AAPL Intraday Updates

  • Posted: 22 November 2009 06:04 PM

    Monday, Monday…

    [ Edited: 28 November 2009 02:36 PM by DawnTreader ]      
  • Posted: 22 November 2009 07:44 PM #1

    I think we’re going up.  Whether it’s the start of a Santa Claus rally remains to be seen.  But I’m hopeful.

         
  • Posted: 22 November 2009 10:06 PM #2

    Monday

    R4         207.25
      midpoint   205.93
    R3       204.62
      midpoint   203.30
    R2       201.99
      midpoint   201.47
    R1       200.95
      midpoint   200.16
    PP       199.36
      midpoint   198.84
    S1       198.32
      midpoint   197.53
    S2       196.73
      midpoint   195.41
    S3       194.10
      midpoint   192.78
    S4       191.47

         
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    Posted: 22 November 2009 10:51 PM #3

    Didn’t want to create a new thread for this - just read about it on CNBC.  So you pick up 40 million in MBS debt with a par value of 100 million.  You contact the borrower and say hey, I’m a nice guy, I just saved some money buying your note so let me work with you.  You agree to work through an FHA guarantee mortgage, we’ll drop your total debt (because we are nice) and your debt service will look a lot better.  Now after reworking all these 100 million in MBS (you’ve turned crap into good stuff) you sell it to Fannie, Freddie, Ginnie.  You just made cash, the homeowner is psyched because you dropped their mortgage (one example a homeowner had their principal dropped from 400 to 315K) but the FHA is more and more on the hook as a guarantor of these reworked mortgages. 

    Good news is mortgages are being reworked and if the housing market recovers the FHA / GOV is OK but if not, OUCH!

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    NOBAMA / Carter 2012 - “Yes we can - we just figured out a way - it’s called the American deem”

         
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    Posted: 23 November 2009 12:01 AM #4

    $ is rising (broke back above support - eur/us$) and the futures are at Friday’s highs.  Setting up nicely if you are long…

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    NOBAMA / Carter 2012 - “Yes we can - we just figured out a way - it’s called the American deem”

         
  • Posted: 23 November 2009 12:25 AM #5

    It’s anecdotal, but I have a relative who is pulling 14 hours a day for Fed EX now.  The malls, at least where I live, show far more life this year than last.  The recovery isn’t in full bloom, but the green shoots are there for anyone looking…do investors wait until after Black Friday to confirm this or might they be nervous about being late to catch a train?

         
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    Posted: 23 November 2009 10:51 AM #6

    Apparently everybody decided over the weekend that the rally should continue.

    Bull story: Home sales are rocking 10% higher than September’s 8% rise with an increase in sales of home from 250-500K homes?beyond the range of the typical first-time home buyer suggesting people are buying non-starter homes on value (as I predicted from the vacation home buying trend in my neighborhood).

    Bear story: the increase in sales of first time homes is a result of the final gold rush to capture the first-time home buyer’s credit before the deadline expired.

    Bull Story: Tech Data (along with Ingram Micro) hit a new 52week high today. Tech Data supplies businesses who retail computers and networking as well as business to business sales suggesting that sales for technology distributers is brisk.

    And so on.

    [ Edited: 23 November 2009 11:09 AM by Eric Landstrom ]

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 23 November 2009 11:10 AM #7

    I get an EMAIL from Ameritrade, my broker. They are PLEASED to be able to offer me a CD at….

    .... drumroll here…. 1.5% for six months!

    And it is even GUARANTEED….

    Now, multiply this a few million times over at the company water coolers around the USA. “Hey, I’m getting 1.5% on my savings!”

    Other guy…

    “Oh, that’s great, I have to tell you however, my stocks are up 50% for the year…”

    The first guy, with his balloon popped, starts asking himself, “I’m a retard idiot for bailing out at the bottom, then STAYING out cause it could get bad again…, maybe I should put 1/3rd of my cash to work again?”

    THAT is what I believe we are seeing now.

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    “Even in the worst of times, someone turns a profit. . ” —#162 Ferengi: Rules of Acquisition

         
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    Posted: 23 November 2009 11:49 AM #8

    TanToday - 23 November 2009 03:10 PM

    I get an EMAIL from Ameritrade, my broker. They are PLEASED to be able to offer me a CD at….

    .... drumroll here…. 1.5% for six months!

    And it is even GUARANTEED….

    Now, multiply this a few million times over at the company water coolers around the USA. “Hey, I’m getting 1.5% on my savings!”

    Other guy…

    “Oh, that’s great, I have to tell you however, my stocks are up 50% for the year…”

    The first guy, with his balloon popped, starts asking himself, “I’m a retard idiot for bailing out at the bottom, then STAYING out cause it could get bad again…, maybe I should put 1/3rd of my cash to work again?”

    THAT is what I believe we are seeing now.

    Along with the water cooler talk of I bought a new X and X because we’ve made so much on the market.

    And then there are the I also bought an X because I no longer think I’ll lose my job.

    And so too is the I bought an x because even though there is talk of another round of layoffs, I couldn’t afford X but when it went on sale, I couldn’t pass x up and so I bought on x of my very own!

