Gene Munster Interview

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    Posted: 10 January 2010 02:03 PM

    This morning on NPR there was a radio interview with Gene Munster about future prospects of Apple and Google:  Go to http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=10  and scroll down to the story “Mobile Advertising A Huge Battle for a Tiny Space.”  It’s worth a quick listen, especially Munster’s take that Apple is a good bet for the next year, and Google for the longer term.

         
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    Posted: 10 January 2010 02:28 PM #1

    firestorm - 10 January 2010 06:03 PM

    This morning on NPR there was a radio interview with Gene Munster about future prospects of Apple and Google:  Go to http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=10  and scroll down to the story “Mobile Advertising A Huge Battle for a Tiny Space.”  It’s worth a quick listen, especially Munster’s take that Apple is a good bet for the next year, and Google for the longer term.

    I don’t see how it’s a battle for a tiny space. Each has there own ecosystem that’s closed. There’s only one ad provider per space, so there’s no competition in that space.

    The only battle I see is the one for users of their respective platforms. And so far Apple is winning that hands down. The Google ecosystem is way too fragmented to cause any serious competition for Apple, at least for now.

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  • Posted: 10 January 2010 03:44 PM #2

    erntheburn - 10 January 2010 06:28 PM

    The only battle I see is the one for users of their respective platforms. And so far Apple is winning that hands down. The Google ecosystem is way too fragmented to cause any serious competition for Apple, at least for now.

    I disagree. The market is fragmented but that’s the risk for the handset makers, not for Google. I see Google’s entry into the handset market as a limited effort to clarify the market. Whether or not handset makers can profit adequately from the Android OS is a matter to be determined over time. Google profits and benefits from each Android handset sold regardless of the maker and the service provider.

    The Android OS eco-system is real competition for Apple with or without a Google handset. Similar to the way Apple is in competition with other PC makers as a hardware vendor, Apple is now in competition with other smartphone makers. The difference is in a subsidized market the subsidized price of the phone closes the price gap in a way that’s beneficial to Apple versus the PC market.

    This battle is for developer dollars, ad revenue and handset market share to build the respective eco-systems. Apple has many advantages at present including the popular iPod touch that builds the eco-system with the iPhone, a significant lead in app availability, and similar to Google, will be monetizing ad revenue as a constituent source of revenue.

         
  • Posted: 10 January 2010 06:32 PM #3

    erntheburn - 10 January 2010 06:28 PM

    I don’t see how it’s a battle for a tiny space. .

    Think it means the real estate of the screen is somewhat tiny but it is ironically worth a fortune.

         
  • Posted: 10 January 2010 07:26 PM #4

    benoir - 10 January 2010 10:32 PM
    erntheburn - 10 January 2010 06:28 PM

    I don’t see how it’s a battle for a tiny space. .

    Think it means the real estate of the screen is somewhat tiny but it is ironically worth a fortune.

    I’d agree with you there Benoir.

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  • Posted: 10 January 2010 07:32 PM #5

    erntheburn - 10 January 2010 06:28 PM

    I don’t see how it’s a battle for a tiny space. Each has there own ecosystem that’s closed. There’s only one ad provider per space, so there’s no competition in that space.

    Sure there’s competition. There are several mobile OS makers in the market and hundreds of thousands of developers and enterprises interested in this market as well. There’s RIM, Nokia, Apple, Palm, Google, Microsoft all in the hunt to deliver ads on their platforms and to deliver customers to their developers. This is an exciting time for all enterprise involved as more and more advertising moves to mobile devices.

         
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    Posted: 10 January 2010 09:21 PM #6

    DawnTreader - 10 January 2010 11:32 PM
    erntheburn - 10 January 2010 06:28 PM

    I don’t see how it’s a battle for a tiny space. Each has there own ecosystem that’s closed. There’s only one ad provider per space, so there’s no competition in that space.

    Sure there’s competition. There are several mobile OS makers in the market and hundreds of thousands of developers and enterprises interested in this market as well. There’s RIM, Nokia, Apple, Palm, Google, Microsoft all in the hunt to deliver ads on their platforms and to deliver customers to their developers. This is an exciting time for all enterprise involved as more and more advertising moves to mobile devices.

    The market is going to end up with two consumer smartphone leaders… Apple and Google. RIMM will continue to dominate in the business space because they have the market and mindshare there, and they’re killer app is their integrated email. But they will not make inroads on Apple and Google in the consumer space. There’s simply not enough developers willing to take a chance on RIMM, plus their development platform sucks compared to Apple and Google.

    Everyone else is an also ran. Nokia is losing the US game, and slowly losing grip on the Euro game too. Palm is lost period, and heading for bankruptcy. All these also rans will split up about 10% of the remainder consumer space scraps from Apple and Google.

    Apple and Google can both attract developers for different reasons, but Apple clearly has the better platform from an ecosystem point of view, it’s arguable which has the better platform from a developer point of view. I like Java, but I’m biased being a former chief architect from Sun Micro. But I also like Apple’s XCode with Cocoa and Objective C.

