First of all it will be everything the iPhone is and more, it will take advantage of the bigger form factor and be the best eReader on the market, the best portable video device, the media consumption device period. There will probably be content deals with Disney, major networks, and news and media outlets.

It will also have access to 130K apps right out of the gate with the AppStore. The apps might simply expand to fill the screen, or perhaps they’ll float like a widget, which implies that the Apple Tablet will be multi-tasking. And with that big form factor it will have a much larger battery to handle the extra computing power necessary. Something that Apple has said kept the iPhone from going the multitasking route.

Although I never thought this was a big deal, because you can only do one thing at a time on the iPhone anyways. You can however, receive a call and check your email at the same time.

The most significant feature of the new Apple Tablet will be the user interface. Sure, you’ll be able to touch it and use gestures, like the iPhone. I’m sure the types of gestures will be greatly expanded to take advantage of the bigger size, so maybe we’ll see two hand gestures.

And there’s definitely be a virtual keyboard that will probably have some kind of tactile feedback like the haptic interface, where the surface buzzes, making it feel like your touching a real button, or perhaps Apple will introduce something far more sensory like the articulating surface technology that Apple has a patent for.

So, I think these things will be there, but that’s only part of it, as cool as those things would be. Apple is thinking much bigger.

I got to thinking about the device as a communications device. The problem is that holding a tablet and touching it at the same time doesn’t seem like an easy thing to do, in fact it seems awkward. If I were doing a video conference, then I’d want to prop up the tablet rather than have it lie on the table. And if were propped up, I don’t want to touch it unless it had a really solid base like the iMac, but that seems impractical for a small device.

Wouldn’t it be cool if you didn’t have to touch the Tablet? What if you could gesture in front of it with your hands, a la Minority Report? Remember that movie with Tome cruise, where they could manipulate a holographic computer
screen in the space in fro of you? That would make it much easier, but I think the Apple Tablet will go even further than that.

I think you won’t even have to use your hands. I think you’ll be able to use facial gestures. Not stupid faces, but micro movements that can be detected with a headset, perhaps earbuds that use a triangulation technology that allows you to manipulate the interface just by looking at it, maybe clenching a bit for a selection.

I remember way back in the 80s, I went to a MacWorld in Boston and this small company had this accessibility device for the Mac. It was meant for quadriplegics and other disabled people. You put the receiver on the top of the Mac, and wore a small headset, and it used triangulated radio frequencies to monitor your head position. And with a little practice you could operate the cursor and click buttons, and type. It was very cool. I wondered why such a thing never took off, probably because it cost about $350 bucks!

Perhaps with Apple’s facial recognition technology and a front mounted camera they’ve come up with something similar to this radio device. Then you could operate your Tablet with small movements of your head or your eyes. You could also use a detachable pad or maybe even the Magic Mouse to help make selections. Or maybe you simply nod.

And let’s not forget voice recognition, that could be included in the mix. So what I’m suggesting is that you could use any of these input mechanisms by themselves or in concert with one another.

So, where’s the big in all of this? Well, I see this new way of operating your computer as a way to free us to interact with it in more natural ways. Allowing us to communicate more freely, and to multitask with other things around us at the same time. I see this user interface eventually migrating to the entire Mac lineup.

But first, it will address the needs of millions of people that don’t really need a full fledged Notebook, or even the confinement and sacrifices one makes with a netbook. There’s a huge class of people that only want to consume their media, do some communications, like write an email or call a friend, maybe even do a visual chat.

Most people never really do much more than cruise the Internet, check out some of their favorite websites and buy stuff. And a clunky laptop is too much, and a netback is too little and not suited for the purpose. An Apple Tablet would fill that void. Think Different.

I created a YouTube Video that goes into a little more detail than this post.

The words above do not sound like those of someone who is shorting Apple.  Did you have a change of heart?

Who said I was shorting AAPL? I’ve been long AAPL, for the most part over this entire run up. I’ve taken short positions along the way, but they were short-term, and based on hitting resistance within a range. I play both ways, always have.

There was a time, a few months ago, where I thought the S&P would hit the wall at 1084 and then correct. That seemed to be a pretty good call in that that level, or there about, turned out to be significant resistance and kept the S&P and AAPL in a holding pattern for nearly three months.

