The Apple Tablet

  • Posted: 25 December 2009 05:45 PM

    THis time next year, we’ll be reading magazine content on something that resembles THIS HERE

    I think it’s the future for newspaper, magazine and books.  A smart video on the thinking of layout, UI, and user experience.

         
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    Posted: 25 December 2009 06:37 PM #1

    Mercel - 25 December 2009 09:45 PM

    THis time next year, we’ll be reading magazine content on something that resembles THIS HERE

    I think it’s the future for newspaper, magazine and books.  A smart video on the thinking of layout, UI, and user experience.

    That was an amazing video.  Thanx for sharing. 

    If Apple can introduce a tablet with those features they will sell 3 million in the first 6 months at $900 a piece.  The future looks very bright. 8-)

         
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    Posted: 26 December 2009 09:09 AM #2

    Mercel - 25 December 2009 09:45 PM

    THis time next year, we’ll be reading magazine content on something that resembles THIS HERE

    I think it’s the future for newspaper, magazine and books.  A smart video on the thinking of layout, UI, and user experience.

    Buying newspaper stocks could be a nice speculative play for a month or two.

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  • Posted: 26 December 2009 11:22 AM #3

    Mace - 26 December 2009 01:09 PM
    Mercel - 25 December 2009 09:45 PM

    THis time next year, we’ll be reading magazine content on something that resembles THIS HERE

    I think it’s the future for newspaper, magazine and books.  A smart video on the thinking of layout, UI, and user experience.

    Buying newspaper stocks could be a nice speculative play for a month or two.

    The world is shrinking, and I think there will be more consolidation among the newspapers. The national dailies will probably localize their versions w/stringers, poaching local paper readership.  Although I think readership can improve with the tablet—now known as the “iSlate”—the business model for a local newspaper in every town isn’t very compelling to me. 

    Rich media content is coming to your iSlate soon…black ink on white paper is music on vinyl.  Quaint, but doomed nonetheless.

         
  • Posted: 26 December 2009 11:29 AM #4

    omacvi - 25 December 2009 10:37 PM
    Mercel - 25 December 2009 09:45 PM

    THis time next year, we’ll be reading magazine content on something that resembles THIS HERE

    I think it’s the future for newspaper, magazine and books.  A smart video on the thinking of layout, UI, and user experience.

    That was an amazing video.  Thanx for sharing. 

    If Apple can introduce a tablet with those features they will sell 3 million in the first 6 months at $900 a piece.  The future looks very bright. 8-)

    Or, there is speculation that iSlate will be priced very aggressively, capturing market share by relying on a business model that monetizes the content, although I think this will be a challenging road to build.  But I do like the idea of Apple allowing the user to bundle content in a package of what we choose, rather than the Comcast model charging us too much for things we don’t watch.

         
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    Posted: 26 December 2009 12:25 PM #5

    My belief is that Apple will not price the iSlate aggressively, but rather the opposite. This is not about getting market share or selling as many as possible right from the start.  Look at the $500 iPod in 2001 and the $600 iPHone in 2007 or the MacBook air in 2008.  I think the iSlate will give everyone a sticker shock but still sell quite well.  I am betting it will cost between $1000 to $1700.

    SJ will show us that an iPod touch is $400 and a nice MacBook Pro is $2000.  Therefore one can now get space age technology for $1200 with a 132 Gig drive and touch screen and motion sensors.. 8-)

         
  • Posted: 26 December 2009 01:35 PM #6

    omacvi - 26 December 2009 04:25 PM

    My belief is that Apple will not price the iSlate aggressively, but rather the opposite.

    I disagree. One of the best barriers to competitor entry is attractive pricing from the start. This item is apt to be as disruptive to current commercial content distribution for movies, books, magazines and news as the iPod was disruptive to music distribution.

    The difference this time around is competitors are much more aware of Apple’s ability to challenge a market today than when the iPod arrived on the scene. Apple won’t have years to build a product market as it did with the iPod.

    One of the primary goals of this device is to sell content. It’s a content conduit for everything from apps to movies to books. I expect it to be a high volume product, priced attractively (if even below Apple’s average gross margins at the start). Think of the channel fill demands of a product of this kind at the moment of release if price attractively.

    A big question is whether or not it will provide for wireless data service through cell service providers such as AT&T and Verizon. Both of those companies, for example, are racing to replace lost landline revenue through the sale of data services to customers. Putting cell service partners to work selling this device builds the economy for content providers.

