Number of iPads sold in CY10

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    Posted: 29 January 2010 11:41 AM #16

    I believe something in the 7M range is ambitious, with 10M only under blue-sky conditions. The iPad is a whole new concept of computing, neither here nor there, and it will take some time for the consumer to adjust. When the iPod first came out it was derided, and sales were slow for the first couple of years. The iPhone was an enhancement of the smartphone, a device with which the vast majority of people were already familiar. Following on the success of the iPod, the iPhone, and the longevity of the Mac line, Apple now has a track record with the public at large that is makes good, useful products. The uptake period of the iPad may not be as long and uncertain as the iPod was, but it certainly won’t be significantly faster than the iPhone.

    In the first three quarters of sale, Apple sold 5.1M iPhones. Anything more than that will be nice. I predict explosive growth in second half of 2011, when the iPad has been seen on campuses, TV shows; and the economy starts picking up.

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    Posted: 29 January 2010 11:46 AM #17

    If one believes some of the polls online, it appears 70% of the mac geeks like us will get some form of the iPad.

    So if there are 75 million installed users of iPhone and iTouch I think it is safe to say that at least 5% of those folks will get one in the first year.

    Add to that another 8% made up of first time Mac users and a few who hold off buying a new Mac but just upgrade to an iPad.

    I agree with the cannibalization issue, simply because Apple is now really marketing the fact that most just sit on the internet and read email.  Suddenly people will wonder why should I spend more money if I don’t have to at this point.

    However there is a side benefit.  Out of those 8% who may be new to the Mac, they will go into an Apple store for the first time.  Suddenly they will look at the Macs and realize that the time has come to make the switch.  So there is a Halo affect that will be created from the iPad that may neutralize the cannibalization issue.

    At our local university store the manager told me last night he will order 200 of these.  That is a very impressive number.  He thinks those buy a touch will buy this product.

         
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    Posted: 29 January 2010 11:54 AM #18

    awcabot - 29 January 2010 03:41 PM

    I believe something in the 7M range is ambitious, with 10M only under blue-sky conditions. The iPad is a whole new concept of computing, neither here nor there, and it will take some time for the consumer to adjust. When the iPod first came out it was derided, and sales were slow for the first couple of years. The iPhone was an enhancement of the smartphone, a device with which the vast majority of people were already familiar. Following on the success of the iPod, the iPhone, and the longevity of the Mac line, Apple now has a track record with the public at large that is makes good, useful products. The uptake period of the iPad may not be as long and uncertain as the iPod was, but it certainly won’t be significantly faster than the iPhone.

    In the first three quarters of sale, Apple sold 5.1M iPhones. Anything more than that will be nice. I predict explosive growth in second half of 2011, when the iPad has been seen on campuses, TV shows; and the economy starts picking up.

    Excellent points the only two caveats are these.

    Apple brand name is much more powerful now then it was in 2007.  The economy was going into recession just as the iPhone was released.  So a change in those two factors bodes well of iPad adaption.

    But I agree with your most important point.  Once the masses see their friends using them, everyone will want one.  My friend made a good point. 

    The reason the iPad was introduced right now, (in my view they had the technology to do so two years ago) is because Apple recognizes that iPod sales will continue to decline and that decline will speed up quickly.  The iPhone made up for a flattening of sales, but they needed a new product now to mitigate what WS will wrongly perceive as a major issue when Apple announces that iPod sales would be down as much as 15% this year.

    There is no doubt that SJ is a genius.  Everyone is mocking this new product, he knows it will be a total success before people even knew it existed.

         
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    Posted: 29 January 2010 11:57 AM #19

    awcabot - 29 January 2010 03:41 PM

    I believe something in the 7M range is ambitious, with 10M only under blue-sky conditions….In the first three quarters of sale, Apple sold 5.1M iPhones. Anything more than that will be nice. I predict explosive growth in second half of 2011, when the iPad has been seen on campuses, TV shows; and the economy starts picking up.

    Remember this device will take the place of many netbook purchases, in addition to being launched in multiple territories at once, and doesn’t come with an onerous airtime contract requirement.

