Dan Butterfield got some updated stats on iphone China sales. LINK to iphonasia.com

100,000 in the first 40 days. Not as good as most hoped for but a lot better than what most people had been saying.

100k units in the first 40 days in my view is an impressive number. Forget the metrics on sales relative to the nation’s aggregate population (they don’t work) and consider the robust unauthorized sales channels. I cautioned early on China is a long-term play, not one to bring rich and immediate payoffs in terms fast revenue and earnings growth.

Also remember that the sell through may be 100K but pre-purchase by China Unicom for inventory could be significantly higher.  The numbers guesstimate for South Korea look outstanding and we launch in Israel on Friday.  Overall should be a great quarter for Iphone.  According to Barclays the Ipod is trailing last years sales numbers but the ASP is up.

Weekly iPod Data Unit Sales Trend Improves but Still Down Y/Y: NPD US data for the week of 11/28/09 indicates that Apple’s iPod unit sales declined 9% y/y (vs. -12% y/y and -21% two weeks before, respectively). QTD iPod shipments are down 16% y/y. The market decline for the week of 11/28/09 was 23% y/y (-16% and -23% the previous two weeks respectively). While weekly sales continue to trend down y/y, the positive is that the overall iPod ASP remains up y/y. iPod ASPs were up 7% y/y the week of 11/28 backing our checks that the iPod touch had a big showing on Black Friday and that momentum continues. We believe demand for iPod touch SKUs is also driving increased paid App downloads which could help revenue in Apple’s “Other Music” segment. iPod average ASPs QTD are up 5%. Note that NPD’s weekly data is a small subset of its monthly data and weekly US NPD data includes Apple store sales but not Apple.com

Quarterly iPhone numbers are important.  I think the report in January will show over 9 million iPhones during the quarter.

I am very interested in the combined number of mobile internet devices Apple sells.  For now that includes the Touch and the iPhone.  Hopefully, before the next quarter is over, it will include the tablet/whatever.

Establishing dominance in the mobile internet platform world whilst the competitors fragment the rest of that market is what I am looking for.

I’m thinking 2010 could be huge in terms of that goal due, in large part, to:

1) Multiple carriers in more countries

2) China and Korea

3) the Tablet

roni - 11 December 2009 09:00 AM

Quarterly iPhone numbers are important.  I think the report in January will show over 9 million iPhones during the quarter.

That would represent a blow out quarter. I’m staying with 8 million units for now, but your number is close to Gene Munster’s 9.3 million units.

roni - 11 December 2009 09:00 AM

I am very interested in the combined number of mobile internet devices Apple sells.  For now that includes the Touch and the iPhone.  Hopefully, before the next quarter is over, it will include the tablet/whatever.

That’s the goal - extend the reach of the iPhone OS while strengthening the eco-system for Apple - more units in the market means more developers attracted to the program and more accessories makers finding an attractive market.

roni - 11 December 2009 09:00 AM

Establishing dominance in the mobile internet platform world whilst the competitors fragment the rest of that market is what I am looking for.

I call it the implosion of the PC market and the extinction of the PC-centric paradigm.

With a tablet device added to the product mix it should yet another year of record revenue and earnings.

Appleinsider has an article forecasting 10 million iPhones in the current quarter

roni - 14 December 2009 09:11 AM

Appleinsider has an article forecasting 10 million iPhones in the current quarter

Beat em to it…,but at least they have a shot at hard data.  I only have my slightly expanding holiday gut.

Having said that…,I think this is the year they are off and it starts to spike.  Remember the 20 million unit iPod Christmas?  If memory serves (which it doesn’t)  the closest estimates were around 14 or 15 million.  I don’t remember any reports of the factories ramping up or any other indicator of what was about to take place.  So…,I’m going with 9-10.

Nobody even batted an eye at Brian Marshall wild call of 11.3 millions iPhones?? Where do you think he gets a number like that? Channel fill in China and Korea? Additional carriers and associated fill in Canada and Europe? Santa focusing on iPhones for good people everywhere?

Personally, I think we’re gonna see unbelievable numbers for the iPod Touch if what I see at work is any indication. I’ve had many co-workers (who I thought had little interest) all ask for Touch advice as presents for their children. Maybe even expect better than estimated ASP as 100% of this group has opted for the 32GB versions given the advantages. I’ve done my part, have you seen anything similar?

Ditto that at work and with friends.

deagol - 26 November 2009 01:26 AM

Alright I’ll put my 8.2M on the line, subject to revision.

So, I’ve revised my estimate to 8.65M as published recently on PED’s blog.

deagol - 05 January 2010 08:14 AM

deagol - 26 November 2009 01:26 AM

Alright I’ll put my 8.2M on the line, subject to revision.

So, I’ve revised my estimate to 8.65M as published recently on PED’s blog.

Deagol is prime time again. Listed with Munster and Wu. Great job Deagol. I know you put a lot of effort in your numbers.