DawnTreader - 25 November 2009 12:08 AM

I’ve reiterated my Mac unit estimate for the quarter at Eventide.

Good post, DT.  Your analysis is concise and cogent.

capablanca - 25 November 2009 02:07 AM

DawnTreader - 25 November 2009 12:08 AM

I’ve reiterated my Mac unit estimate for the quarter at Eventide.

Good post, DT.  Your analysis is concise and cogent.

But, but, but advertising the Droid on your site? This is where Google ads fail.

rattyuk - 25 November 2009 07:25 AM

But, but, but advertising the Droid on your site? This is where Google ads fail.

That’s just Google AdNonSense. 

capablanca - 16 November 2009 12:03 AM

...Anybody else feeling this level of optimism?

I’ll keep you company with my current estimate of 3.18M Macs (subject to revision).

deagol - 26 November 2009 01:37 AM

capablanca - 16 November 2009 12:03 AM

...Anybody else feeling this level of optimism?

I’ll keep you company with my current estimate of 3.18M Macs (subject to revision).

That would be a nice sequential unit sales gain coming off an impressive back-to-school quarter. Are you seeing strength in the MacBook Pros, the new iMacs or both?

I suspect laptop unit sales remained strong into the start of the quarter.

DawnTreader - 26 November 2009 11:07 AM

That would be a nice sequential unit sales gain coming off an impressive back-to-school quarter. Are you seeing strength in the MacBook Pros, the new iMacs or both?

I suspect laptop unit sales remained strong into the start of the quarter.

No idea, really. I’m not really “seeing” anything concrete (other than my brother getting a 27” iMac to replace his old G5 quad Power Mac), so it’s just a WAG.

Actually, I use an incredibly convoluted formula to derive this based on my iPod+iPhone estimates and the PC industry numbers… but it’s still a WAG. The number that’s spitting out right now is 3,184,702 (if you want there’s even fractions of units!). 

New estimate from JP Morgan

“Our conversations with industry contacts suggest that the Mac shipment levels have improved over the last two weeks,” Moskowitz said. He raised his unit estimate to 3.29 million from his prior view of 3.17 million.

Looks like the IDC and Gartner estimates show nice growth in the US for Apple via Appleinsider

Preliminary U.S. PC Vendor Unit Shipment Estimates for 4Q09 (Thousands of Units) | Source: IDC

Preliminary U.S. PC Vendor Unit Shipment Estimates for 4Q09 (Thousands of Units) | Source: Gartner

If we assume the same growth rates outside US then 31% YOY growth overall we are at 3.306M and for 23% 3.104M .

These numbers look almost too good to be true.  If we increased Mac sales by 35%, we are looking at 3.3 million Macs.

Mac shipments over 3.053 million units would represent record sales. Although the earnings call will be overshadowed a bit by the pending special event, the quarter looks to be impressive for all major product units.

DawnTreader - 13 January 2010 10:00 PM

Mac shipments over 3.053 million units would represent record sales. Although the earnings call will be overshadowed a bit by the pending special event, the quarter looks to be impressive for all major product units.

Looking forward into the next year, I’m wondering if the momentum in increasing Mac sales can be sustained.  There are several threads in the economy that I think will serve to constrain demand for Macs; all of them are obvious, but can bear restating.

First, Macs appeal to the high end of the market.  These days, even the high end consumers are nervous about keeping their jobs, and the major trend toward conspicuous thrift will continue for at least several years.

Second, dumb netbooks are all that most people need for home use.  I use a my Macs for Photoshop and Lightroom and InDesign, but most people use the home computer for Facebook and movies and surfing and tweets.  They don’t need more than a $300 computer.  Anecdotally, there is increasing demand for netbooks among college students who are being squeezed by costs; previously they would have bought MacBooks.