    Comparisons with the iPhone roll-out are ill-advised I think. The initial market for the iPad is actually, IMO, HIGHER than the iPhone benefited from, thanks to that product’s limited geographical availability and carrier-contract requirements.

    I think 10M is do-able.

    In addition, this thing will be reviewed ad-naseum all over the media between now and its release, and will be seen in print, on TV shows, and probably even demo’d on campus and maybe in Apple Stores prior to its release.

    The release of OS 4 and all its new goodness, combined with all the hitherto-unnanounced features, will spur further interest in the run-up to and after the launch as all the nay-saying pundits prostrate themselves at the door to the Apple Store begging to be allowed to buy one proclaiming the error of their ways rolleyes

    [ Edited: 29 January 2010 12:00 PM by Tommo_UK ]

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  • Posted: 29 January 2010 12:01 PM #20

    DawnTreader - 29 January 2010 03:05 PM

    10 million units in about 9 months is very ambitious. It suggests Apple will ship as many iPads as the number of Macs that will be shipped in the same period.

    I believe the iPad will outsell Macs when both are available.  The difference in price points is huge; the $499 market for any consumer product is many orders of magnitude larger than the $999 market.  On top of that, the iPad is a potential purchase for ALL consumers.  Mac purchasers are mostly limited to two groups:  1)  current Mac owners needing to replace their existing Mac, and 2) switchers.  So almost every purchaser of a Mac has to overcome very strong personal financial resistance (“I already own a laptop, should I shell out a thousand dollars now for a replacement?”); and switchers who additionally have switching resistance. 

    For the 75 million existing iPhone/iPodTouch users there is zero switching resistance, and there is no other product that even remotely competes with the iPad.  The average iPhone/iPodTouch user easily spends $499 on something they want.  There is only one variable that could keep at least 20% of them purchasing an iPad in the first year its available:  do they want a larger screen iPhoneOS device?  I believe the answer for these 75 million people is a resounding yes.

    The only counterargument is that the iPad is a new device and consumers need to know about it and understand it before they want to buy it.  I doubt that’s true for just about any sentient being in the country given the buzz, but it is preposterous as to the 75 million iPhone/iPodTouch owners.  They may need a few months after launch to check it out , but no more than that.  Then they either buy it outright or put it high on this year’s Xmas list.

         
  • Posted: 29 January 2010 12:10 PM #21

    As to my overexuberance, let me be clear:  if the iPad had been priced at $1000 (which a lot of us had assumed), I believe it would have sold only 1 million units this year.  $499 makes it an option for lots more folks, but that price point has a particularly dramatic impact on the 75 million current user base, which is relatively affluent.  These 75 million are early-adopter Apple fans, who don’t need much encouragement to purchase an entirely new kind of Apple product at that price point.  The lack of a camera or multitasking is not going to hold any of these people back.  They don’t care about the name.  The only decision is 3G or not 3G, but either way, they’re buying.

         
  • Posted: 29 January 2010 12:20 PM #22

    I’ll say 8.5 million. It’s not so easy to ramp up production fast. At this level it means entire new factories.  Netbooks sold about 30m units in 2009 and are forecast for 40m in 2010. Aside from the difficulty of ramping up production, 20m would surely mean a run rate equalling all netbooks by the end of the year.

         
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    Posted: 29 January 2010 12:23 PM #23

    sleepygeek - 29 January 2010 04:20 PM

    I’ll say 8.5 million. It’s not so easy to ramp up production fast. At this level it means entire new factories.  Netbooks sold about 30m units in 2009 and are forecast for 40m in 2010. Aside from the difficulty of ramping up production, 20m would surely mean a run rate equalling all netbooks by the end of the year.

    Depends how long they’ve been in production smile

    But 8.5, 7.5, what the hell.. frankly 5M will blow expectations away so I don’t think we’ve got anything to worry about smile

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  • Posted: 29 January 2010 01:26 PM #24

    I’m going to say the iPad will be a run away success at 2 million units moved into the channel at the end of FY 2010.

