Apple Soars Behind iPhone 3GS Momentum

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    Posted: 27 October 2009 11:56 AM

    Via Investorplace

    The survey of 4,255 consumers shows strong growth continues in the smart phone market, with 39% of respondents now reporting they own a smart phone ? up 2-pts since June and nearly double the level of two years ago.

    Going forward, Apple’s share of planned smart phone purchases has settled back somewhat after the huge spike of excitement it enjoyed in June from the iPhone 3GS release. Note that its 8-pt drop between June and September (from 44% to 36%) is far less than the 22-pt drop we picked up a year ago after the iPhone 3G launch.

    What’s more, Apple remains the leader in terms of planned buying going forward ? 36% of those who plan to purchase a smart phone in the next 90 days say they’ll get an iPhone.

    Bottom Line
    In the horserace among manufacturers, the release of the iPhone 3GS has led to a big jump in smart phone market share for Apple and has placed them within striking distance of Research In Motion ? whose slew of models are still number one but have fallen to their lowest level in two years.

         
  • Posted: 28 October 2009 05:10 AM #1

    I like following the product cycles and think it’s always useful to note the way RIM and Apple play against each other in the chart.

    While Apple is always my biggest position, I often have RIM in my portfolio as well. Luckily, by playing the product cycle (and other factors too), I had absolutely $0 in RIM going into their recent earnings and the following trip to the woodshed. I have recently began cashing in on some of my Apple gains in my trading position and have been taking a few bites of RIM on dips. While I think I have product cycle (new Storm, new Bold) on my side, I’m also a bit worried because I think the Wall Street folks who have been so fond of RIM are finally starting to see Apple as the direction leader in smartphones. I’m also thinking that the new Droid will potentially hurt RIM more than Apple. Still, on valuation, general smartphone growth, product cycle, Verizon’s 2 for 1 being a real bonus during the holidays, and some real potential upside being unleashed when the enterprise finally sees a reason to start to upgrade their fleet of aging blackberries with the newer models, are reasons I see to buy some RIM.

    Anyone else making some other smartphone plays?

         
  • Posted: 28 October 2009 06:00 AM #2

    Verizon giving away Blackberries is on its face an admission that they cannot compete on features and function. Everybody knows. The market is said to be forward looking. As far as Apple is concerned the market seriously needs that cataract operation.

         
  • Posted: 28 October 2009 09:47 AM #3

    danthemason - 28 October 2009 09:00 AM

    Verizon giving away Blackberries is on its face an admission that they cannot compete on features and function. Everybody knows. The market is said to be forward looking. As far as Apple is concerned the market seriously needs that cataract operation.

    Very true, and we have to play the market we have, not the market we’d like.

    RE: Admission - I thought a huge tell last quarter was when the 2-for-1 stopped, and then restarted. I think it affected sales too much and needed the boost to keep product moving.

         
  • Posted: 28 October 2009 10:34 AM #4

    I understand that reality thing, been slapped around enough by it.

         
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    Posted: 28 October 2009 01:16 PM #5

    The biggest thing I noticed was Android. Where is Android? If you listen to my Geek friends Android was the biggest thing out there. I know T-Mobile at least was selling a model last year, I played with it. Maybe it hasn’t had time to set the world on fire but geez Palm is only ~7% and it’s on the list. I wonder where Android is sitting.

    Also conspicuous by its absence is anything running WindowsMobile.

    I know this is a list of Mfg, not OSs, but none of these three run either Android or WinMobile

    [ Edited: 28 October 2009 01:21 PM by geoduck ]

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  • Posted: 28 October 2009 05:10 PM #6

    cranium - 28 October 2009 08:10 AM

    Anyone else making some other smartphone plays?

    Very long AAPL.  Modest short positions in PALM and RIMM.  Might cover some of the PALM soon, just to take some profit.

    If I were bullish on the overall market, I would just be long AAPL with no shorts and maybe long a little GOOG (not really a smartphone play).