Selling the banks, buying AAPL 2011 Leaps.

I bought the dip to the 7-month uptrend from March which also coincides with filling the post-earnings gap up around $189.

Tight stop.

If the market holds together and shrugs off all this weak/strong Dollar related hysteria being whipped up by blowhards on TV desperate for a narrative to argue against stocks, I expect to see AAPL at $235 by January. If the market falls apart then I’ll sell and expect to buy back in the $170-180 area.

I went back in time and removed all my rebuys…......ahhh feels better not having giving back all the gains from the last 2 days…..and then I woke up 8(
Put a few more Dec 180 puts on before that really big drop, but have no clue how i need to play them now….add more if we regain 191…..sell for a profit, close the long calls for a slight loss and stand aside? Ahhh so many choices.

Curled up in fetal position.

Tommo_UK - 30 October 2009 12:14 PM

I bought the dip to the 7-month uptrend from March which also coincides with filling the post-earnings gap up around $189.

Tight stop.

If the market holds together and shrugs off all this weak/strong Dollar related hysteria being whipped up by blowhards on TV desperate for a narrative to argue against stocks, I expect to see AAPL at $235 by January. If the market falls apart then I’ll sell and expect to buy back in the $170-180 area.

I hope you have not missed the monster rally from Mar.  Otherwise, you would be the sucker to buy from guys like me who’ve sold into this Jan 06’s bull trap lookalike.  Buying at $170-$180 area is like buying at $63-$73 then, only to see it continue to decline to $122 (2006’s $50).  Recall the incredible bullishness of AFB in Jan 06?  Nonetheless, just in case you’re right, I’d many expected-to-lose Jan calls.

Bought big on $189 today, after having sold at $196.40 yesterday. 

On a side note, the new iMac is one helluva upgrade.  I’m getting one of the new Quad Pro machines when they’re released into the wild in November.  This quarter is going to be huge. 

If I miss a possible lower price later today/next week, it won’t be by much, I believe.

Very intuitive topic Douglas well done as you managed to pry Tommo from his bunker. In the 6 years of trading Apple I have never been this long a time in mostly cash (since tuesday) This morning I bought AAPL puts for the second time in my life (NOV 200’S for $8,10 and sold them 90 minutes later for $13.10) I still have some LEAP 2011 spreads but am not going long again for a while as I think this market is headed down for a while and taking the fruit company with it. 4 days counting mostly in cash and it feels comfy and this is mostly dumb luck…

I’m ready to sell all my Jan 10 $200 at a (hopefully not more than) 50% loss if it breaks its 50SMDA decisively (currently at $183.17)...

For the first time I hope Mace’s alternative count is wrong

Have a small Jan $190 call position I bought
Have a small Dec $180 put position - bought before the day before Oct. earnings report

Have core shares.

Up a whole lot for the year.  May liquidate options and hunker down for awhile <shrug>

Mace - 30 October 2009 12:49 PM

I hope you have not missed the monster rally from Mar.  Otherwise, you would be the sucker to buy from guys like me who’ve sold into this

Sold out most of my Jan 10’s post-earnings and paid off almost all of my loans, credit cards etc - slashed my monthly outgoings by about $3000/month as a result so feeling quite happy, even if quite out of the market now, so no I didn’t miss out on the rally, but I did mostly just sit on my hands through it waiting to get to $185. Was glad I waited til $203 tho
Purely playing speculatively and counterintuitively now. Max’d my profits and took them so now I’m at virtually no risk bar a few bucks if I get stopped out should we not regain the 8-month uptrend Monday or Tuesday.

Tommo_UK - 01 November 2009 12:30 PM

Mace - 30 October 2009 12:49 PM

I hope you have not missed the monster rally from Mar.  Otherwise, you would be the sucker to buy from guys like me who’ve sold into this

Sold out most of my Jan 10’s post-earnings and paid off almost all of my loans, credit cards etc - slashed my monthly outgoings by about $3000/month as a result so feeling quite happy, even if quite out of the market now, so no I didn’t miss out on the rally, but I did mostly just sit on my hands through it waiting to get to $185. Was glad I waited til $203 tho
Purely playing speculatively and counterintuitively now. Max’d my profits and took them so now I’m at virtually no risk bar a few bucks if I get stopped out should we not regain the 8-month uptrend Monday or Tuesday.

Tommo it is so great to hear from you.  Hope you stick around.

I sold from 202 to 199 and then started to buy back at 195 and then again two times at 188 at end of the day Friday.

Hope to buy more in the low 180’s if we keep dropping.  But only after two days to make sure we don’t drop further.

Covered the short leg (Nov 200’s) of a 2:1 ratio call (bull) spread on Friday, which I had entered before the earnings report. The long leg (Nov 190’s) still has a little profit after this repurchase, but now I’m exposed.

I almost made the mistake of repurchasing these a couple of weeks ago (at 4 times the price I paid on Friday) from fear of the big upside risk (*sigh* I should’ve sold the long leg then!), but that didn’t last too long and somehow my original prediction of a consolidation at these levels came through. Now that I’m exposed, I hope 185 holds or I’ll probably start losing on the 190’s.

Shares position remains untouched, but if we go below 175 I might sell some shares to fund a big position in 2011 leaps (although I’m not sure why I not just do it now… anyone know the risk/reward of now vs. waiting for under 175?).

deagol - 03 November 2009 08:39 PM

... Shares position remains untouched, but if we go below 175 I might sell some shares to fund a big position in 2011 leaps ...

What strike price?

Mace - 04 November 2009 01:31 AM

deagol - 03 November 2009 08:39 PM

... Shares position remains untouched, but if we go below 175 I might sell some shares to fund a big position in 2011 leaps ...

What strike price?

Looking at the current premiums, I feel like near-the-money strikes are most promising, no further than 170 or 210. I guess if I waited for 175 I would be looking at 150 to 200 strikes.

I think the risk of waiting for 175 is that the stock ignores my penny-pinching and just rallies from here. In that case I’d have to scramble to jump onto the leaps at around 200-215 (depending on the timing of the move).

deagol - 04 November 2009 10:25 AM

Mace - 04 November 2009 01:31 AM

deagol - 03 November 2009 08:39 PM

... Shares position remains untouched, but if we go below 175 I might sell some shares to fund a big position in 2011 leaps ...

What strike price?

Looking at the current premiums, I feel like near-the-money strikes are most promising, no further than 170 or 210. I guess if I waited for 175 I would be looking at 150 to 200 strikes.

I think the risk of waiting for 175 is that the stock ignores my penny-pinching and just rallies from here. In that case I’d have to scramble to jump onto the leaps at around 200-215 (depending on the timing of the move).

Thanks.  My plan is to buy LEAPS 11 slightly OTM upon completion of wave 2 i.e. between $122-$178.