    Then, there is the water cooler talk with the people who sell Xes: those people share that they didn’t sell too many Xes for the first eight months but as of late they sold through their entire inventory of Xes and have begun to sell through their replacement supplies as well.

    Signature

    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 23 November 2009 11:51 AM #9

    Good Morning Boys and Girls

    The sponge bought shares in AH on Friday at 199.92 and then this morning in regular trading at 203.53 and again at 204.00.  I am now about 100% in my regular account.  My buying and selling in small lots has allowed me to make a small profit and protect margin position.  I am very thank full for that.

    Did not buy back in my IRA because funds still have to clear from last week.

    A strong monday with decent volume is a good sign.  Lets hope this is finally the start of the Santa Rally. :grinsanta:

    had to update this post since I lost track after doing so much trading.

    [ Edited: 23 November 2009 12:00 PM by omacvi ]      
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    Posted: 23 November 2009 11:53 AM #10

    One of the banks I’ve been talking to has just hired a liquidation expert to dump their bank-owned property over the next twelve months.

    Tan, you know about this stuff: do those cats generally work on a commission based contract or on something else?

    Signature

    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 23 November 2009 01:31 PM #11

    TanToday - 23 November 2009 03:10 PM

    ... The first guy, with his balloon popped, starts asking himself, “I’m a retard idiot for bailing out at the bottom, then STAYING out cause it could get bad again…, maybe I should put 1/3rd of my cash to work again?”

    THAT is what I believe we are seeing now.

    Tell me when he puts his the other 2/3 cash to work.  Once a last fool, always the last fool.  The last fool to sell at the bottom, the last fool to buy at the top.

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    Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.  - Steve Jobs

         
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    Posted: 23 November 2009 01:32 PM #12

    artman1033 - 23 November 2009 03:57 PM
    Eric Landstrom - 23 November 2009 03:53 PM

    One of the banks I’ve been talking to has just hired a liquidation expert to dump their bank-owned property over the next twelve months.

    Tan, you know about this stuff: do those cats generally work on a commission based contract or on something else?

    HERE is the dark side of FDIC REOs courtesy of the doom and gloomers at zerohedge.

    Owning the GSEs has kept me abreast of the rentals taking place within their portfolios. Ironically, once the mortgage crisis subsides at the end of 2011-early 2012, the .gov will experience positive cash flow in the GSE space again. The question is if there will be an unwinding of the mechanism that fueled the housing monster which forced the GSEs to keep 30% of their portfolio in the sub-prime space. Thus banks continued to lend to the curiously unqualified in the knowledge that they could in turn sell those mortgages to the GSEs while they kept the very best mortgages on their books intending to carry them to full term. To the best of my knowledge the GSE portfolio requirements have not been tightened and ‘gov has continued to use the GSEs to backstop troubled municipalities by using the GSEs to purchase state bonds while also buying more mortgages from banks in an effort to jump start bank lending so the economy will pick up.

    That said, I’m going to play hooky and go car shopping this afternoon.

    [ Edited: 23 November 2009 01:35 PM by Eric Landstrom ]

    Signature

    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 23 November 2009 02:25 PM #13

    HP reports tonight… Just remember if you are considering taking a position before the end of the day.

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    NOBAMA / Carter 2012 - “Yes we can - we just figured out a way - it’s called the American deem”

         
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    Posted: 23 November 2009 02:32 PM #14

    Eric Landstrom - 23 November 2009 03:53 PM

    One of the banks I’ve been talking to has just hired a liquidation expert to dump their bank-owned property over the next twelve months.

    Tan, you know about this stuff: do those cats generally work on a commission based contract or on something else?

    In the late 80’s I actually WAS the liquidation agent for all the commercial foreclosures, malls, offices, apartments, land, specialty properties for PNC Bank. That was the last HARD economic downturn that the commercial real estate market underwent.

    Generally banks are cheap buggers. They don’t like paying YOU anything thinking that they should make all the money with you doing all the work. So, generally, they will eitehr pay you on a lousy guaranteed salary, and you pretend to work, and they pretend to pay you a living wage, OR you go on straight commission.

    I was on the latter.

    The problem is however, IF they SELL the properties for what they are honestly worth today, that generally entails them taking the hit, and having to write DOWN the book value to the sales price. IF HOWEVER, they just refuse any resonable offer, they can play games and keep it on the books at the face, and not take the write downs.

    After working for two years, and submitting $14 million in offers, I figured out their game and left it.

    Subsequently, over the following two more years, EVERY property I had, sold, and ALL of them sold for LESS THAN offers I had previously obtained and submitted to them. The difference was, they now were making money, and the hits to their books could be offset by profits from gouging their retail and credit card clients.

    In short, streetwalkers are more trustworthy than bankers, be afraid, be VERY afraid when they want you to “help them out of a jam.”

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    “Even in the worst of times, someone turns a profit. . ” —#162 Ferengi: Rules of Acquisition

         
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    Posted: 23 November 2009 05:08 PM #15

    artman1033 - 23 November 2009 09:06 PM

    I went to grade school with his Mother!!

    Was that back when you had to walk to school in the snow uphill both ways?

    Signature

    NOBAMA / Carter 2012 - “Yes we can - we just figured out a way - it’s called the American deem”