My unscientific methods are pointing toward an excellent 1Q for Mac sales.  The new iMacs are selling well and the 27” seems to be supply constrained.  Likewise the new Macbooks.  If not for the terrible macro economic background, we might even see a return to the days of 30% growth.  But as things are, I am thinking low 20s.

My early line is for 3.15 MM shipments for the December quarter.

Anybody else feeling this level of optimism?

I’m in at 3 million units for now, with perhaps an upward revision before the end of the quarter.

As I said on a previous thread
I’m looking at 20M ipod @ 156 3.12B
Mac unit 800K desktop @ 1380 2.3M laptop @ 1265 4.013B
Iphone 8M GAAP rev 2.629B.

Just saw this on EETimes for Iphone

Daniel Amir, an analyst at Lazard Capital Markets, on Apple’s iPhone: ‘‘Our latest channel checks indicate that October iPhone shipments increased 80 percent-plus over September levels, reaching a historical high at 5.4 million units. We believe that 1.1 million units were iPhone 3G and 4.3 million units were iPhone 3GS. iPhone shipments are projected to drop 40 percent in November (month-over-month) followed by another 14 percent month-over-month drop in December, in line with seasonality.

Total 4Q ‘09 iPhone shipments are likely to come in at (about) 11 million units which equates to (about) 40 percent quarter-over-quarter growth and about 160 percent year-over-year growth. For 1Q10, initial projections target shipments of 7.2 million units, a 35 percent drop quarter-over-quarter and a 90 percent increase year-over-year. Overall, sell-through for 4Q for Apple should be in the 7.5 million unit range, which suggests that the build for China was significant.’‘

pats - 16 November 2009 11:44 AM

As I said on a previous thread
I’m looking at 20M ipod @ 156 3.12B
Mac unit 800K desktop @ 1380 2.3M laptop @ 1265 4.013B
Iphone 8M GAAP rev 2.629B.

I like your numbers. 

I’m in at 3 million Macs for the quarter and I do like your 8 million iPhones. But I’m not ready to go there. For now I’m looking at north of 6 million units.

For those who didn’t catch it AppleInsider has Gene Munster’s note.

Sales figures for the month of October show that Apple is on track to meet Wall Street expectations for its first financial quarter, which includes the busy holiday season.

But given that nearly 50 percent of Mac sales in the three-month frame take place in the month of December, it is still too early to tell with certainty how Apple will perform, Gene Munster, analyst with Piper Jaffray, told investors in a note released Wednesday afternoon. Retail sales data from NPD Group for the month of October suggests that Apple will sell between 2.8 million and 2.9 million Macs in the December quarter; Wall Street consensus is said to be about 2.85 million.

Munster said that although the October numbers were only up 7 percent year-over-year, that month also included the toughest segment of the quarter, as it was in October 2008 that Apple released its new aluminum MacBook Pros. He believes the addition of new desktop Macs late in October this year will be a key driver in boosting sales as the calendar year closes out.

iPod sales in October were said to be down 11 percent year-over-year. But again, Munster noted that more than half of iPods sold in the December quarter occur during the month of December.

I expect iPod sales to be down 9% to 10% this year, coming in at about 20 million units. That should come as no surprise. The question is how many iPod touch units will be sold in the quarter. Due to the array of iPod models, I don’t think straight unit number comparisons are meaningful. One iPod touch sale is worth several shuffle sales, for example, in terms of the benefit to the Apple eco-system and in particular to app store sales.

Three grandsons will get touches this season as nanos get pushed to the back of the drawer.

My one sister in-law called and was looking at getting touches for her two teenage sons.  I suspect the touch will replace the DSi in the stockings of many tweeners and teens.  Kids want iphones but many parents like me don’t want the monthly $30 data bill.  The touch will serve as a suitable substitute.

pats - 19 November 2009 07:47 AM

My one sister in-law called and was looking at getting touches for her two teenage sons.  I suspect the touch will replace the DSi in the stockings of many tweeners and teens.  Kids want iphones but many parents like me don’t want the monthly $30 data bill.  The touch will serve as a suitable substitute.

Chances are the bulk of the iPod sales (more than 50%) will occur after Thanksgiving Day. There’s no shortage, there’s no sales price inducement to buy earlier and for the cost many will wait until closer to Christmas to avoid payment for the gifts before Christmas. This follows a typical sales pattern.

I’m discounting any unit sales estimates for the quarter based on October sales alone.

pats - 18 November 2009 04:54 PM

For those who didn’t catch it AppleInsider has Gene Munster’s note.

