It is interesting to see the difference in the Deagol’s BF Muiltiplier index between, the US and Europe compared to the BF Multiplier of Asia Pacific. 14.4 to 2.9. I wonder why there is comparatively so little uptick in that region? Whilst certainly not as important to Apple in terms of current revenue, surely this is a strategically important region for future growth.

benoir - 30 November 2009 08:44 AM

It is interesting to see the difference in the Deagol’s BF Muiltiplier index between, the US and Europe compared to the BF Multiplier of Asia Pacific. 14.4 to 2.9. I wonder why there is comparatively so little uptick in that region? Whilst certainly not as important to Apple in terms of current revenue, surely this is a strategically important region for future growth.

Is Black Friday shopping a big thing in Asia? I thought a three-fold jump in sales (even if it pales compared to 14x in the US) was quite respectable for Asia, but I really know nothing about the manic ritual’s practice there. Just assuming BF was mostly an American thing, and that it probably translates better into Europe than Asia.

deagol - 30 November 2009 09:15 AM

benoir - 30 November 2009 08:44 AM

It is interesting to see the difference in the Deagol’s BF Muiltiplier index between, the US and Europe compared to the BF Multiplier of Asia Pacific. 14.4 to 2.9. I wonder why there is comparatively so little uptick in that region? Whilst certainly not as important to Apple in terms of current revenue, surely this is a strategically important region for future growth.

Is Black Friday shopping a big thing in Asia? I thought a three-fold jump in sales (even if it pales compared to 14x in the US) was quite respectable for Asia, but I really know nothing about the manic ritual’s practice there. Just assuming BF was mostly an American thing, and that it probably translates better into Europe than Asia.

Nope…..  The big day in Oz is Boxing Day (day after Christmas) but that is probably more light end consumer stuff.
I guess the reason is that we don’t celebrate Thanksgiving day which is a bit of a marker for the Christmas season. We have a really ambiguous start to the season, usually starts in October when supermarkets and department stores start lining the shelves with Christmas paraphernalia - who knows who buy the stuff that far out?

Interestingly this is an except from wikipedia:

The term “Black Friday” originated in Philadelphia in reference to the heavy traffic on that day (see Origin of the name “Black Friday” below). More recently, merchants and the media have used it instead to refer to the beginning of the period in which retailers go from being in the red (i.e., posting a loss on the books) to being in the black (i.e., turning a profit).

There certainly is a a similar idea in this part of the world where retailers claim that they make all their profit in the month of December. It’s always a frenzy in December. What is certainly becoming clear is that Apple is becoming more and more pervasive in this part of the world. Lots of iPhones, lots of Macs across all sectors.

*bump*

Any recent one?

deagol - 26 November 2009 03:33 PM

...this year’s projected estimate is 4.08M (2.68M US+1.40M EU).

The closing order for the quarter comes from tradervic21 (AAPL Sanity member): W67568xxx on Dec 30. This represents 19% Y/Y decline for the month of December (last year’s December was exceptionally strong) and 7% Y/Y decline for the whole quarter in the US sequence (2.5M US orders).

I don’t have any data for the EU sequence since Black Friday, so I’ve decided to extrapolate the Oct-Nov Y/Y EU growth rate adjusted with the same seasonality observed in the US for December to estimate the quarter-closing order for the EU sequence (W92357xxx on Dec 27).

I believe this is a conservative approach because the Nov-Dec seasonality in the US should be less back-loaded than in the EU due to a stronger Black Friday effect, yet I’m applying it to the EU and probably penalizing the EU December orders.

This estimate accounts for 13% of the quarter’s orders (494k out of the 3.83M combined US+EU total), so a real EU order around the end of December would help minimize all this estimated projection business.

Any other orders from either sequence (even Asia-Pacific), for around mid-December or closer to Dec 27th would also be helpful.

Thanks again for all the contributions.

I purchased a 15 inch MacBook Pro on December 30th. My order number is: W67560341

This is probably not of any value but for the price of posting…Scott Wapner on CNBC’s Planet of the Aps last night said that 200 Million worth of Apple apps are being sold monthly.

January 16th, 2010
W678427xx

New iMac that a co-worker ordered