM #9

    The iWife and I went over to our neighborhood Apple store yesterday to take a look at the 27” behemoth.

    Impressive, it is.  The Concierge and Specialist both responded to my question by indicating that it was flying off the shelves.

    We did not buy one, but will be, maybe as early as today - but then again, maybe not.  Have a lot of leaves to deal with in the yard smile

    18 - 19 million iPods

    3.25 - 3.5 million iMacs

    8 - 9 million iPhones

    Gazillions of Apps

    All SWAGs

         
  • Posted: 25 October 2009 01:49 PM #10

    roni - 25 October 2009 02:37 PM

    18 - 19 million iPods

    3.25 - 3.5 million iMacs

    8 - 9 million iPhones

    Gazillions of Apps

    All SWAGs

    roni, I like your blog.  grin

    Even more, I’d like your estimate to become reality. I think you’re a bit low on the iPods and a bit high on both the Mac and iPhone projects. Though it would be quite nice if we came anywhere close to those numbers. Over 3 million Macs IMHO would be quite a challenge considering the anticipated constraints on iMac supply (flying the darn things in like crazy for delivery around the globe). There are a couple/few wildcards thrown into the iPhone mix - moving the iPhone’s availability to 80 territories by the end of the quarter (16 more than when the quarter started) including what could be a huge channel fill on the Chinese mainland with an anticipated 1,000 points of sale at release.

    But I think the leaves can wait. I think you will enjoy the new 27” iMac. Congratulations on your pending purchase.  grin

         
  • Posted: 25 October 2009 05:13 PM #11

    DawnTreader - 25 October 2009 04:49 PM
    roni - 25 October 2009 02:37 PM

    18 - 19 million iPods

    3.25 - 3.5 million iMacs

    8 - 9 million iPhones

    Gazillions of Apps

    All SWAGs

    roni, I like your blog.  grin

    Even more, I’d like your estimate to become reality. I think you’re a bit low on the iPods and a bit high on both the Mac and iPhone projects. Though it would be quite nice if we came anywhere close to those numbers. Over 3 million Macs IMHO would be quite a challenge considering the anticipated constraints on iMac supply (flying the darn things in like crazy for delivery around the globe). There are a couple/few wildcards thrown into the iPhone mix - moving the iPhone’s availability to 80 territories by the end of the quarter (16 more than when the quarter started) including what could be a huge channel fill on the Chinese mainland with an anticipated 1,000 points of sale at release.

    But I think the leaves can wait. I think you will enjoy the new 27” iMac. Congratulations on your pending purchase.  grin

    Thanks DT

    I moved some of your iPod numbers to iPhones, which accounts for those differences.  The China factor and the start of the move to multiple wireless partners played a role in my thinking.

    The Mac number comes from 3 things:  New iMacs, the new MacBook and increasing uptake in the enterprise.

    But, the fun of putting some numbers out there is getting some skin in the game smile

    There is no glory in counting coup from a distance.

    [ Edited: 25 October 2009 05:31 PM by roni ]      
  • Posted: 27 October 2009 08:25 AM #12

    This should give a bit of credence to Roni’s iPhone number.

    http://www.9to5mac.com/iphone_sales_climbing_higher

    Signature

    I don’t mind being wrong…,I just hate being wrong so FAST!

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 27 October 2009 10:25 AM #13

    BillH - 27 October 2009 11:25 AM

    This should give a bit of credence to Roni’s iPhone number.

    http://www.9to5mac.com/iphone_sales_climbing_higher

    I find it interesting that the camera module is mentioned in the Digitimes article

    OmniVision Technologies has notified clients to expect upcoming limited supply of CMOS image sensors (CIS) due to strong iPhone 3GS demand for the end-year holiday season, according to market sources. Tight supply is not expected to ease until late November 2009, the sources pointed out.

    Being a builder of conspiracy theories,  I suspected that supply was the reason the camera was pulled from the Itouch rather then a technical reason.  This little tidbit makes me believe it a bit more.  Sounds like the Christmas quarter would have exceeded Omnivisions production capability and the Iphone as the higher margin product got the priority from Apple and the camera was pulled from the Itouch.

         
  • Posted: 27 October 2009 05:32 PM #14

    Follow-up FYI - The 200,000 subscribers “pre-registering to buy” for the iPhone at Orange in the UK mentioned in The Times article previously posted above has increased to 500,000 in a BusinessWeek article focusing on the Orange CEO obtaining the right to sell the iPhone that appeared online.

    “We are already benefiting from the mystique and PR machine of Apple (AAPL),” he said.

    It is understood that half a million customers have already registered to snap up the device when it becomes available in the next few months. “I was gobsmacked how many people signed up straight away,” Mr. Alexander said.

    “This Christmas will be a key push in the smartphone market, with the iPhone 3GS at its core. Many more people will go and get them. If it wasn’t for the recession the smartphone revolution would have already happened.” Mr. Alexander said.

    http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/oct2009/gb20091023_838149.htm

    Anybody want to increase their estimates another 300,000? If Apple can get the parts to make them?