    For example, offering developers and commercial content owners a product market of 20 million users attracts far more interest than a product market for 2 million users.

    I think we all be pleasantly surprised at the product’s price and the content partners Apple is able to attract based on the size of the potential market.

         
  • Posted: 26 December 2009 07:32 PM #7

    Based on the most relevant precedent (the iPhone), the tablet will be priced at a premium at first, and then come down in cost rapidly. 

    While this makes sense from the perspective of the numbers guys (let’s milk the early adopters for all their big bucks),  I continue to believe that this is ultimately a mistake on Apple’s part.  Exacting premium prices, even just for six months, reinforces the biggest barrier to larger adoption of the Apple ecosystem:  the general misperception that Apple products are overpriced and unaffordable. 

    I believe there are still people who feel that they can’t afford an iPhone, even though the lowest price is now $99.  Perception lingers.

    So while Apple makes some extra bucks in the short term, I believe it loses more bucks in the longer term.

         
  • Posted: 26 December 2009 10:34 PM #8

    macorange - 26 December 2009 11:32 PM

    Based on the most relevant precedent (the iPhone), the tablet will be priced at a premium at first, and then come down in cost rapidly.

    I disagree. The iPhone’s original revenue model was based on non-subsidized retail prices and a service revenue sharing agreement with AT&T. Apple saw the non-subsidized price as a barrier to unit sales and negotiated with AT&T for a subsidized model and the elimination of the service revenue sharing agreement. Unit sales skyrocketed following this change.

    I recall Tim Cook forecasting a product that will have pinched margins at the start. I believe the tablet is what he was talking about. I see an attractively-priced product to drive adoption and open a new avenue for app and content sales. Those sales at 30% distribution fees will help the revenue and earnings matrix for the product.

    This is as much about creating a new conduit for content sales and distribution as it is about another product. I see a smartly priced product to drive sales and expand the app store economy.

         
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    Posted: 27 December 2009 02:51 AM #9

    DawnTreader - 27 December 2009 02:34 AM

    This is as much about creating a new conduit for content sales and distribution as it is about another product. I see a smartly priced product to drive sales and expand the app store economy.

    I hope you are right, but I just don’t see it.  Apple has not changed its strategy for as long as I can remember.  A good iPod is $400 and that has not changed in 8 years.  A non contract iPhone is still $600.  The iSlate or iTablet will be over $1000.  Mark my words.

    Apple is about selling products and the services as secondary.  There is no need to change what’s not broke. 

    The iPhone has introduced millions of new customers to the Mac brand.  There are millions who will not give up on their Windows systems but will get an iPod or an iPhone in a heart beat.  An iTablet or iSlate would be one more product for those folks who are willing to pay the big bucks for another cool new products.

         
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    Posted: 27 December 2009 02:57 AM #10

    Mercel - 26 December 2009 03:22 PM

    Rich media content is coming to your iSlate soon…black ink on white paper is music on vinyl.  Quaint, but doomed nonetheless.

    Vinyl sales have increased a lot in the past two-three years. That format hit rock bottom in the 90s, but has made a substantial comeback in the past decade. It will never become the main format for music, but it will never disappear either.

    I think the same thing will happen with print newspapers.

         
  • Posted: 27 December 2009 12:20 PM #11

    MaxW - 27 December 2009 06:57 AM
    Mercel - 26 December 2009 03:22 PM

    Rich media content is coming to your iSlate soon…black ink on white paper is music on vinyl.  Quaint, but doomed nonetheless.

    Vinyl sales have increased a lot in the past two-three years. That format hit rock bottom in the 90s, but has made a substantial comeback in the past decade. It will never become the main format for music, but it will never disappear either.

    I think the same thing will happen with print newspapers.

    Newspaper in print circulation is dropping by the day. It’s expensive, ecologically irresponsible and highly inefficient. Occasionally I glance at the one newspaper that arrives at my office. For the most part it’s news I read the day before on the Internet or via of my iPhone news apps. Why pay for old news printed on paper? Forget the classifieds. That’s the first thing recycled. Without ad revenue there’s no economic justification for news in paper form. It’s why newspapers are closing, budgets are being cut and circulation is dropping by the day.

