Now that we’ve moved past mid-quarter I’m working on a serious revision of my iPhone unit sales forecast. It’s tricky considering the continuing global roll out and the popularity of the 3GS model.

Last quarter (Q4 2009) Apple shipped about 7.4 million iPhones leaving the channel inventory relatively unchanged at about 2 million units. The year prior the company sold 6.892 million iPhones. Though this represented only a 7% increase in the reported number of iPhones sold, sell through was significantly higher due to channel inventory remaining virtually unchanged.

In Q1 2009 Apple shipped 4.363 million iPhone units representing a huge gain over the prior year (88%) due to the release of the original 3G iPhone but representing a sequential drop of 37%  from Q4 2008 to Q1 2009.

So what should we expect for Q1 2010 for iPhone shipments? Absent a new model being released early next year there’s room to expand channel inventory (which is necessary to supply the significant increase in global selling points) and sales growth due to an increasing number of territories receiving the 3Gs iPhone for the first time.

I have modeled for 8m units that said we have some data points which lead me to think that may be light.  We have new launches in China, S Korea, Qatar, Isreal and multi carrier in the UK additionally the Christmas quarter usually see a QoQ bump.  Additionally I had posted that eetimes article which said the supply Chain moved 5.4m units in Oct.  Many of the units are in carrier inventory for the Christmas build so Apple will recognize them as sales.  Should be interesting.

pats - 22 November 2009 11:09 AM

I have modeled for 8m units that said we have some data points which lead me to think that may be light.  We have new launches in China, S Korea, Qatar, Isreal and multi carrier in the UK additionally the Christmas quarter usually see a QoQ bump.  Additionally I had posted that eetimes article which said the supply Chain moved 5.4m units in Oct.  Many of the units are in carrier inventory for the Christmas build so Apple will recognize them as sales.  Should be interesting.

I’m not ready to move to 8 million units ...yet.

Factoring in channel inventory expansion is one challenge in the mix.

DT

Need to add another 15K to your estimate

JoongAngDaily

Early orders for the long-awaited Apple iPhone have lived up to the hype, with reservations for 15,000 units already submitted to mobile operator KT since it began accepting applications for the phones earlier today.

Another post on this quarters Iphone numbers from the Business Insider

No one but pats is offering to put their unit estimates for the quarter on the line?

DawnTreader - 25 November 2009 12:11 AM

No one but pats is offering to put their unit estimates for the quarter on the line?

Alright I’ll put my 8.2M on the line, subject to revision.

deagol - 26 November 2009 01:26 AM

DawnTreader - 25 November 2009 12:11 AM

No one but pats is offering to put their unit estimates for the quarter on the line?

Alright I’ll put my 8.2M on the line, subject to revision.

I love hearing from Deagol, Turley, Andy et.al. with their estimates.  I have no idea how they do it but at least they’ve been closer to right than anyone else.  Having said that…,I think this is the year they are off and it starts to spike.  Remember the 20 million unit iPod Christmas?  If memory serves (which it doesn’t)    the closest estimates were around 14 or 15 million.  I don’t remember any reports of the factories ramping up or any other indicator of what was about to take place.  So…,I’m going with 9-10.

BillH - 26 November 2009 01:46 AM

  So…,I’m going with 9-10.

Love ya, Bill. 

DawnTreader - 26 November 2009 10:43 AM

BillH - 26 November 2009 01:46 AM

  So…,I’m going with 9-10.

Love ya, Bill. 

You only love me for my $...,so shallow.    The real implication of this is that parents all over the globe will once again surrender to the wanton desires of their offspring.  Capitulation ain’t just a concept for Wall Street.

BillH - 26 November 2009 11:04 AM

The real implication of this is that parents all over the globe will once again surrender to the wanton desires of their offspring.  Capitulation ain’t just a concept for Wall Street.

What about parents giving in to the wanton desires of their own? 

I’m challenged on this estimate for a number of reasons. We really don’t have a prior year reference as a meaningful starting point, there’s obviously growth in the channel supply globally to add to the numbers with the big question of non-domestic activations. Anecdotally, the EU looks encouraging for the quarter. But how do the numbers add up?

Last year there was a sequential drop in unit sales. I’m trying to step back into history to see if any of the factors that impacted unit sales last year are still valid today. The 3GS is a much different product than the 3G and that product is much different than the original iPhone it replaced.

There is no reason to take my estimate seriously from a technical (or any other) standpoint.  The monthly fee for data alone has (and will) keep many away.  We’ve been down this road before though.  The monthly cable/satellite bill was a bitter pill to swallow for many and the move to paid for television was slower than many would have speculated.  But…,when it turned…$  I have nothing but my gut that tells me the time is approaching when many will bite the bullet and get on board.  Christmas seems like the logical time for this as a way to rationalize the total cost of ownership.  The total cost of ownership will be easier to swallow as a Christmas present than it would have been viewed only as a phone acquisition.  Cell phones.  The gift that keeps on costing. 

I’m estimating 8 million units in the quarter. Forecasting iPhone unit sales is the challenge for this quarter. 

Looks like the iPhone launch in South Korea is creating a sensation. See here.

Apple saw 60,000 first-day iPhone sales in S.Korea

SEOUL - Apple has seen about 60,000 units of iPhones sold in South Korea on its debut on Saturday, which is pretty good as the nation has already reported 400,000 smartphones sales in the third quarter.

Well, I thought the above were pretty good numbers, but did you see the estimates put out by Brian Marshall?

“11.3 million iPhones, 3.3 million Macs, and 19.8 million iPods”

]http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/09/12/09/apple_stock_decline_called_normal_rebound_expected_by_year_end.html]

Wow, those are impressive numbers! It’s hard to believe he’s got a price target of $235 will sales like those. Anyone wish to revise their targets now?