iPad: the media are navel gazing, size-comparing, puck-watching morons

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    Posted: 29 January 2010 12:45 PM #16

    Eric Landstrom - 29 January 2010 04:13 PM

    ....the street is disappointed because as cool as the iPad is, it didn’t meet the expectations of an OSX tablet.

    When hasn’t the street been disappointed in any Apple product? The iPod? the iPhone? They have all been sold off.

    I just don’t understand what the disappointment is about, when compared to the other devices out there at this price point. Heck it has over 150,000 apps available out of the box. How many do the other tablets have available?

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  • Posted: 29 January 2010 12:46 PM #17

    Eric Landstrom - 29 January 2010 04:37 PM

    Oh, lest I forget: my point is simple: AAPL was sold off because as cool as the iPad is, it didn’t meet the street’s expectations.

    Eric, you are wrong. If Apple had released everything “the street” had wanted then it would still have sold off. This is not about company value or future product value and all about dicking with the shareholders who value what Apple does and is capable of doing. This is all about screwing us.

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    Posted: 29 January 2010 12:46 PM #18

    Tommo_UK - 29 January 2010 04:27 PM
    Eric Landstrom - 29 January 2010 04:13 PM

    And when it ships without those things, you’ve set the street up for disappointment. Again. I really don’t understand the thesis of hope as an investment strategy. Look around you: AAPL is pulling back. After the past two years I’d think that everybody who trades for a living could at the very least apprehend that the street is disappointed because as cool as the iPad is, it didn’t meet the expectations of an OSX tablet.

    What’s your point Eric? If you don’t want to discuss possibilities, then why post anything speculative? The iPad could ship with NONE of the above extra functions and still not see its sales suffer one bit. Hope has nothing to do with it. Everyone who sees this thing being demo’d is going crazy over it. Regular guys I mean, ie consumers. The guys who aren’t are the pundits who didn’t get to play with one at the launch, and just don’t get what a paradigm shift in a UI to your media and data this represents.

    I didn’t realise this topic was suggesting anyone invest in AAPL based on the hope of unannounced features.. but congrats on managing to turn it into one.

    Hey I bought on iPad intro and got burned, but thats OK because I have faith Apple knows what they are doing.

    WE are a bunch of computer geeks and Mac Addicts.  95% of the population is not.  Keep in mind in spite of the many limitation of the iPhone and its so called crappy ATT services, Apple is selling them like hot cakes.

    The proof is in the numbers. Also I agree that most who are trashing it have not touched one.  One of the reasons the iPhone took off is because people saw them in the wild and fell in love after the touched them.

    This is the same reason Apple sells 50% of their Macs to new customers in their stores.  Keep in mind the iPad will be offered in many other stores as well.  This thing will embarrass the hell out of the media.

    I just wish I had more of my own money to invest, because in five years we will wonder how we did not buy the stock when the iPad was introduced the same way we wonder we we did not load up more when Apple was at 85 when the iPhone was introduced.

    The Media is jealous of Apple and WS wants to buy the stock low. They work together and make millions.

         
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    Posted: 29 January 2010 01:08 PM #19

    Eric Landstrom - 29 January 2010 04:37 PM

    To me, the purpose of your OP was to encourage enthusiasm for the iPad in the context that the street doesn’t understand the iPad and is wrong to be selling AAPL. I thought the point of your OP was to create enthusiasm for buying or holding AAPL. Please forgive me for not recognizing that your OP was directed toward the fanboy segment.

    Oh, lest I forget: my point is simple: AAPL was sold off because as cool as the iPad is, it didn’t meet the street’s expectations.

    1) No worries - you did misunderstand me. It was a rant aimed at why the iPad is misunderstood, not a comment on what to do with AAPL (though frankly this selling is the iSale of the Century)

    2) I don’t think the selling has anything to do with the iPad not “meeting expectations.” Its a pre-programmed ritual to sell-off January launches and Q1 earnings apart from the odd exception. Its just the same ol’

    In fact, the only thing that truly didn’t meet Street “expectations” was the price - that’s what’s stopped them slamming the thing into the $170s-180s by now. The $499 price point has screwed their game plan up and so far only allowed them to scalp a few bucks, not the $30-40 they were hoping for. If it doesn’t break down soon, then accumulation will begin sooner than people think. If it aint gonna collapse, then at this ttm PE and fPE its going up, and up a lot. Money committed short will go long instead. It won’t sit around and do nothing in a stock this undervalued for long.