         
  • Posted: 27 December 2009 02:02 PM #12

    MaxW - 27 December 2009 06:57 AM
    Mercel - 26 December 2009 03:22 PM

    Rich media content is coming to your iSlate soon…black ink on white paper is music on vinyl.  Quaint, but doomed nonetheless.

    Vinyl sales have increased a lot in the past two-three years. That format hit rock bottom in the 90s, but has made a substantial comeback in the past decade. It will never become the main format for music, but it will never disappear either.

    I think the same thing will happen with print newspapers.

    As serendipity would have it, I was shopping for a turntable to play my old vinyl yesterday.  When I asked the salesperson how one justifies equipment to play old LPs, he pointed a finger to a wall showcasing NEWLY pressed, uber-quality vinyl.  Nostalgia comes at a price though, as the the new vinyl was priced at $35!.  But you are right, that ship has sailed, but nothing beats the “audio-visual” experience of black plastic on a turntable connected to a McIntosh (the other one) powered by tubes.  Quality never goes out of style…

         
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    Posted: 27 December 2009 03:04 PM #13

    Amazing Video and you know Apple could just nail the UI.
    Was it just me or was the person narrating channeling his best Jonathan Ive?
    If they had not shown his face I would have sworn it was Jonnny Ive Speaking!

    Cheers and Happy Holl’s to all fellow AFB’ers

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    Lieutenant Dan got me invested in some kind of fruit company…

         
  • Posted: 28 December 2009 01:25 AM #14

    Mercel - 27 December 2009 06:02 PM
    MaxW - 27 December 2009 06:57 AM
    Mercel - 26 December 2009 03:22 PM

    Rich media content is coming to your iSlate soon…black ink on white paper is music on vinyl.  Quaint, but doomed nonetheless.

    Vinyl sales have increased a lot in the past two-three years. That format hit rock bottom in the 90s, but has made a substantial comeback in the past decade. It will never become the main format for music, but it will never disappear either.

    I think the same thing will happen with print newspapers.

    As serendipity would have it, I was shopping for a turntable to play my old vinyl yesterday.  When I asked the salesperson how one justifies equipment to play old LPs, he pointed a finger to a wall showcasing NEWLY pressed, uber-quality vinyl.  Nostalgia comes at a price though, as the the new vinyl was priced at $35!.  But you are right, that ship has sailed, but nothing beats the “audio-visual” experience of black plastic on a turntable connected to a McIntosh (the other one) powered by tubes.  Quality never goes out of style…

    I jumped back into vinyl earlier this year and my only regret is that I didn’t do it sooner.

    Regarding the tablet, I remember back to the iPhone introduction and how it was so far beyond anything I had certainly imagined.  I am trusting that there are aspects that will seem completely obvious when revealed which will be a surprise until then (“why didn’t anyone think of X before”).

    As far as pricing, I am expecting two sizes priced so that it seems a given to purchase the larger model (say $799 and $999 as a guess).  I don’t see it being priced higher than the entry level Macbook.

    Cannot wait until end of January ... Happy New Year to everyone at AFB.

         
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    Posted: 28 December 2009 05:41 AM #15

    DawnTreader - 27 December 2009 04:20 PM
    MaxW - 27 December 2009 06:57 AM
    Mercel - 26 December 2009 03:22 PM

    Rich media content is coming to your iSlate soon…black ink on white paper is music on vinyl.  Quaint, but doomed nonetheless.

    Vinyl sales have increased a lot in the past two-three years. That format hit rock bottom in the 90s, but has made a substantial comeback in the past decade. It will never become the main format for music, but it will never disappear either.

    I think the same thing will happen with print newspapers.

    Newspaper in print circulation is dropping by the day. It’s expensive, ecologically irresponsible and highly inefficient. Occasionally I glance at the one newspaper that arrives at my office. For the most part it’s news I read the day before on the Internet or via of my iPhone news apps. Why pay for old news printed on paper? Forget the classifieds. That’s the first thing recycled. Without ad revenue there’s no economic justification for news in paper form. It’s why newspapers are closing, budgets are being cut and circulation is dropping by the day.

    Some people just like the feel of reading a paper. It’s the same reason why some people print every single one of their documents out when they want to read it. That’s why I don’t think print versions of papers, magazines or books will ever disappear. Besides, daily papers are a practical aggregation of recent news, all in one document.

    Or people might start printing off their own electronic copies to read on paper.