Sales figures for the month of October show that Apple is on track to meet Wall Street expectations for its first financial quarter, which includes the busy holiday season.

[...] Wall Street consensus is said to be about 2.85 million.

I respect Munster’s work, and I recognize that I am at the extreme with my optimism.  But I think Windows 7 is going to boost Mac sales this Q.  The new iMacs are hot.  The notebooks remain hot.  And Apple cannot make the new mouse fast enough.

Feels like a a great quarter for Mac.  (Like I said, not scientific.)

I think moving appreciably above 3 million units the quarter is a challenge. At 3 million units the company will experience a 25% YOY increase in unit shipments which would be an impressive outcome, the economy considered. GM at PK is expecting between 2.8 and 2.9 million units. I expect slightly above that in performance with desktops (the new iMac) doing well in the mix.

DawnTreader - 21 November 2009 02:55 PM

I think moving appreciably above 3 million units the quarter is a challenge. At 3 million units the company will experience a 25% YOY increase in unit shipments which would be an impressive outcome, the economy considered. GM at PK is expecting between 2.8 and 2.9 million units. I expect slightly above that in performance with desktops (the new iMac) doing well in the mix.

My chart shows last year’s 1Q at 2.52.  Thus, 3.0 would be just under 19%.  But that is not to disagree with your broader statement; I admit to wild optimism.

capablanca - 21 November 2009 06:38 PM

DawnTreader - 21 November 2009 02:55 PM

I think moving appreciably above 3 million units the quarter is a challenge. At 3 million units the company will experience a 25% YOY increase in unit shipments which would be an impressive outcome, the economy considered. GM at PK is expecting between 2.8 and 2.9 million units. I expect slightly above that in performance with desktops (the new iMac) doing well in the mix.

My chart shows last year’s 1Q at 2.52.  Thus, 3.0 would be just under 19%.  But that is not to disagree with your broader statement; I admit to wild optimism.

You are correct. 

Think about the quarter for a moment. I think last year Apple introduced a restyled laptop line that boosted sales following the back-to-school quarter. That 2.52 unit sales figure represented a 9% YOY increase in sales. Coming in at about a 20% increase in units sales with strong iMac sales in the mix would represent a superb performance.

I expect a new line of Mac Pros soon after the 1st of the year. While Mac Pros will not deliver the unit sales the line has produced in the past (thanks to a powerful iMac line), Mac Pros will deliver high margins and benefit what has become Apple’s weakest fiscal quarter of the year.

DawnTreader - 21 November 2009 08:01 PM

You are correct. 

Think about the quarter for a moment. I think last year Apple introduced a restyled laptop line that boosted sales following the back-to-school quarter. That 2.52 unit sales figure represented a 9% YOY increase in sales. Coming in at about a 20% increase in units sales with strong iMac sales in the mix would represent a superb performance.

I expect a new line of Mac Pros soon after the 1st of the year. While Mac Pros will not deliver the unit sales the line has produced in the past (thanks to a powerful iMac line), Mac Pros will deliver high margins and benefit what has become Apple’s weakest fiscal quarter of the year.

DT, what you write is logical, reasonable, and grounded in what we know of the numbers so far. 

What I have to go on is mostly just how it feels to me.  When traveling I try to visit every BBY I can.  I talk to the Geek squad and the BBY kids in the computer department.  If there is an Apple employee in the store, I might talk to him or her.  But mostly I just observe.  Things seem to have really picked up in the last few weeks.  There is a also a building enthusiasm among the BBY people for Apple, especially in the stores where Apple has an employee.  Add to that the increased traffic due to the people who have been waiting to see Windows 7.  We have also seen from the concall transcripts that Apple Store traffic has been growing, but not same store sales.  This could be evidence of pent up demand.

There is a macro economic YOY comparison that should help too:  Last year there was enormous uncertainty and fear.  Lehman and Bear had just happened.  Today we have a lousy economy, to be sure, but sentiment compared to a year ago must be more favorable.

As Morris Alpert wrote: “Feelings, nothing more than feelings…”

capablanca - 21 November 2009 09:57 PM

As Morris Alpert wrote: “Feelings, nothing more than feelings…”

I was going to bust your chops for quoting lyrics from Feelings on a Saturday evening and then realized my Saturday night is just as exciting because I’m reading this stuff!  Here’s to falling asleep soon (happens when you have a 3 and 4 year old I guess)....

I’ve reiterated my Mac unit estimate for the quarter at Eventide.