         
  • Posted: 29 January 2010 03:06 PM #25

    The iphone has unlocked huge markets in many, many countries which were formally effectively bereft of Apple products. The iPhone continues to blaze the way, and soon the iPad will appeal hugely to the vast numbers of people who are computer illiterate or ‘resentful’....all in addition to those of us who by nature will adore its versatility for those activities we’d like to be released from our desktop/laptop for: Web / email / games / voip / photos….and we no longer need to ‘go sit in front of the TV’ whenever we want to watch a film or TV.

    I’ll predict sales figures of close to 12m in the first 12 months of the iPad being available (as long as production can keep up!).

    Remember, as mentioned in numerous posts before this one, the potential for the iPad is huge! Aside from the obvious email/web/games for those already connected, it opens the way for:

    Older, non computer literate, generations (I’ll be getting one for my father, my mother, my parents in law…...how many more families are similar?)
    Those contemplating a netbook
    Those contemplating an ebook reader
    point of sale applications
    home domotics (imagine more & more new/refurbished homes being sold with an iPad to control lights / electrics / alarm / heating / cooling / entertainment / etc.)
    education: both institutional & at home
    Doctors / dentists / hospitals / etc.
    and on,
    and on,
    and on….

         
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    Posted: 03 February 2010 01:18 PM #26

    Charles Wolf of Needham & Co. thinks that Apple will sell 2M iPads in CY2010

    In a note to investors issued Wednesday morning, analyst Charlie Wolf With Needham & Company said he believes Apple will sell two million iPads in fiscal 2010, with over half of those sales coming at the expense of the iPod touch. He expects another six million sales in 2011.

    Wolf noted that the demand for iPods and iPhones did not accelerate until “the arrival of a catalyst” for each of the products. For the iPod, it was the opening of the iTunes Music Store and porting of the media suite to Windows in 2003. And for the iPhone, it was the release of the software development kit and opening of the App Store in 2008.

    What the catalyst will be for the iPad, Wolf said, remains to be seen.

    I think he is a bit too pessimistic. But then he is being paid to be so cautious, to lose plenty of opportunities….

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    Posted: 03 February 2010 02:24 PM #27

    I’m with Mercel on 7-8M.

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  • Posted: 03 February 2010 03:46 PM #28

    If Apple only sells 2 million this year, I sincerely hope I’ve long since dumped all my AAPL. If they can’t sell 5M, the OSX platform story is broken.

    OSX platform story is NOT broken, and 5M is the minimum.

    I believe manufacturing capacity will be the limiting factor, not demand.

    I don’t believe cannibalisation of iPod or Macbook sales will be significant, except for people who’ve already got those (they might have updated their Macbook with no iPad available).

         
  • Posted: 03 February 2010 04:18 PM #29

    I think the unit sales for the rest of CY 2010 will depend on some factors under Apple’s control

    1) I think supply will be constrained at first - on purpose, not for nefarious reasons but to see how it goes, quality-wise and so on.

    2) How rapidly the iPad ramps into how many nations.  There will be the advantage of initial channel fill, but I think that will happen in a similar fashion to the international roll-out of the iPhone.

    Below are my estimates - assuming that supply is sufficient to meet these numbers:

    I think if the iPad is released in the USA by March 15, we could see between one and two million purchases in March - depending on how many people want WiFi only iPads.

    I think the April-June quarter could see a slightly higher amount - say 2-3 million.

    Back to school quarter is anyone’s guess.  Mine is 3 million.

    Holiday quarter 4-5 million.

    If supply is adequate, we could see 10 million.  That would be wild.  There will be some MacBooks not sold because of the iPad, so I do not know for sure how this shakes out.  I know I will buy an iPad instead of a MacBook.  I have been holding off on a larger Apple portable device until this annoucement.  It will do for me just fine.

         
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    Posted: 03 February 2010 05:57 PM #30

    There are a couple of possible flies in the ointment and they are the availability of screens and how many A4 chips Apple can produce. Those are the items to watch for as most of the other stuff will be off the shelf or easily manufactured.

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    Throughout all my years of investing I’ve found that the big money was never made in the buying or the selling. The big money was made in the waiting. ? Jesse Livermore