About a week and a half ago I posted that AAPL was setting up to break out of two patterns, one a fractal of the other. The breakout point was 209, the target 220. Well, we all know that AAPL broke out, and yesterday it backtested 209. So, the only problem I see know is that we’re getting overbought in most timeframes. The hourly chart is the only one that still has some room to run.

That’s Ok, because we can stay overbought for extended periods of time in a bull rally, AAPL proved that from July to November. But sooner or later it’s gonna correct before it can go higher.

So, my prediction is that AAPL will run up to 220 before the Tablet event, then it will get sold off hard, probably below 209, perhaps as low as 195 or so, maybe even lower. It’s the prototypical buy the rumor, sell the news trade.

-ernie

I can’t find the link, but I recall reading you recently sold your long position and bought puts.  The last few sentences of your post above seem consistent with these actions.  If I misconstrued, a 1,000 apologies

Mercel - 09 January 2010 07:54 PM

I can’t find the link, but I recall reading you recently sold your long position and bought puts.  The last few sentences of your post above seem consistent with these actions.  If I misconstrued, a 1,000 apologies

I can point to the specific posts and podcasts where I made the respective calls, but I prefer not to because some people get upset with that here.

In any case, I think if the Tablet thingy ends up being what I described, there’s going to be a lot of confusion in the analysts pits. They won’t understand it at first, so they’ll naturally ridicule the concept, then they’ll question themselves, and finally they’ll come around and realize its true brilliance. But that probably won’t happen until mid to late February.

Ern - didn’t you say aapl wouldn’t get over 100 in 2008?  Pretty sure you did.  Your TA is lacking my friend….

runedge - 09 January 2010 10:18 PM

Ern - didn’t you say aapl wouldn’t get over 100 in 2008?  Pretty sure you did.  Your TA is lacking my friend….

Yes. But I was also the one that called the S&P bottom to the exact dollar, 666 a full five months in advance. If you would like to see that proof, I’d be happy to share it with you.

TA is not an exact science, in fact it’s more art than science. The objective is to provide objective guidance to a stocks future movement based on price and volume history. This includes a relative probability that the analysis is correct. It’s up to the trader/investor to decide how to best act on that guidance.

Let’s face it, sometimes you’re right, sometimes you’re wrong. Hopefully you’re right more often than not. I have a recorded history of all my analysis and it clearly shows that I have been right far more often than wrong. Of course it all depends on how you act on that analysis as to whether you profit or not.

-ernie

erntheburn - 09 January 2010 07:21 PM

.......

Wouldn’t it be cool if you didn’t have to touch the Tablet? What if you could gesture in front of it with your hands, a la Minority Report? Remember that movie with Tome cruise, where they could manipulate a holographic computer
screen in the space in fro of you? That would make it much easier, but I think the Apple Tablet will go even further than that…......

And let’s not forget voice recognition, that could be included in the mix. So what I’m suggesting is that you could use any of these input mechanisms by themselves or in concert with one another…...

This is what I envision to make the Tablet stand out.  I think we have reached the technology to make this possible at a reasonable price. $1000

as far as your prior stock predictions, I don’t care.  We all have been wrong before.  When we were at 80 I thought we would go to 60.  And when we were at 100 I never thought we would go past 130.  The market makes fools out of all of us.

We’re going to introduce 3 revolutionary products today.

phone…internet device…touch ipod.  or something like that

What if it was

display device…input device…output device

display device that works like a mac/iphone but is operated slightly differently

input device that works like a graphics tablet when hooked up to your mac

output device that can tether with a TV and contains a pico projector for use without one.

BillH - 10 January 2010 11:06 PM

We’re going to introduce 3 revolutionary products today.

phone…internet device…touch ipod.  or something like that

What if it was

display device…input device…output device

display device that works like a mac/iphone but is operated slightly differently

input device that works like a graphics tablet when hooked up to your mac

output device that can tether with a TV and contains a pico projector for use without one.

I think all of those functions are likely. I would add to the input device, an .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) built into the display that can stitch together a high resolution video for video chat. Also a laser projector that would project images such as keyboards and other virtual devices that could be manipulated by the user, like those in this video from India TED.