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    Posted: 29 January 2010 01:24 PM #20

    rattyuk - 29 January 2010 04:46 PM
    Eric Landstrom - 29 January 2010 04:37 PM

    Oh, lest I forget: my point is simple: AAPL was sold off because as cool as the iPad is, it didn’t meet the street’s expectations.

    Eric, you are wrong. If Apple had released everything “the street” had wanted then it would still have sold off. This is not about company value or future product value and all about dicking with the shareholders who value what Apple does and is capable of doing. This is all about screwing us.

    Exactly: so the take-away for any product introduction is to short into the run-up of a product launch and hedge existing long positions. In other words, Apple product launches are reasonably predictable trading vehicles and because they are reasonably predictable, all the cool kids play the game.

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

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  • Posted: 29 January 2010 01:39 PM #21

    Eric Landstrom - 29 January 2010 05:24 PM

    Exactly: so the take-away for any product introduction is to short into the run-up of a product launch and hedge existing long positions. In other words, Apple product launches are reasonably predictable trading vehicles and because they are reasonably predictable, all the cool kids play the game.

    Forgive me but, er, Microsoft just reported record earnings (6.66 Bln I Believe - but that NUMBER isn’t all that beastly) and yet their stock price is down too.

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  • Posted: 29 January 2010 03:12 PM #22

    Eric wrote:  “...the street is disappointed because as cool as the iPad is, it didn?t meet the expectations of an OSX tablet.”

    So it didn’t meet the expectations of a few sad old men who can’t even see 2 months out into the future…
    or sad young men who want free, instant, intercontinental voice and webcam interconnectivity, native social networking integration, unicorns and peace and love now, dammit!! (oh wait, that’s me !)
    Talk to us about missing expectations in 2 months when the lineups around the retail stores are front page news.
    Then you can watch that news on your iPad, if you’re lucky enough to have one, and watch the profits from Apple Inc shock the sad old geezers and reward the true believers.

         
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    Posted: 29 January 2010 03:19 PM #23

    daveynb - 29 January 2010 07:12 PM

    Eric wrote:  “...the street is disappointed because as cool as the iPad is, it didn?t meet the expectations of an OSX tablet.”

    So it didn’t meet the expectations of a few sad old men who can’t even see 2 months out into the future…
    or sad young men who want free, instant, intercontinental voice and webcam interconnectivity, native social networking integration, unicorns and peace and love now, dammit!! (oh wait, that’s me !)
    Talk to us about missing expectations in 2 months when the lineups around the retail stores are front page news.
    Then you can watch that news on your iPad, if you’re lucky enough to have one, and watch the profits from Apple Inc shock the sad old geezers and reward the true believers.

    The fact is that a group of people like to short things because while long positions take forever to pile high, a few hours of fear can wipe out months of slow gains. Make of that as you will.

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
  • Posted: 29 January 2010 03:39 PM #24

    I don’t think anybody minds the money making so much, it’s the trash talking to create the money making that some of us mind.

         
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    Posted: 29 January 2010 03:47 PM #25

    What irritates me is how effective they are at manipulating stock by creating FUD.  If anything the fundamental outlook for Apple the company improved a huge amount this week with Apple the company demonstrating huge growth and their ability to deliver innovative products which are bought in droves by consumers.  If you look at Apple’s stock this week you would never guess.  Short term the fundamentals and Apple Stock have a huge disconnect.  How long will it last.  Until it ends.  The problem with trading is your guessing but you need to be right more often then your wrong.  If your investing you can sit and watch with amusement and witness how wall street screws over the small investor.

         
  • Posted: 29 January 2010 04:07 PM #26

    It seems to me that the whole Market mentality recently is based on Missouri’s “Show Me” slogan.
    It doesn’t matter a hoot what you (corporately) did yesterday or what you’ll do tomorrow…
    It’s show me the money today or screw off until you can.
    There’s seemingly less of a strategy of investing for growth and more of a “manipulate for short term profits ” manner about these days…

         
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    Posted: 29 January 2010 04:17 PM #27

    artman1033 - 29 January 2010 08:12 PM

    Multitasking:

    Don’t you think if AAPL allowed multitasking, a customer could divide their iPad into 3 or 4 screens.
    1) watching CNBC
    2) reading the NYT
    3) listening to iTunes collection in the “clouds”

    Wouldn’t the broadband demand crash AT&T?

