Bulls:  Louis Navieller, Ken Fisher, ...

Bears: John Hussman, Bob Prechter, Glenn Neely, Meredith Whitney, Gary Shilling, David Rosenberg, Marc Faber, ...

Around Jun-Jul, bears forecasted that market had peaked and would fall by 50% by year end.  After consolidating for about a month, market resumed rallying and had broken above 1100 briefly.  These bears had since readjusted their targets and insisted that they are right.  Most bears think 1100 is the peak and the second dip has started.  Could they be correct this time?

Btw, S&P has yet to recover 61.8% (about 1230) of its decline from 07’s peak.  Hence, from the EW perspective, S&P could be in a B-wave (up), that would be followed by a C-wave (down).  Breaking above 1230 would mean ABC could be 123 of an impulse.

Edit: Added David Rosenberg.  There are more bears than bulls.  Contrarians would be bullish.

Edit: Added Marc Faber.

Mace - you may like this little tidbit I recently read.  A study took two groups of people.  Group 1 was asked to take a nickel and flip it 100 times and record each result.  Group 2 was asked to imagine flipping a nickel and again right down each result.

The result, Group 1 would often yield 15 or higher heads in a row while Group 2 would see no more than 4 heads in a row.  This falls in the concept of gambler’s fallacy where every time you toss a coin the odds of a heads are 50/50 yet after a few heads even though the odds stay the same the gambler anticipates a reverse that is not more probable.

runedge - 20 November 2009 10:22 AM

Mace - you may like this little tidbit I recently read.  A study took two groups of people.  Group 1 was asked to take a nickel and flip it 100 times and record each result.  Group 2 was asked to imagine flipping a nickel and again right down each result.

The result, Group 1 would often yield 15 or higher heads in a row while Group 2 would see no more than 4 heads in a row.  This falls in the concept of gambler’s fallacy where every time you toss a coin the odds of a heads are 50/50 yet after a few heads even though the odds stay the same the gambler anticipates a reverse that is not more probable.

Thank.  Is the reason why I try not to have an opinion of the direction of the market.  Just interpret what indicators said.

You can add David Rosenberg to the Uber-Bear list.

M

Marc Faber qualifies as a bear.  Peter Schiff, not so much a bear on the stock market, but very much on the U.S. economy.

capablanca - 21 November 2009 06:30 PM

Marc Faber qualifies as a bear.  Peter Schiff, not so much a bear on the stock market, but very much on the U.S. economy.

Short term Marc Faber was bullish on banks.  Nearly fell off my seat when I heard him say that (think it was on Bloomberg a few days ago).