iPhone plus Touch

At the end of the past quarter, Apple had about 57 million devices out there, according to yesterday’s Morgan Stanley Mobile Internet Report.

I predict 18 million more devices during the current quarter, for a total of 75 million, or an installed base increase of 32%.

This requires some possibly sloppy work on my part, but it is back of the envelope stuff

Next year we get to add the iTablet to the mix of mobile internet devices.

The iPod touch adds almost immeasurably to the iPhone OS eco-system, providing both developers and accessory makers with a much larger market from which to generate product sales.

It’s a competitive advantage the other handset makers can’t match.

DawnTreader - 17 December 2009 12:37 AM

The iPod touch adds almost immeasurably to the iPhone OS eco-system, providing both developers and accessory makers with a much larger market from which to generate product sales.

It’s a competitive advantage the other handset makers can’t match.

That is true, but is not exactly how I am thinking of it these days.

Some time ago, I started referring to the duo as Apple’s mobile internet OS, and the recent Morgan Stanley report has solidified my thinking on that.

Next, it seems, comes the tablet.  I would not be surprised if there are other devices on Apple’s internal road map.

So, most places where I used iPhone in the past, unless I am talking about iPhone-specific features, I am not using mobile internet eco-system. The iPhone is the leading product in that platform now, but the platform is bigger than the iPhone, and will become even bigger.

roni - 17 December 2009 09:21 AM

DawnTreader - 17 December 2009 12:37 AM

The iPod touch adds almost immeasurably to the iPhone OS eco-system, providing both developers and accessory makers with a much larger market from which to generate product sales.

It’s a competitive advantage the other handset makers can’t match.

That is true, but is not exactly how I am thinking of it these days.

Some time ago, I started referring to the duo as Apple’s mobile internet OS, and the recent Morgan Stanley report has solidified my thinking on that.

Next, it seems, comes the tablet.  I would not be surprised if there are other devices on Apple’s internal road map.

So, most places where I used iPhone in the past, unless I am talking about iPhone-specific features, I am not using mobile internet eco-system. The iPhone is the leading product in that platform now, but the platform is bigger than the iPhone, and will become even bigger.

The iPhone eco-system includes not only phone use, but Internet access through the iPhone, iPod touch and soon the much-rumored Apple tablet.

It includes app developers, Web advertisers reaching surfers through the devices and makers of peripherals and accessories. It also includes those with an economic interest in music, movies and other commercial content replayed on the devices. It is a huge and growing market.

Among the ways the iPod touch provides Apple with a competitive advantage is the iPod touch delivers a much larger base of consumers than the iPhone provide alone and thus increases the economic value and the prospects of financial success of developing products for iPhone OS-based devices.

Despite some early doubt about Apple being able to crack the insularity of Japan’s smart phone market, news broke this evening that the iPHone has claimed nearly 50% of that country’s smart phone market here

Pretty impressive I say…

By the end of December, according to Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster, Apple’s (AAPL) will have sold 78 million iPhones and iPod touches worldwide.
According to the Morgan Stanley mobile internet report, the number at the end of the Sept quarter was 57 million.
That means Gene is predicting 21 million Apple mobile internet devices sold during the current quarter.
Wonder how that will split between iPhones and iPod Touches?

http://brainstormtech.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2009/12/18/where-in-the-world-are-apples-78-million-handsets/

roni - 18 December 2009 08:57 AM

By the end of December, according to Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster, Apple’s (AAPL) will have sold 78 million iPhones and iPod touches worldwide.
According to the Morgan Stanley mobile internet report, the number at the end of the Sept quarter was 57 million.
That means Gene is predicting 21 million Apple mobile internet devices sold during the current quarter.
Wonder how that will split between iPhones and iPod Touches?

http://brainstormtech.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2009/12/18/where-in-the-world-are-apples-78-million-handsets/

According to AppleInsder

In a note to investors Tuesday, analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said that though the launch of the iPhone in China was “soft,” the slow start has not caused him to adjust his projection of 9.2 million iPhone sales in the December quarter.

That leaves 11.8 for the Ipod touch.  Last year the touch was about 45% of ipod sale, but this has picked up i think because the Ipod asp is up about 7% QTD.  I would think the split is reasonable.

Let’s due the math based on the numbers in the post from pats:

21 million units less 9.2 million for the iPhone leaves 11.8 million units for the iPod touch. Assuming these numbers are an accurate recount of GM’s forecast, I’d be planning to break out a case of champagne following the December quarter earnings release if these kinds of numbers come to pass.

DawnTreader - 19 December 2009 05:37 PM

Let’s due the math based on the numbers in the post from pats:

21 million units less 9.2 million for the iPhone leaves 11.8 million units for the iPod touch. Assuming these numbers are an accurate recount of GM’s forecast, I’d be planning to break out a case of champagne following the December quarter earnings release if these kinds of numbers come to pass.

I have a bottle of good Cabernet Sauvignon in the garage…...errrrr, wine celler just for that occasion.

My apple investments are mostly Jan 2011 LEAPs and shares.  I expect a good couple of years with a bit of cooperation from the economy and broader market

roni - 20 December 2009 12:48 PM

  I expect a good couple of years with a bit of cooperation from the economy and broader market

Agreed. I expect $300 per share within the year. Perhaps $400 per share within two years. I won’t imagine beyond that delightful share price.