    No I doubt they’re worried - the battery would conk out after about 30 seconds of doing all that at once :D

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    Posted: 29 January 2010 04:29 PM #28

    a few accessories can be seen here:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1prGIw9H-X0&feature=player_embedded

         
  • Posted: 29 January 2010 05:22 PM #29

    Eric Landstrom - 29 January 2010 04:37 PM

    To me, the purpose of your OP was to encourage enthusiasm for the iPad in the context that the street doesn’t understand the iPad and is wrong to be selling AAPL. I thought the point of your OP was to create enthusiasm for buying or holding AAPL. Please forgive me for not recognizing that your OP was directed toward the fanboy segment.

    Oh, lest I forget: my point is simple: AAPL was sold off because as cool as the iPad is, it didn’t meet the street’s expectations.

    In other words, it didn’t match up with what a bunch of brokers and analysts would stuff into it if they were designing it.  It doesn’t do what they think people want to do.  That is the difference between a company run by a salesman and a company run by an engineer. Brokers and analysts are salesmen. 

    The salesman tries to find products that people have wanted in the past and therefor will want in the future, perhaps with a few tweaks.  He does focus groups and surveying.  He designs a product suited to the least common denominator.  It’s the same as that product produced by every other company in the industry that is run by a salesman listening to the same customers telling him what they “need”.

    The engineer designs products based on what is possible.  He identifies synergies and crossover points.  He’s not interested in what people wanted in the past or even now.  He’s interested in changing what people want.  He doesn’t listen to them because they don’t know what they will want in the future.  He designs unique products that people only discover they want once those products are in their hands.

    Eric, the analysts and even the other industry execs don’t get Apple, never have.  When they brought in a salesman to run Apple it nearly died.  Am I an optimist?  Am I a fanboy?  I’ll plead guilty to the former, but not the latter.  I’m an informed investor with some expertise and experience in the industry and as a consumer.  That makes me an optimist about Apple by default.  How could I help but be?  But I am not a fanboy, blindly pledging loyalty to a revered figure of adoration.  I have to reserve that characterization for those who invest in companies based on past performance when it is patently obvious that those companies have no future.  Microsoft and Dell come to mind.

    Of course, if we’re talking day trading, then there is no such thing as fundamentals, engineering, vision, societal change, etc.  It’s all herd mentality.  That’s why trading has never appealed to me.  I’m a strategist, an inventor, a creator, and a businessman.  I see where the puck can go, not necessarily where it *will* go.  When the preponderance of destinations is wildly profitable and successful I invest for the long term.  Thus I’ve made a very large pile of money on Apple, buying originally at $7.49 per share on the basis of where I thought a Unix based OS could take it.  Over the last 7 years my analysis has been right to the tune of about 3600% gains.  It would be more if I hadn’t dabbled in trading.  Trading is rarely logical.  It’s mostly voodoo and luck.  Buy and hold is almost a sure thing with Apple.

    So find negative tidbits about SJ’s products and strategies if you must, but don’t expect me to assign them much importance.  Apple has had abject failures in the past, and still, it has gone from a company needing a $100M loan to keep it afloat to a $41B company in about a decade.  I’d be a fool to bet against it in the long term.

    [ Edited: 29 January 2010 05:25 PM by Zeke ]      
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    Posted: 29 January 2010 07:45 PM #30

    Zeke - 29 January 2010 09:22 PM

    So find negative tidbits about SJ’s products and strategies if you must, but don’t expect me to assign them much importance.  Apple has had abject failures in the past, and still, it has gone from a company needing a $100M loan to keep it afloat to a $41B company in about a decade.  I’d be a fool to bet against it in the long term.

    Zeke,

    Traders compartmentalize the company and what it is doing from the stock and what the stock is doing. Not once has AAPL traded at what Apple’s fundamentals suggest it should trade at because of the compartmentalization. At any-rate, a person can cheerlead the company and short the company’s stock and unless a person can understands the compartmentalization, trading will look like voodoo.

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.