OK, you’ve seen the demo, read all the commentary; it’s time to predict the success or failure of the iPad in the marketplace.

I’ll start the bidding with 20 million.

My assumption is that nearly everyone who has an iPod Touch or iPhone loves it, and would like nothing more than a larger version of it to better surf the web, better play games, etc.  At $499, I am also assuming that nearly everyone who can afford to be an early adopter of the iPhone or iPod Touch can afford to be an early adopter of the iPad.  Therefore, I believe that over the next two years, nearly 80% of iPod Touch/iPhone owners will become iPad owners.  I’ll use a conservative assumption from that and say in the first 8 months, 25% will pull the trigger.  With a base of 75 million that’s 18.75 million units, and I round up to 20 million on the assumption that some folks who don’t have an iPhone/iPod Touch will be first time buyers of the iPad.

20 million seems outrageously high, and much higher than the rumored parts orders by Apple, but the math seems inescapable.  Each launch of a new product builds on the shoulders of the installed base of the previous product.

thats $10B+ to the bottom line… that would make Apple a $60B company…. try putting a forward PE on that!

My guess 10 million units.
It will ramp up much faster than the iPhone- the bonanza of a ‘goldrush’ for developers hungry to try their luck a second time with the benefit of knowing what worked the first time.
And yes, the aquatinted base who who will adopt without much hesitation will help things along.

artman1033 - 29 January 2010 08:58 AM

]How is my math?

10 million X $650 ASP = $6500 million or 6.5 billion to the top line, not the bottom line.

Yes… your math may be a little better than mine (it is late where I am on this blue green oblate spheroid).

500 minimum ASP x 20 million (macorange’s exuberance) = 10B to the top line…..

I’d say about 10M units

It’s hard to say at this point just how big the iPad will be, but I think it will be very big because of the favorable price points.

My personal experience, FWIW, is this:

1) Did not buy a Mac until the Mac Plus came out.
2) Waited until the Powerbook 540c came out to get a laptop.
3) Passed on the iPod until the iPod 3G came out.
4) Held off on the iPhone until well after the 3Gs came out.

5) Went to the Apple Store to pre-order two iPads immediately after the announcement. I will order two the minute pre-orders do open.

Perhaps this has to do with the 40- to 50-something demographic, but a few of my colleagues did the exact same thing.

A good lowball guess would be 6-7 million units this year. I think 10 million is possible provided there are no serious glitches when the iPad is deployed in the wild.

I’m going to be a little more conservitive and say 7M units for ‘10. I am anticipating production shortfalls and international service providers willingness to give a good data rate.

artman1033 - 29 January 2010 08:36 AM

Calendar year 2010 ...... 9 months

10 million would be UNBELIEVABLE!

That is my guess.

Apple should sell a minimum of 7-8mm units through Dec. 31.  I think it’s very doable, considering the mindshare that will exist for the iPad by next holiday season.  7.5mm units times $650 ASP produces approx. $5b of additional revenue for calendar 2010.  Add to this the related sales of iTunes and Apps and Apple has a nice, new profit center.

My guess:  3-5 million units in CY10.  I think 10MM+ is a real stretch.  There maybe an initial surge early on, however, I expect demand to drop off considerabely after the hype wears off and the early adopters are done.

Tommo_UK - 29 January 2010 09:28 AM

I’d say about 10M units

And you could be low.  To help things, Apple can launch a new series of commercials:

Hi.  I’m Kindle.  Hi.  I’m iPad.

Hmmm, maybe not.

PED had an article up yesterday that gave the analyst’s quotes:

Sorry about the formatting. I think that the people at the bottom of the list might lose their shirts the opening weekend but we shall see.

A few points:

This product is announced in late January to ship in late March. It’s being positioned for the next holiday season.

10 million units in about 9 months is very ambitious. It suggests Apple will ship as many iPads as the number of Macs that will be shipped in the same period.

Please consider there will be cannibalization of existing Apple products. That’s OK, but the net contribution to revenue and earnings of hardware sales will be impacted by cannibalization.

Where this product will benefit other product sales is at the retail stores. It’s a natural draw for foot traffic and sales.

When looking at total revenue contribution please consider the benefit of increased AppleCare and MobileMe sales. This product is a natural for constituent product sales especially among owners of other Apple devices.

I think Apple will use the spring and summer months to finetune the thing: iron out buggs, issues etc. Then I expect a softwareupdate at the end of summer to go into phase 2 of the iPad. By then they will (have to) see the full potential because you will see special iPad apps and addons. One thing is for sure: it will be huge!!!  I agree with Tommo: 10 is do-able.

Most likely they won’t be available until April for the WiFi and May for the 3G. I’m guessing they will sell 6-7 million. But, how many will put off buying a ITouch or base MacBook waiting for the new IPad? I will be buying a 64GB 3G as soon as they are available. And I hope the new Iphone will be out by July.

DawnTreader - 29 January 2010 10:05 AM

A few points:

Please consider there will be cannibalization of existing Apple products. That’s OK, but the net contribution to revenue and earnings of hardware sales will be impacted by cannibalization.

Cannibalization would only extend to Touch and Air (perhaps also MacBook). But then, say in my household, I can see an iPad happily alongside the iMacs, MacBooks, iPhones and Touch that are scattered around the house.

omacvi - 27 January 2010 03:44 PM

Mace - 27 January 2010 03:05 PM

I don’t have a MacBook.  Have an iMac and an iPhone.  So, I reckon I can have it .  Anyone would be kind enough to give me one or do I have to buy one myself?

Hey you are supposed to be buying us some. But you go head a buy one for yourself first.

I think everyone is missing the boat on this and wanted a home run.  Even though Apple is marketing it to those who own Apple products, I think this is geared to those who don’t.

Think about it.  You are about to buy your first computer.  You can get an iPad for $499 or and net book for $299.  I think they will sell millions to first time computer users and those who don’t want a touch but something bigger.

Yes it can have more, but you are a bunch of spoiled kids and this is not for us.  Some of may buy 2nd and 3rd versions once it has GPS and cameras.  But mark my words Apple will sell at least 10 million in the first year and half of those will be new to Apple.

taking orders at cafe’s and restaurants.

perhaps point of sale… (where an Touch is too small)

the uses will snowball