Third, creative professions are being hammered by the recession and, more importantly, by changes in behavior wrought by the new media.  I am a professional photographer; all around me, photographers are being wrung dry by loss of staff positions, reduced payments by publications, magazines ceasing publication (National Geographic Adventure, a magazine that bought some of my photos, is the most recent example), a dramatically reduced advertising market, and the microstock model of photography which sometimes pays a photographer 20 cents for international use.  There is a huge shakeout among other professionals who have always used Macs:  journalists and graphic designers face some of the same pressures as photographers.

Fourth, the rise of a new “good enough” operating system from Microsoft, which equals Mac OSX for most people at a much lower initial cost since it comes on cheaper machines.

My conclusion is that the Mac market expansion may be a victim of changes in the economy, and it may flatline or decline from here.  Any thoughts?

firestorm - 13 January 2010 10:35 PM

My conclusion is that the Mac market expansion may be a victim of changes in the economy, and it may flatline or decline from here.  Any thoughts?

There is no doubt the economy impacts Apple. That is why Mac Shipments only increased 9% last year at this time and proceeded to decrease 3% and 4% the following quarters when compared to 2008.

However, when one only has 8% market share, the potential is still huge for sustained growth.  The iPHone is created a Halo affect right now.  When 50% of Mac purchasers are new to the platform, it is easy to see how we have reached a tipping point. 

Every PC user reaches a point where they must decide to upgrade their computer.  If 80% chose to get a cheap PC, that leave 20% who may decide to pay for a better product (ie Mac).  With each iPod sold, and each iPhone sold, and each store opened, and each new college kid going into college, there is plenty of potential future Mac users who because of the those reasons are in a better position to buy a Mac.

Also there are still millions out there that have fully functional Macs that could be upgradeable.  I think the next major OS with a touch screen UI and a multitude of increased uses that go beyond surfing the web, may usher in a major new rush of Mac Sales.  Every year Apple comes out with a killer Mac.  In 2007 it was the new iMac.  In 2008 it was the new MacBooks Pro, and in 2009 it was the killer MacBook, and they ended the year with another killer iMac.  That cycle will continue and each time the user base gets bigger and bigger.

I think the economy in 2010 will be much better then 2009.  So Apple is growing Mac shipments at 35% in a bad economy one has to wonder why.  I think the answer is found in the reasons mentioned above.

Apple is growing earnings with many items not just Macs.  But everyday that passes they will have more stores and more name recognition from all the other products that they sell.  Barring a total meltdown in the economy there is no reason for Apple not to grow Mac sales at least 15% to 20% next year.

firestorm - 13 January 2010 10:35 PM

Looking forward into the next year, I’m wondering if the momentum in increasing Mac sales can be sustained.  There are several threads in the economy that I think will serve to constrain demand for Macs; all of them are obvious, but can bear restating.

Looking at Apple’s core markets Mac unit sales have a strong foundation for continuing growth in sales. The college market is strong and the retail market for $1,000+ PCs also looks impressive. Europe holds big potential for the next three years for further market share gains. I’m forecasting 20% YOY unit sales gains for the remainder of the fiscal year. Anything above 20% growth in the December quarter is icing on the proverbial cake.

Apple’s retail presence in Europe is growing and I consider Europe the geographic territory to deliver the most impressive results through the September quarter.

But Mac sales is not the revenue and earning driver at the moment. It’s the iPhone and to a lesser extent the iPod touch through its contributions to building Apple’s services revenue stream.

If Mac sales can sustain a 20% YOY unit sales gain pace for the next few quarters while the iPhone builds its global presence and leadership, little more should be asked.

I have entered the data provided by Gartner for Apple’s US sales (estimates) and compared with Apple’s reported global sales, compared the YoY growth rate on a graph and added line-of-best-fit. Gartner predicts a US sales increase of 24%, which could translate to a 25-26% global sales increase for Apple.

awcabot - 14 January 2010 11:53 AM

Gartner predicts a US sales increase of 24%, which could translate to a 25-26% global sales increase for Apple.

A 24% US unit sales gain would be impressive and further the benchmark of record results. Over 3 million Macs, over 20 million iPods and over 9 million iPhones sold in one quarter ought to satisfy the revenue and earnings appetite of even the most demanding investors.