    80% of the 3 billion apps downloaded from Apple’s app store are free apps, I’ve got to assume that those percentages will probably hold for Google as well. That is the meat and potatoes of the mobile ad business, at least at this moment. Apple has the bigger market share by a HUGE margin over Google right now, but I would expect that gap to narrow some.

    The way things stand right now, I believe it’s Apple’s game to lose. Indeed Google presents a formidable foe, but Apple has much more experience in the consumer products realm than Google, so you have to give the nod to Apple.

    I think the market is so big, has so much growth potential, that pitting one against the other is kind of a moot point. They’ll both be successful. Their successes will be compared to one another, but it won’t matter, because they’ll both branch off into thousands of fractal directions and make huge dollars, without ever impacting each others bottom line.

    Just my opinion.

    [ Edited: 10 January 2010 09:23 PM by erntheburn ]

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  • Posted: 11 January 2010 12:36 AM #7

    State of Play:

    “NOTICE: Users of mobile devices with Android software may have noticed several applications available for download in the Android Marketplace. If you see any applications provided by the user Droid09, please do not download these applications. Android applications provided by Droid09 are fraudulent. Please remove any applications by Droid09 from your mobile device and contact your mobile provider to evaluate whether any other applications or information stored on your mobile device have been compromised.”

    The disadvantage of “Open”.

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    Posted: 11 January 2010 01:13 AM #8

    rattyuk - 11 January 2010 04:36 AM

    State of Play:

    “NOTICE: Users of mobile devices with Android software may have noticed several applications available for download in the Android Marketplace. If you see any applications provided by the user Droid09, please do not download these applications. Android applications provided by Droid09 are fraudulent. Please remove any applications by Droid09 from your mobile device and contact your mobile provider to evaluate whether any other applications or information stored on your mobile device have been compromised.”

    The disadvantage of “Open”.

    Reason why I like Apple’s system of approval.

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  • Posted: 11 January 2010 01:58 AM #9

    The market is going to end up with two consumer smartphone leaders? Apple and Google. RIMM will continue to dominate in the business space because they have the market and mindshare there, and they?re killer app is their integrated email. But they will not make inroads on Apple and Google in the consumer space. There?s simply not enough developers willing to take a chance on RIMM, plus their development platform sucks compared to Apple and Google

    I think it’s very hard to disagree with this. I think the Android platform across so many devices may very well be the leading platform by numbers eventually. Not many seem to know the stats from RIM—80% of new activations in recent times have been in their non-enterprise space. Despite that, I’m don’t see their success continuing unless they make some major changes. Personally, I think they should buy PALM and then we’d have a 3 platform game to play. I will continue to write-off Nokia, but given their worldwide presence I’ll keep one eye on them in case they ever put some bite to their yappy bark.

    I called the last few quarters dead-on with RIM, but I think my days playing them are over. The rush of Android alternatives means I may choose to miss an upcoming quarter when mass upgrades within their huge array of enterprise customers (caused by improved budgets for tech spending) leads to a big beat by RIM. They’ve had a great run, and their ‘land grab’ philosophy into the consumer space has worked well given their early phase dominance. I think the number I saw last week was that 60% of Verizon’s smartphones have been from RIM. I can’t find the source for that right now, but whatever the number, given the onslaught of new Android/iPhone/Palm devices, this source of strength is in great peril.

    For Apple, I truly believe ‘this is our time’. The ending of exclusivity across the map will be a huge boost. A less important, but negative aspect to this can be witnessed here in Canada with Rogers. Visit their site, visit their stores, and read all the garbage that comes from them in the mail and you can’t see an iPhone anywhere these days! Losing the edge of exclusivity has led them to basically hide the iPhone. I assume that this is because the size of the subsidy makes other smartphones more profitable for them. This may be something to watch down the road as Android phones begin to acquire more mindshare. I’d also like on the 25th to hear an analyst ask about new strategies in countries like India and Russia where iPhone hasn’t fared well. I hope the China numbers continue their uptrend,  but I’d really like to hear about some sort of strategy to address sales in these huge markets. However, in countries where the power of the entire Apple ecosystem pervades, Apple’s position is currently unassailable.

         
  • Posted: 11 January 2010 06:24 PM #10

    rattyuk - 11 January 2010 04:36 AM

    State of Play:

    “NOTICE: Users of mobile devices with Android software may have noticed several applications available for download in the Android Marketplace. If you see any applications provided by the user Droid09, please do not download these applications. Android applications provided by Droid09 are fraudulent. Please remove any applications by Droid09 from your mobile device and contact your mobile provider to evaluate whether any other applications or information stored on your mobile device have been compromised.”

    The disadvantage of “Open”.

    The disadvantage of “Secure”:

    Turns out that Android 2.0.1—the build currently deployed on the Droid—suffers from a flaw whereby you can back out to a locked phone’s home screen simply by pressing the Back button after accepting an incoming call.

    Article can be read Here.

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